Stock Market Timing Television - 05252023
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    • 00:00:00
      Good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday Morning.
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      It's Stephen Whiteside here from
    • 00:00:04
      theuptrend.com with today's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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      In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are mixed.
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      We've got the Nasdaq up around 2% on news
    • 00:00:16
      from Nvidia, while the Dow and the TSX are currently trading below fair value.
    • 00:00:21
      So we are looking for a mixed open with a
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      heavy emphasis on the technology sector on Thursday morning.
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      Now we are coming up to a three day long weekend in the US.
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      Markets will be closed on Monday.
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      That doesn't guarantee success, but it
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      certainly takes some downward pressure off the market if the market gets bad news.
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      Now the market is dealing with some good
    • 00:00:43
      news in the technology sector this morning.
    • 00:00:46
      It's also seeing some bad news.
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      Some of it is US focused, but we have been waiting for the US to go into recession
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      and it looks like Germany is leading the Europeans into recession right now.
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      So that's happening over in Europe.
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      We certainly expect it to happen in North America in the not so distant future.
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      We just don't know exactly when.
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      Now on Wednesday's trading action, the TSX
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      continued to move lower, gapping lower on Wednesday.
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      We also saw the Dow make a new low for this move.
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      We have the S and P 500 back on a sell
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      signal as of Wednesday's close and the Nasdaq still on a buy signal here.
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      It pulled back yesterday just to tick over half a percent.
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      It is going to be zooming higher at the open.
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      So our semiconductors, semiconductors pulled back into the channel yesterday.
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      They're up in the pre market looking at the Semiconductor ETF.
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      Not as much as you would expect considering that Nvidia, which traded back
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      in the channel yesterday, has popped all the way up over $375.
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      Now it's impossible to tell from sitting
    • 00:01:55
      on the sidelines what exactly is happening at the moment.
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      Is new money coming in to buy Nvidia
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      shares or is it part of the $9 billion that it's currently short Nvidia?
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      Are those people coming in to cover their losing short positions?
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      Now why were they short the stock?
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      Well, for some reason they believe that
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      Nvidia was overvalued and they were expecting it to come back down.
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      Well if it was overvalued yesterday and they were happy shorting the stock,
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      wouldn't they be more happy today now that the stock is even more overvalued?
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      According to their math, to me it's fuzzy logic.
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      There was no reason to be short this stock on a short term or long term basis.
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      But that's just the way some people operate.
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      So if I owned Nvidia shares this morning
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      and I've taken money off the table last at 312.
    • 00:02:47
      50, I may have had an order in at 343.
    • 00:02:50
      75 and 375.
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      If you had orders in at those levels,
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      they're going to get filled at the open at the opening price.
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      If I didn't have any orders in, I'd want to sell at least half of my remaining
    • 00:03:01
      position this morning because it's really a coin flip to figure out whether this is
    • 00:03:06
      new money coming in or just people shorting.
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      Now, if it's just people shorting, once
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      they've covered their shorts, they have no reason to buy the stock again.
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      So here we are making a critical decision.
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      If you're an Nvidia shareholder, I'd be
    • 00:03:22
      selling some shares at the open on Thursday morning.
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      Now, here's another headline that may affect the market over the coming weeks.
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      Fitch is putting the US.
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      Credit ratings on credit watch.
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      Other credit rating agencies are probably going to do this over the next few days,
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      and that's probably not going to be good for the stock market or the economy.
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      Now. The US.
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      Dollar index continued to move higher on Wednesday.
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      Bonds continued to move lower.
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      So no change in those major trends.
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      Now, speaking of major trends, let's take a look at commodities.
    • 00:03:58
      And copper made a new low for this move.
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      So for those people who believe copper is a good global economic indicator, it's not
    • 00:04:06
      going in the right direction at the moment.
    • 00:04:09
      And we've got the TSX Global Mining Index and the S&P 500
    • 00:04:15
      Metals and Mining ETF both making new lows for this move on Wednesday.
    • 00:04:20
      Then, looking at the price of gold, it closed lower yesterday.
    • 00:04:24
      Gold stocks looking at the GDX or the XGD, both traded lower yesterday.
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      The price of silver also moved down more aggressively than the price of gold.
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      And silver stocks also moved down on Wednesday.
    • 00:04:37
      Looking at the energy sector, the USO.
    • 00:04:39
      Closed higher yesterday.
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      Gasoline, unfortunately, continued to move
    • 00:04:43
      higher on Wednesday, and natural gas was up.
    • 00:04:46
      Natural gas still in the channel, looking
    • 00:04:48
      for a close on Thursday below 6.79 to give us a new sell signal.
    • 00:04:53
      And looking at energy stocks in Canada, small pullback inside day on Wednesday.
    • 00:04:58
      Looking at the US.
    • 00:05:00
      They closed higher, just under half a percent on the day.
    • 00:05:03
      Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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      It looks like we're going to have a big pop in the technology sector on Thursday.
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      Not sure if the rest of the market is going to go along for the ride.
    • 00:05:14
      Enjoy the rest of your day.
    • 00:05:15
      Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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