Stock Market Timing Television - 05252023

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Good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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theuptrend.com with today's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are mixed.
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We've got the Nasdaq up around 2% on news
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from Nvidia, while the Dow and the TSX are currently trading below fair value.
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So we are looking for a mixed open with a
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heavy emphasis on the technology sector on Thursday morning.
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Now we are coming up to a three day long weekend in the US.
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Markets will be closed on Monday.
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That doesn't guarantee success, but it
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certainly takes some downward pressure off the market if the market gets bad news.
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Now the market is dealing with some good
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news in the technology sector this morning.
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It's also seeing some bad news.
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Some of it is US focused, but we have been waiting for the US to go into recession
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and it looks like Germany is leading the Europeans into recession right now.
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So that's happening over in Europe.
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We certainly expect it to happen in North America in the not so distant future.
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We just don't know exactly when.
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Now on Wednesday's trading action, the TSX
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continued to move lower, gapping lower on Wednesday.
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We also saw the Dow make a new low for this move.
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We have the S and P 500 back on a sell
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signal as of Wednesday's close and the Nasdaq still on a buy signal here.
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It pulled back yesterday just to tick over half a percent.
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It is going to be zooming higher at the open.
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So our semiconductors, semiconductors pulled back into the channel yesterday.
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They're up in the pre market looking at the Semiconductor ETF.
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Not as much as you would expect considering that Nvidia, which traded back
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in the channel yesterday, has popped all the way up over $375.
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Now it's impossible to tell from sitting
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on the sidelines what exactly is happening at the moment.
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Is new money coming in to buy Nvidia
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shares or is it part of the $9 billion that it's currently short Nvidia?
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Are those people coming in to cover their losing short positions?
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Now why were they short the stock?
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Well, for some reason they believe that
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Nvidia was overvalued and they were expecting it to come back down.
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Well if it was overvalued yesterday and they were happy shorting the stock,
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wouldn't they be more happy today now that the stock is even more overvalued?
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According to their math, to me it's fuzzy logic.
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There was no reason to be short this stock on a short term or long term basis.
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But that's just the way some people operate.
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So if I owned Nvidia shares this morning
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and I've taken money off the table last at 312.
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50, I may have had an order in at 343.
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75 and 375.
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If you had orders in at those levels,
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they're going to get filled at the open at the opening price.
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If I didn't have any orders in, I'd want to sell at least half of my remaining
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position this morning because it's really a coin flip to figure out whether this is
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new money coming in or just people shorting.
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Now, if it's just people shorting, once
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they've covered their shorts, they have no reason to buy the stock again.
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So here we are making a critical decision.
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If you're an Nvidia shareholder, I'd be
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selling some shares at the open on Thursday morning.
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Now, here's another headline that may affect the market over the coming weeks.
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Fitch is putting the US.
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Credit ratings on credit watch.
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Other credit rating agencies are probably going to do this over the next few days,
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and that's probably not going to be good for the stock market or the economy.
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Now. The US.
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Dollar index continued to move higher on Wednesday.
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Bonds continued to move lower.
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So no change in those major trends.
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Now, speaking of major trends, let's take a look at commodities.
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And copper made a new low for this move.
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So for those people who believe copper is a good global economic indicator, it's not
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going in the right direction at the moment.
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And we've got the TSX Global Mining Index and the S&P 500
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Metals and Mining ETF both making new lows for this move on Wednesday.
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Then, looking at the price of gold, it closed lower yesterday.
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Gold stocks looking at the GDX or the XGD, both traded lower yesterday.
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The price of silver also moved down more aggressively than the price of gold.
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And silver stocks also moved down on Wednesday.
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Looking at the energy sector, the USO.
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Closed higher yesterday.
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Gasoline, unfortunately, continued to move
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higher on Wednesday, and natural gas was up.
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Natural gas still in the channel, looking
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for a close on Thursday below 6.79 to give us a new sell signal.
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And looking at energy stocks in Canada, small pullback inside day on Wednesday.
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Looking at the US.
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They closed higher, just under half a percent on the day.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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It looks like we're going to have a big pop in the technology sector on Thursday.
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Not sure if the rest of the market is going to go along for the ride.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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