Trading Commodities - 09052023

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, things are

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fairly quiet, stock index futures and commodities are slightly below fair value.

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The only standout, I think, at the moment

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is the price of gold, which is down about $11 in the premarket.

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In this morning's presentation, I thought we'd focus on the major commodities that

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we track, starting with crude oil, which made a higher high on Friday.

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It's been on a buy signal for the last four trading days.

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We are punching through to higher highs with the pros taking control.

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You can see the Fly Paper Channel is acting as support.

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The traders have been buying the dip.

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We're trying to punch through 84.38. It

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doesn't look like we're going to do that at the open on Monday morning.

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If we can do that, then 87.50 comes into play.

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Now looking at natural gas, not really

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participating right now, still on a sell signal.

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Things would change on Tuesday if natural were to close above $3.21. Unfortunately,

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the pros are not looking to take control on Tuesday morning.

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Back in August, we did trade up to the 100-day moving average.

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If we can take that out in September, then the 200-day moving average

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would certainly come into focus and that would be an enormous move for natural gas.

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Looking at energy stocks, starting in the Canadian market, looking at the

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XEG, we made a new high on Friday, trading up to 17.19. Congratulations.

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Hopefully, you took some money off the

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table at 171.9. If we can keep going from here, then 1797 comes into play.

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Suncor made a new high on Friday.

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We're trading up to the 46.88 level on the

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weekly chart that has held us in check in late 2022 and in 2023.

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If we can take that out this week, then

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$50 does come into play, and that would take us back up to the highs from 2022.

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To looking at the US market, looking at the XLE, we made a new high on Friday,

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trying to head towards 92.19. That is our next target to the upside.

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Devon Energy has been on a buy signal for a week now.

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It filled an open gap on Friday, so that gap has been filled.

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Now we're looking to see if we can take out the recent high.

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We are stuck here at 53.13. If we can take

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out that recent high, then 56.25 comes into play.

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To get to 56.25, unfortunately, we'd have to take out the 200-day moving average,

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and that might may be difficult at the moment.

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Again, if we can do that, then on the weekly chart, you can see 56.25 is our

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next target, and above that is 62.50 if we can keep going from there.

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Let's move from energy to the mining

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sector, and we'll take a look at gold miners and the price of gold this morning.

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Both are not looking very healthy at the moment.

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We have made a major lower high in July,

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and we made a lower low in August, so that pattern is not very helpful.

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Across the bottom of the screen, you can see an elongated Pressure Zone here, and

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that's telling us that this particular symbol is off its game.

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We were looking for the market to bounce around here and try to run up and to see

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if we could retest the recent highs, but that didn't happen.

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That opportunity passed.

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Then we looked at another opportunity,

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which gave us a lower high and a nice early warning signal up there.

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I'm not too excited about the precious

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metals at the moment with the price of gold really dragging its heels.

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If we look at the right side chart here, we are on a buy signal right now.

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That would change on Tuesday with a close

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below $1941.70. We are trading above the 1937.50 level, trying to get to $2,000.

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We need to take out Friday's high to do that.

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Unfortunately, we're stuck at the convergence of the major moving averages.

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That's holding us in check.

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When we look at the GDX, again, the pattern is very similar: the elongated

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Pressure Zone, the lower high, the lower low.

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This is all very bearish.

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Yes, we're projecting higher prices here,

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but we're projecting higher prices on a very weak symbol at the moment.

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We've run up to 29.69 and stop.

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If we can take out last week's high than 31.25 would come into play for the GDX.

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We're currently stuck at the 50-day moving

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average, and that is holding us in check at the moment.

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Now, the US's biggest gold mining stock,

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of course, is a two-month, the only one in the S&P 500.

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This pattern doesn't look too different.

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We had a major low back here in May.

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We made a lower high in July.

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We made a lower low in August.

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And so, again, very bearish chart pattern.

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Yes, we had a nice Pressure Zone.

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We're at the bottom of the Panic Zones.

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We are projecting higher prices for a very weak symbol.

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You can see we're on a buy signal right now, but it's not looking very healthy at

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the moment, and certainly the pros have not taken control.

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So when you get a buy signal after a

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couple of days, if the pros don't come in to take control, that's not a good sign.

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You can see we had a bearish reversal day on Friday.

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The Fly Paper Channel is still pointing down.

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If we were able to take out last week's high and move up, then you can see we have

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a range, say from 4,175 to 43.75. I think that would hold us in check if we

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were able to continue to move higher from here.

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With gold down $11 in the premarket this

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morning, we're not expecting that to happen.

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Now, Canadian gold stocks look very similar, nothing different here.

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The elongated Pressure Zone, the lower

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high, the lower low, all of that is bearish.

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We are on a buy signal.

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Things would change on Tuesday.

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If we were to close below $16.82 for the

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XGD, and you can see we had a bearish reversal signal last week.

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The pros did take control for a few days and then gave up on Friday.

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We traded up to the 1719 level last week, tried to break out above it.

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If we can take out last week's high, then

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1797 would be our next target to the upside.

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Then looking at Barrick, the most actively

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traded Canadian gold stock, the pattern is pretty similar, but we

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actually put in a higher low in August, so a little bit different here.

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Not sure it's going to help much with

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what's going on with the price of gold itself.

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We are on a buy signal right now.

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Things would change on Tuesday with a

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closed blow, 21.54. We've traded up to the 50-day moving average.

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That's holding us in check so far and the bottom of the Fly Paper Channel.

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I think this is probably as high as we can go at the moment.

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Let's finish off just looking at the VIX and the S&P 500.

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The VIX is still falling.

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That is supportive for higher stock prices.

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You can see in August, we ran up to the 200-day moving average and stopped.

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For a major decline in the stock market to happen in the month of September or

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October, we need to break out above that 200 day moving average.

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Now, the S&P 500, Spider ETF traded up to the 453.13 level on Friday and stopped.

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That was our next price target.

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We got as high as 453.67. So if you had

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orders in to get filled, congratulations, they got filled on Friday.

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For us to continue to move higher from here, the July high was up there at

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459.44. If we were able to take that out, then that brings 4.68.75 into play.

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Not expecting to head in those directions on Tuesday morning, but it's certainly

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doable in the month of September, which we expect a lot of volatility.

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On the downside on Monday, to generate a sell signal for the S&P 500 ETF, we need a

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close below 442.10. Of course, the first thing I look for is a close below the

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previous days low, and we'll be watching for that on Wednesday.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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We're looking for a little bit of selling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.