Canadian Stock Market Trends - 06202023

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Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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It's Stepfen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com. In the premarket this morning, we've got

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stock index futures and commodities trading lower this morning,

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so we are looking for a little settling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Well, in 2023, neither the US market or

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the Canadian markets are following the seasonal patterns at the moment.

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Yesterday was officially a golf day for the Canadian market.

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US markets were closed.

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If we look at the ishares for the TSX 60,

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which are normally the most popular ETF in Canada, on Friday, we had

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nearly three and a half million shares traded.

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Yesterday, it was just over 600,000.

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So you know that Bay Street was empty yesterday.

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Interesting when you look at this chart,

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you can see that the top of that open gap has been holding us in check.

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Yes, we've traded slightly above it.

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We haven't closed above it just yet.

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So unfortunately, that open gap is holding us in check, looking for a close on

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Tuesday below $30.21 to give us a sell signal.

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Now, a quick look at the US market.

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The VIX is still on a sell signal that would change on Tuesday with a close above

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$15.14. And that would turn us from short term bullish to short term bearish.

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Now, Friday was a bearish reversal day for the US market.

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But if we look at the DOW, you can see we

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didn't close below the previous day's low, so no major damage was done.

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On the S&P 500, we had an inside day, bearish reversal day for the Nasdaq.

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Again, we didn't close below the previous

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day's low, unlike the chip sector, which actually did.

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And so the chips have been leading the US

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markets higher, and we'll have to see if that continues.

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Now, we've been watching the Regional

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Banks closely, not for investment opportunities, but just to keep an eye on

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them and see if the financial crisis is over.

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I would say it isn't.

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Yeah, we've moved off the bottom, but we haven't really gotten anywhere.

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We're still trading at levels that we started to see back in early March.

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So resistance is still holding us in check at 43.75. Yeah, we've traded above it

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slightly, but we haven't broken away from it.

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So that is a sign of caution for the market.

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And then the most actively traded stock on

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Friday was once again Tesla, which put in a new high.

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And again, we'll be watching Tesla closely every day.

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Next up, let's take a look at the major

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Canadian leveraged ETFs, and we don't follow all of them.

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Some of them are very thinly traded.

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The TSX bull is still on a buy signal that

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would change on Tuesday with a close below 18.27. And for the bear ETF, we're looking

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for a close above 7.10 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.

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That is certainly possible.

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Now, not expecting any trend changes in

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the US market for the S&P 500 or for the Nasdaq on Tuesday.

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Need to get a little closer to those

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channel lines before we're concerned about a change in trend.

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Now, Energy stocks.

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The bull gave us a sell signal last week.

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The bear gave us a buy signal.

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No trend has really started just yet.

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And then looking at the gold miners, the bear ETF still on a buy signal.

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Gold is trading lower this morning, so I

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would expect this ETF to continue to move higher on Tuesday.

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And then, of course, looking at the bull

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ETF, we need to close on Tuesday above $14.17. Not expecting that to happen given

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what we see in the pre market for stocks and for the price of gold.

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Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian financial sector.

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Yes, we do have the financial index and the bank index both back on buy signals.

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Unfortunately, the bank index has run into the top of the open gap.

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Yeah, we traded above it,

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so it has been filled, but it's still acting as resistance up here at 3,800.

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Now, the most actively traded financial stock for Monday's trading action was

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Manulife, which is still holding support at $25.

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If that breaks, then $24.22 is our next target to the downside.

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Now, the national bank had a nice pop, but unfortunately, it ran into resistance at

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100, and the pros still have not taken control.

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We have the TD Bank, which is also dealing with an open gap, and you can see there at

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81.25, the top of the gap is just below that, and that's holding us in check.

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Again, we've had a buy signal here.

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Things are blue, but the pros still have not taken control.

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At least they're not fighting us, but

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unless they take control, the trend is not going to last very much longer.

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Power Corp was the next most actively traded financial.

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Yes, it generated a buy signal on Thursday.

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Unfortunately, it pulled back on Monday.

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So a close below 34.90 on Monday would give us a sell signal.

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Again, the pros have not taken the bait so far.

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And last up, Bank of Nova Scotia.

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It's been treading water for quite a while.

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Pros in the public are intertwined.

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We're stuck in a range here, so we're looking for a breakout of the range.

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You can see the 100 day moving average has been holding us in check.

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We've got the 200, the 100, the 50, and the 10 day moving averages here.

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So it is the 100 day moving average that

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has held us in check for the past month or so.

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And if you want to give the stock a bit more breathing room, then look for a

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breakout above $68 to tell us that new money is coming back into this stock.

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Let's finish off today's presentation taking a look at Canadian Gold stocks and

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starting off with the TSX Global Gold Index.

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It had an inside day on Monday.

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We saw a new closing low yesterday for Barrick.

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We've got Agnico Eagles still on a sell signal inside day yesterday.

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Inside day for B2 Gold.

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Then we had a lower close yesterday for Franco Nevada.

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Kinross has been holding up very well over the past couple of weeks treading

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sideways, looking for a close on Tuesday above $6.55 to give us a buy signal.

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New gold inside day on Monday, no change

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there, no change for Wheaton, still on a sell signal.

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Now, not all gold stocks are on sell signals.

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The major ones are. There's a lot of other ones that are not.

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I thought this one was interesting, Sentera.

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You can see that it traded up to the top of the open gap and pulled back.

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It hasn't started to fall apart just yet.

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But if the top of the open gap is going to

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act as resistance, maybe the bottom of this gap here is going to act as support.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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But not all gold stocks are on sell signals, but certainly the major ones are.

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And last up for the price of gold itself,

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we're looking for a close on Tuesday above $1983.60. So far, that's not what's

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working out in the premarket as gold is down about $6 last time I checked.

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Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning.

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Looking for a lower open on Tuesday. Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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