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Welcome to Thursday morning at Stephen Whiteside here from the
Welcome to Thursday morning at Stephen Whiteside here from the uptrend, what today's looking North American stock market trends, while we're coming up to CPI numbers at 8:30 this morning and so far, it has been a
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fairly bullish morning with the Dow futures currently out by
fairly bullish morning with the Dow futures currently out by just under 300 points
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So if people are apparently not waiting for those CPI
So if people are apparently not waiting for those CPI numbers, I think they're going to be foolish for the market now
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Wednesday turned out to be an inside day for the
Wednesday turned out to be an inside day for the US markets or whether you're looking at the Dow Diamonds, the spiders, the cues, the Russell 2000 or the micro-cap sector
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They all had an inside date on Wednesday and inside
They all had an inside date on Wednesday and inside day, of course, is a day of indecision apostate, a rest day, they're waiting for more information to come out, and that information is going to come
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So, going from an inside Day to a wide bar
So, going from an inside Day to a wide bar date on Thursday that what didn't work yesterday with
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Utilities on both sides of the Border where the big
Utilities on both sides of the Border where the big losers are the big winner in the us
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was the energy and transports and oddly enough of the
was the energy and transports and oddly enough of the biggest winners in the transport sector, and the biggest winners on the S&P 500, where the cruise lines starting off with Norwegian than Royal followed by Carnival,
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That look at the Canadian Market that we didn't get
That look at the Canadian Market that we didn't get it inside day for the TSX, but we certainly got a very small range bar day
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We haven't had a day like that since back here,
We haven't had a day like that since back here, in the middle of September
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So knew low for the TSX new low for the
So knew low for the TSX new low for the TSX 60 mid-caps held up a little better
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Small-caps held up fairly well while the micro-caps traded lower
Small-caps held up fairly well while the micro-caps traded lower on Wednesday
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It'll often show up at the top of the winners
It'll often show up at the top of the winners and the biggest loser of the day
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We had that big update last week which was followed
We had that big update last week which was followed by a big town day and that you can see we traded right up to the fly paper Channel and Reverb
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So, if you were long any, the cannabis stocks last
So, if you were long any, the cannabis stocks last week, hopefully, you had orders in above the market, to get filled because you only had the two days to take some profits
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Now what didn't work while just like in the US,
Now what didn't work while just like in the US, it was the utility sector was the big loser on Wednesday
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Look at those megatrends and one of the megatrends, of
Look at those megatrends and one of the megatrends, of course, has a rising Vicks
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Now, the Vic seems to be stuck here at 3438
Now, the Vic seems to be stuck here at 3438 and if we can't break through there, that would probably indicate that the market wants to turn around at this point
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And here's an interesting chart, here's a Vanguard all world
And here's an interesting chart, here's a Vanguard all world except the US ETF and as you can see where the bear Market using the fly paper Channel as resistance
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But right now it looks like we're trying to put
But right now it looks like we're trying to put in a double bottom here at 4375 if I we can hold that this could be the time and place where the market wants to turn around
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Those aren't willing to pay for more portfolio insurance at
Those aren't willing to pay for more portfolio insurance at the moment which means they're starting to turn from being bearish Nat bearish to to somewhat bullish doesn't mean that that's going to Mark the bottom of
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But it certainly means that we could head up from
But it certainly means that we could head up from here, maybe up two lines and then the stop for a pause before we had lower
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It's another one of our big trends and of course
It's another one of our big trends and of course it has a lot to do with the bond yields which had an inside day yesterday
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It's not telling us too much at the moment are
It's not telling us too much at the moment are you can see copper has a traded up to the fly paper Channel several times and it's acted as resistance of copper is still in a market,
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of course, as is gold and Gold's are recently traded
of course, as is gold and Gold's are recently traded up to fly paper Channel and reversed as the US dollar reversed
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So, if we can get the US dollar to start
So, if we can get the US dollar to start to come down again, we could probably get money to flow back into gold
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The right now we're on a daily cell signal and
The right now we're on a daily cell signal and then, let's finish off with energy
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We've got crude oil with an early-warning signal up there,
We've got crude oil with an early-warning signal up there, at the top of the screen, we've pulled back for the past couple of days, we're still on a by signal
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Here, we need to close on Thursday, below 8395 to
Here, we need to close on Thursday, below 8395 to give us a cell signal and for natural gas
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We're still on a cell signal, things would change on
We're still on a cell signal, things would change on Thursday with a close above 701
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If we start breaking down below 6:25, then 5:47 would
If we start breaking down below 6:25, then 5:47 would be our next Target to the downside
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I'm not going to wait for that, cuz I'm going
I'm not going to wait for that, cuz I'm going to try to get the video posted as quickly as possible
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It's going to be interesting to see if the rest
It's going to be interesting to see if the rest of the world can hold support here, of course
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And rarely do we look beyond our borders, except when
And rarely do we look beyond our borders, except when the other country show up as major news items
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Looks like they're trying to put in a double bottom
Looks like they're trying to put in a double bottom and we'll have to see if that can hold
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And of course I one of the ways is going
And of course I one of the ways is going to be able to hold as if we can get the Vicks it just start to come down
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00:00:00Good morning everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here
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00:00:04from theuptrend.com with today's look at North American stock market trends.
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00:00:08Well, we're coming up to CPI numbers
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00:00:11at 8:30AM this morning and so far it has been a fairly bullish morning with the Dow
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00:00:16futures currently up just under 300 points.
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00:00:20So people are apparently not waiting for those CPI numbers.
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00:00:23They think they're going to be bullish for the market.
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00:00:26Now Wednesday turned out to be an inside day for the US market.
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00:00:29So whether you're looking at the Dow Diamonds, the Spiders, the Q's,
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00:00:33the Russell 2000, or the Microcap sector, they all had an inside day on Wednesday.
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00:00:39An inside day of course is a day of indecision, a pause day, a rest day.
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00:00:44They're waiting for more information
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00:00:46to come out and that information is going to come out at 830 this morning.
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00:00:50So we are expecting Volatility to expand.
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00:00:53So going from an inside day to a wide bar day on Thursday.
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00:00:58Now what didn't work yesterday?
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00:01:00Utilities on both sides of the border were the big losers.
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00:01:03The big winner in the US was energy and transports.
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00:01:06And oddly enough, the biggest winners in the Transport sector.
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00:01:10And the biggest winners on the S&P 500 were the cruise lines.
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00:01:14Starting off with Norwegian, then Royal, followed by Carnival.
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00:01:17They were all up sharply yesterday, leading the S&P 500 higher.
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00:01:23Now looking at the Canadian market, we didn't get an inside day for the TSX,
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00:01:27but we certainly got a very small range bar day.
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00:01:31We haven't had a day like that since back here in the middle of September.
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00:01:36And then of course, Volatility expanded the next day
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00:01:38and that's what we're expecting to happen today.
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00:01:41No idea on the ultimate direction
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00:01:43of the market, it is bullish before the CPI announcement.
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00:01:46That does not mean it's going to be bullish after.
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00:01:49So new low for the TSX, new low for the TSX 60.
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00:01:52Mid caps held up a little better.
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00:01:54Small caps held up fairly well, while the microcaps traded lower on Wednesday.
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00:01:59Now the big winner on the TSX, big winner from a loser is cannabis stocks.
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00:02:04Once again, of course this is a very volatile sector.
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00:02:07It'll often show up at the top
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00:02:09of the winners and the biggest loser of the day, it'll just shift back and forth.
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00:02:15We had that big update last week, which was followed by a big down day.
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00:02:19And you can see we traded right up to the Flypaper Channel and reversed.
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00:02:24So if you were long any of the cannabis
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00:02:26stocks last week, hopefully you had orders in above the market to get filled because
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00:02:31you only had two days to take some profits before things went back to the norm.
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00:02:37Now what didn't work?
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00:02:38Well, just like in the US.
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00:02:39It was the utility sector was the big loser on Wednesday.
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00:02:43Let's finish off looking at those mega
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00:02:45trends and one of the mega trends of course is a rising VIX.
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00:02:48Now the VIX seems to be stuck here at 34.38
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00:02:51and if we can't break through there that would probably indicate
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00:02:56that the market wants to turn around at this point.
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00:02:59And here's an interesting chart.
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00:03:00Here's a Vanguard all world except the US
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00:03:04ETF.
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00:03:05And as you can see we're in a bear market using the Flypaper Channel as resistance.
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00:03:10But right now it looks like we're trying to put in a double bottom here at 43.75.
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00:03:15If we can hold that, this could be the time
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00:03:18and place where the market wants to turn around.
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00:03:20Remember we can't get the VIX to push
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00:03:22higher, which means traders aren't willing to pay for more portfolio insurance
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00:03:26at the moment, which means they're starting to turn
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00:03:29from being bearish net bearish to somewhat bullish.
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00:03:33It doesn't mean that that's going to mark the bottom for this particular move but it
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00:03:37certainly means that we could head up from here, maybe up two lines and then
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00:03:44stop for a pause before we head lower again.
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00:03:46We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:03:48Now of course the US dollar index moved up yesterday.
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00:03:52It's another one of our big trends.
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00:03:54And of course that has a lot to do
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00:03:56with the bond yields which had an inside day yesterday.
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00:04:00The 30 year bond had an inside day on Wednesday as well.
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00:04:04We still have copper trading in the channel so as an economic barometer
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00:04:09it's not telling us too much at the moment.
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00:04:13You can see copper has traded up
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00:04:15to the Flypaper Channel several times and it's acted as resistant.
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00:04:19So copper is still in a bear market of course, as is gold.
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00:04:23And gold recently traded up the fly paper
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00:04:25channel and reversed as the US dollar reversed.
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00:04:29So if we can get the US dollar to start
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00:04:31to come down again, we could probably get money to flow back into gold.
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00:04:34But right now we're on a daily sell signal and then let's finish off with energy.
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00:04:39We've got crude off with an early warning signal up there at the top of the screen
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00:04:44we've pulled back for the past couple of days.
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00:04:46We're still on a buy signal here.
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00:04:48We need a close on Thursday below 83.95 to give us a Sell Signal.
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00:04:53And for natural gas we're still on a sell signal.
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00:04:56Things would change on Thursday with a close above 7.01.
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00:04:59If we start breaking down below 6.25 then
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00:05:035.47 would be our next target to the downside.
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00:05:07Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:05:11The CPI numbers are coming out in a few minutes.
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00:05:13I'm not going to wait for that because I'm
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00:05:15going to try to get the video posted as quickly as possible.
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00:05:19It's going to be interesting to see if the rest of the world can hold support here.
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00:05:23Of course we're all focused on what's
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00:05:25going on in North America and rarely do we look beyond our borders except when
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00:05:30the other countries show up as major news items.
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00:05:33But here's what the rest of the world looks like right now.
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00:05:36It looks like they're trying to put
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00:05:37in a double bottom, and we'll have to see if that can hold.
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00:05:40And of course, one of the ways it's going
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00:05:42to be able to hold is if we can get the VIX to start to come down.
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00:05:46Enjoy the rest of the day.
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00:05:47Next time you'll hear my voice
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00:05:48is on Friday morning.
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00:06:18