Stock Market Timing Television - 07282023

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Good morning everyone and welcome to Friday Morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the uptrend.com in the pre market this

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morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value.

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We do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30.

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That could certainly change that.

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We also have gold trading higher on Friday morning.

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I printed off a couple of weekly charts this morning just to see where we were.

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And for the week, the Dow is up just .16 percent or 55 points.

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The S&P 500 is up .02% and possibly putting in a bearish reversal week.

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We just have to see how Friday ends then.

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Looking at the Nasdaq 100, a little more strength there, up a quarter of a percent.

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Now last week we put in a bearish reversal

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week, so that signal is going to stay there until we close above last week's

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high, which of course we haven't done so just yet.

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Then the TSX not looking very good here.

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Possible bearish reversal week.

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We're down zero .79%, so less than 1%.

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But we ran up to resistance and looks like

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that resistance is still holding us in check.

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And if we look at the pros and the public across the bottom, starting with the Dow S

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and P 500, Nasdaq 100, and then looking at the TSX, you can see the TSX is the

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weakest of the major indices that we follow.

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Now looking at the fear index, it had a wild day yesterday.

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It got pushed down to new lows on US GDP news and then ran right up and ended the

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day on a buy signal off of news from the bank of Japan.

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Now we are still under the Fly Paper

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Channel, so nobody's going to get overly anxious just yet.

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The VIX is starting to trend higher.

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We'll have to see if that trend continues on Friday.

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And of course, if we start breaking out above the Fly Paper channel, that would

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certainly be a big negative sign for the market.

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Now it was news from the bank of Japan

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that caused the market to shake in the afternoon.

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The Japanese yen moved up.

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We saw huge moves in other currencies,

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including the US dollar index, which traded all the way down to the lower

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channel line yesterday before breaking out above this week's high.

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Similar situation in the opposite direction for the euro.

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So a lot of movement there.

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And then we saw bond yields, whether

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you're looking at the five, the ten or the 30 year bond yields, all moved up

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yesterday and that's what shook the market.

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Looking at the price of gold, it was down yesterday over $24.

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It is up $9 last time I checked in.

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The pre market price of silver also came down back on a sell signal.

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And so when we look at the Dow, the Dow

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traded down to the upper channel line yesterday, so holding up fairly well.

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Looking for a close on Friday below 349.35 then looking at the SPY, we're looking for

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a close on Friday below 450.53 to give us a sell signal for the Nasdaq 100.

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And again, we're looking to see if we can

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break out above last week's high to get rid of that bearish reversal signal.

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We're still on a buy signal here that

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would change on Friday with a close below 375.64.

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Semiconductors still on a sell signal, no change there.

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There is news in the semiconductor sector

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this morning with intel coming out with earnings.

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And of course, the numbers I'm going to

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talk about are old by the time you see this video.

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But we're coming into Friday on a buy signal.

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We're trading up over 7% in the pre market.

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And if we look at our next price target, we are trading above that right now.

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So if you've got an order in at 35.94, that's going to get filled at the open.

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Our next mathematical target is 37.50, but

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we're trading just under the high from back in June of 37.11. So I wouldn't have

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had an order in at 37.50. I would have had it in just below the 30 7.11 area, and

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that could possibly get filled this morning after the market opens.

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Now, the TSX pulled back yesterday.

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It closed below the previous day's low, which is not a good sign.

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And so on Friday, we're looking for a

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close below 30.95. We are trading higher in the pre market this morning, so we'll

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have to see how the market reacts after those economic numbers come out.

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Again, we're coming up to month end, so

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automatic money is going to hit the market.

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That usually provides a cushion if there is any significant bad news.

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Now, I got a question yesterday about Ark

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Innovations and the ETFs have traded with the market.

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No doubt about it.

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They've had a nice move up on Ark Innovations.

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You can see across the bottom of the

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screen when we had low risk buying opportunities.

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I've got no problem with anybody trading any of the Arc Innovations ETFs.

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My criticism has always been about her

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money management skills and the fact she gave up all of this profit.

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The ETF was trading up at 160. Yesterday

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, it closed at 46.80. That's where my criticism is.

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Her stock picking skills are pretty incredible.

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She's somebody interesting to follow.

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But she did leave all that money on the table.

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Looking at commodity prices, crude oil

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made a new high for this move, heading up to the highs from back in April.

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We've got gasoline making a new closing

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high yesterday, not a good sign for the inflation picture.

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And natural gas pulled back yesterday.

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It's back on a sell signal.

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Natural gas, of course, known as the hardest thing to trade.

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Looking at the TSX energy sector, we ran

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up to our next price target at 15.63. This is where we topped out in April.

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We pulled back that gave us a bearish

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reversal signal, did not close below the previous day's low.

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So not overly concerned just yet.

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Similar price pattern for the US.

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For the spider ETF.

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We're trying to get to 87. 50.

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We're able to do that in April.

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We were not able to do that yesterday.

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And again, while prices reversed, we didn't close below the previous day's low.

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Always one of the first things I look for.

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Now, the GLD rolled over yesterday,

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joining Palladium already on a sell signal.

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Platinum is back on a sell signal, so is the price of Silver.

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And then we've got gold stocks in the GDX rolling over.

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Back on a sell signal.

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The SIL is back on a sell signal and the

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XGD is back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.

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Let's finish off with a quick look at technology stocks starting on the TSX.

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BlackBerry is still on a sell signal.

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Constellation Software still on a buy signal.

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That would change on Friday with a close below yesterday's low.

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Lightspeed still on a sell signal.

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Shopify still on a sell signal.

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No change there.

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Now, Apple reversed yesterday, still on a

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buy signal here that would change on Friday with a close below 191.76. Amazon

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drove up to the upper channel line yesterday before reversing and closing

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just up a dime on the day, so no change in trend.

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Meta, of course, was the big news

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yesterday, but that is a very bearish looking bar.

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We did trade higher and then came back.

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We actually closed below our price target,

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311.10. And that's a bearish sign of bearish reversal day for Meta for sure.

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And if we look at what the pros and the

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public are doing, they're not going in the right direction right now.

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So, looks like we had some short covering

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yesterday and then some selling going into the close.

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Similar situation for Alphabet.

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On Thursday, it popped, on Wednesday, it got some fall through to the upside at the

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open, but then ended the day just up $0.13. So we ran up, hit our next price

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target at 131.25, and that is holding us in check at the moment.

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Yesterday was a bearish reversal day for

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Alphabet, and you can see the pros and the public not going in the right direction.

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Now, Microsoft made a new low for this move, as did Netflix.

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Nvidia traded through the upper channel

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line during the day, but came back and closed in the channel.

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So no buy signal just yet for Nvidia.

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That could change on Friday with intel trading up in the pre market.

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And last up, Tesla ended the day lower still on a sell signal.

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Things would change on Friday for Tesla with a close above 277.33.

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Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.

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