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Hello, everyone and Steven Whiteside here from the uptrend, with
Hello, everyone and Steven Whiteside here from the uptrend, with this weekend's edition of stock market timing television
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You know, when these weekend presentations, I normally focus on
You know, when these weekend presentations, I normally focus on the weekly charts, the reason I do that is that, I think long-term investors should not be looking at Daily charts daily charts, have a lot of
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noise to them and there's an enormous amount of Market
noise to them and there's an enormous amount of Market noise from Monday to Friday
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So we can use those weekly charts to filter out
So we can use those weekly charts to filter out that noise so that you can sit back and relax when you're making long-term investing decisions
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And so think of a weekly chart says that noise
And so think of a weekly chart says that noise cancelling headphones to keep all that market noise out of your head while you're looking at long-term Trend changes in the market
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Now, there was only one major Trend change this week
Now, there was only one major Trend change this week and it wasn't really a trend change
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It's just the fact, the market continued to make lots
It's just the fact, the market continued to make lots of new 52-week lows
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The US market they didn't fare as well as the
The US market they didn't fare as well as the Canadian Market this week
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It was led lower by technology stocks and in the
It was led lower by technology stocks and in the technology sector, it was the chips factor that led the market lower with
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Fox index down over another 8% so that's probably not
Fox index down over another 8% so that's probably not a good sign going forward
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Now, I always look at the Vic's of the fear
Now, I always look at the Vic's of the fear index to see how it's Fairing
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And the VIX Index is still on a bicycle on
And the VIX Index is still on a bicycle on the weekly charts and so that tells us to expect prices to continue to move lower or not move up in the near future and so that
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would change our hold you and the market would change
would change our hold you and the market would change if the vics were too close blow 2487 this coming Friday
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Now, if you're watching the markets from Monday to Friday,
Now, if you're watching the markets from Monday to Friday, when we go into Monday, will be looking at the daily chart of the vix and then we'll get short-term bullish on the market
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Of course, we've been trying to get the Vicks to
Of course, we've been trying to get the Vicks to move up about 3438 so far
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If it can do that then 3750 comes into play
If it can do that then 3750 comes into play and that also means that the markets will continue to move lower Come here
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Once I take a look at those Mega trains that
Once I take a look at those Mega trains that don't seem to want to end and that we've got the us
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We've got the price of gold down on the week,
We've got the price of gold down on the week, so I'll US dollar moving up price of gold moving down, gold was down $5160
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Then looking at Vons, the 30-year Bond was lower, 30-year
Then looking at Vons, the 30-year Bond was lower, 30-year bond yields continue to move up so putting pressure on mortgages and other interest rates across the globe
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Then we're looking at the crude oil which had a
Then we're looking at the crude oil which had a big up week on the previous week and then came back down over 7%
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So we're still on a weekly Buy Signal here, that
So we're still on a weekly Buy Signal here, that would change this coming Friday with a close below, 8233 and then natural gas treading water here, inside week, closing down, just 183%
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We're trying to get down to 34375 if that holds
We're trying to get down to 34375 if that holds then that is the time and place where we could put in a bottom here but if it breaks them three 12:50 comes into play
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Of course, another 52-week low this week, I will try
Of course, another 52-week low this week, I will try to get 2250 gutters lowest 254 in, change of 250 breaks than to 1875, would be our next Target
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We seem to be stuck in the middle there, and
We seem to be stuck in the middle there, and where's the middle? Well, if you split 175 and 150 split the difference, I get to 16250
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That's where we're finding support right now, if that breaks,
That's where we're finding support right now, if that breaks, you can look two lines down and that's 150
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And that's our next Target on the weekly, charts for
And that's our next Target on the weekly, charts for the ishares for the Russell 2000
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So, if we can take out there this week slow,
So, if we can take out there this week slow, which is the new laws that we're dealing with right now for 2022, if we take that low out, then 2656 comes into play
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If you look at the daily chart, you can see
If you look at the daily chart, you can see we traded down to the split of that I've done at 2734
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So if you take out Thursday, slow, then the 2656
So if you take out Thursday, slow, then the 2656 would be our next Target to the downside for the ishares for the TSX
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What's up, finish off sales presentation? Look at a couple
What's up, finish off sales presentation? Look at a couple of more charts and
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A lots of earnings out this week and there was
A lots of earnings out this week and there was really nothing conclusive from the earnings reports and we got, for example, on Friday, the best performing stock on the S&P 500 was a bank stock, US
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Another bank stock lead, the S&P 500 to the bottom
Another bank stock lead, the S&P 500 to the bottom and the First Republic was down over 16% on Friday
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So burnings not really painting a clear picture of which
So burnings not really painting a clear picture of which way the Market's going to go next, okay? Folks that is all for this weekend's presentation
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We're still on Crash, watch here, it's still October, we're
We're still on Crash, watch here, it's still October, we're still making 52-week lows, there's nothing to say that there is some surprise might come along and Spark the market to want to aggressively sell off from
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But we're still at keeping an eye out for it,
But we're still at keeping an eye out for it, and I was still very defensive has both the daily and weekly Vicks
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend and next time, you'll
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and next time, you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning
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00:00:00Hello, everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here
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00:00:02from theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:06You know, in these weekend presentations, I normally focus on the weekly charts.
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00:00:10The reason I do that is that I think long
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00:00:12term investors should not be looking at daily charts.
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00:00:16Daily charts have a lot of noise to them
-
00:00:18and there's an enormous amount of market noise from Monday to Friday.
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00:00:21So we can use those weekly charts to filter out that noise so that you can
-
00:00:25sit back and relax when you're making long term investing decisions.
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00:00:29And so think of weekly charts as noise
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00:00:32canceling headphones to keep all that market noise out of your head while
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00:00:36you're looking for long term trend changes in the market.
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00:00:40Now, there was only one major trend change
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00:00:42this week, and it wasn't really a trend change, it's just the fact the market
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00:00:46continued to make lots of new 52 week lows.
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00:00:49The US market didn't fare as well as the Canadian market this week.
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00:00:53It was led lower by technology stocks
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00:00:55and in the technology sector, it was the chip sector that led the market
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00:00:59lower with the SOX Index down over another 8%.
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00:01:03So that's probably not a good sign going forward.
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00:01:06Now, I always look at the VIX or the Fear Index to see how it's faring.
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00:01:10And the VIX index is still on a buy signal on the weekly charts.
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00:01:14And so that tells us to expect prices
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00:01:17to continue to move lower or not move up in the near future.
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00:01:22And so that would change, our whole view on the market would change
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00:01:25if the VIX were to close below 24.87 this coming Friday.
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00:01:30Now if you're watching the markets
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00:01:31from Monday to Friday, when we go into Monday,
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00:01:34we'll be looking at the daily chart of the VIX and we'll get short term
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00:01:38bullish on the market if the Vic starts trading down and closing below $30.68. Of
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00:01:45course, we've been trying to get the VIX to move up above 34.38.
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00:01:49So far it has not been able to do that and close above that level.
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00:01:52If it can do that, then 37.50 comes into play.
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00:01:55And that also means that the markets will continue to move lower from here.
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00:02:01Next up, let's take a look at those megatrends that don't seem to want to end.
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00:02:05And we've got the US Dollar index making a new closing high for this move.
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00:02:10We've got the price of gold down
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00:02:12on the week, so US dollar moving up, price of gold moving down.
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00:02:15Gold was down $51.60 on the week, so no trend change there.
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00:02:21Then looking at bonds,
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00:02:22the 30 year bond was lower, 30 year bond yields continued to move up,
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00:02:26so putting pressure on mortgages and other interest rates across the globe.
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00:02:32Then we're looking at crude oil,
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00:02:34which had a big up week on the previous week and then came back down over 7%.
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00:02:39So we're still on a weekly buy signal here.
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00:02:41That would change this coming Friday with a close below 82 33.
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00:02:45And then natural gas treading water here Inside
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00:02:48Week closing down just 1.83%.
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00:02:52Next up, let's take a look at price
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00:02:53targets for the major index ETFs that we follow.
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00:02:56Looking at the SPY ETF, we're trying to get down to 343.75.
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00:03:01If that holds, then that is the time
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00:03:04and place where we could put in a bottom here.
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00:03:06But if it breaks, then 312.50 comes into play.
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00:03:09Then looking at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, of course, another 52 week low.
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00:03:14This week we're trying to get to 250.
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00:03:16Got as low as 254 and change.
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00:03:19If 250 breaks, then 218.75 would be our next target.
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00:03:23Then looking at the iShares
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00:03:25for the Russell 2000, we seem to be stuck in the middle there.
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00:03:28And where's the middle?
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00:03:29Well, if you split 175 and 150, split the difference, that gets you 162.50.
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00:03:36That's where we're finding support right now.
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00:03:38If that breaks, you can look two lines down and that's 150.
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00:03:41And that's our next target on the weekly
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00:03:44charts for the iShares for the Russell 2000.
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00:03:47Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we have a target of 28.13.
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00:03:54We've been sitting on that.
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00:03:55In fact, we just closed $0.03 below it this week at 28.10.
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00:04:00So if we can take out this week's low, which is the new low that we're dealing
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00:04:04with right now for 2022, if we take that low out, then 26.56 comes into play.
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00:04:11If you look at the daily chart,
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00:04:13you can see we traded down to the split of that down at 27.34.
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00:04:18So if we take out Thursday's low, then 26.56 would be our next target
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00:04:23to the downside for the iShares for the TSX 60.
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00:04:27Let's finish off today's presentation looking at a couple of more charts.
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00:04:31And let's talk about earnings.
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00:04:33Lots of earnings out this week
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00:04:35and there was really nothing conclusive from the earnings reports that we got.
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00:04:40For example, on Friday,
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00:04:41the best performing stock on the S&P 500 was a bank stock, US Bank Corp.
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00:04:47And it was up ended the day up by 3.36%.
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00:04:51At the same time, another bank stock led the S&P 500 to the bottom.
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00:04:57And First Republic was down over 16% on Friday.
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00:05:02So earnings not really painting a clear
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00:05:05picture of which way the market is going to go next.
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00:05:08OK, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:05:11We're still on crash watch here.
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00:05:13It's still October.
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00:05:14We're still making 52 week lows.
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00:05:17There's nothing to say that there some surprise might come along and spark
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00:05:21the market to want to aggressively sell off from here.
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00:05:25Go down a couple of more lines on our weekly charts.
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00:05:28That hasn't happened yet, but we're still keeping an eye out for it.
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00:05:32And we're still very defensive as both
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00:05:34the daily and weekly VIX continue to remain on, buy signals.
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00:05:38Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:05:40Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.