Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 20230122

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Hello everyone, and welcome to this

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weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.

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Well, it looks like a nice snowy evening out there.

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Stock index futures have opened for trading.

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They are down just slightly below fair value.

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But certainly there's no disturbance in the force on Sunday evening so far.

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Things, of course, can start to change once the Asian markets start to open up.

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The big news on Friday was Netflix, which pulled the markets higher, and the markets

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basically ended very positively going into Friday night.

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So there's Netflix gapping higher.

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Now, if you were trading Netflix, you still have a partial position.

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You probably got rid of some at 312 50 on Thursday.

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It wasn't looking very good.

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We were coming back down to the 312 50 level.

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But of course, if you had orders in the

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market up there at 343 75, they got filled on Friday.

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So congratulations.

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Now you want to make sure you've got an

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order in to sell another partial position up there at 375.

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And of course, I, you know, strongly recommend that you if you're going to put

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an order in up at that level, you put it in below the 375 level,

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say 374 50, something around that, just to play it safe.

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But we'll just have to wait and see.

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Of course, on the other side, if Netflix turns down from here, then we'll use the

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right side chart to liquidate the remainder of an open position in Netflix.

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Now, Netflix is part of the communications

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services sector, and it led the markets higher on Friday.

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And of course, this sector includes Meta

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and Google, as well as a lot of other communications companies.

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Now, Netflix is in the Nasdaq.

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It certainly led the Nasdaq higher.

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Netflix is also in the S&P 500.

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And up at the top of the winners list on

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the S&P 500 were a lot of consumer financial iwinner'snstitutions.

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So SVB was the big winner.

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It was up over six and a half percent,

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filled that open gap, and then started to pull back.

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300 can still act as resistance.

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We traded through it for a few minutes, and our next mathematical target is 312.

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50.

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We certainly traded above that level back in October.

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In a lot of cases, investors just want to

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get rid of their money when they see it up to an open gap

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a lot of people just give up.

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And so this is an inflection point.

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This is a time and place where we find out if this nice up move off the 218.

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75 level has attracted new money, or is

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this just old money trying to get out up at these levels?

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We'll just have to wait and see a couple

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of more financial institutions that did really well on Friday.

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SYF had a nice day on Friday.

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Noticed Thursday, though, was a rather shaky day.

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Traded right down to the previous low

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before reversing and then closing right in the channel.

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So we did not get a sell signal on Thursday.

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Friday, nice big update.

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Similar situation for a signature bank

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trading all the way down to the lower channel line on Thursday.

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And then nice big move up on Friday.

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And then Capital One Financial again

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traded through the lower channel line on Thursday, didn't close below it.

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And on Friday we had the nice big move up back up to the high from Wednesday.

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Now looking north of the border, it wasn't financial institutions or streaming

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services that led the market higher, it was Shopifybut .

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So that would be Ecommerce and then it was uranium with Cameco.

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Now Cameco broke out above the recent high

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and tagged our next price target up there at 35.

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94. Congratulations.

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If you had an ordering up at that level now with part of your remaining position,

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you want to put an order in up just under 37.

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50.

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That's our next price target to the upside.

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Let's take a break from daily and weekly charts and look at the monthly chart.

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We've just finished the third week of January and the TSX is having a nice start

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to the year, but has not broken out and made new highs for this move.

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We're looking right now with the gains of

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5.77%. Then you can see it's a nice inside month for the Dow, just 69%.

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Then we've got the S&P 500 also having an

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inside month up 3.47%. And then looking at the Nasdaq, the Biggest Loser is now the

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biggest winner, but it's kind of ha100-weekaveragesrd to notice.

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So we are up 6.21% at the moment.

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So let's talk about the big pothole that

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everyone's watching there's, the big downtrend line on the weekly chart here.

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We're trading up to that line right now.

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The bulls are saying, hey, no, we just made a recent higher low.

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That has got to be bullish.

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Well, everybody's waiting to see if we can make higher highs.

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And of course we're also stuck at the moving averages.

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So on the weekly chart, the 50 and the 100 week moving average have converged and

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that's where we're finding resistance right now.

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On the daily charts, we ran up to the 200

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day moving average during the week and then pulled back.

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So the market is waiting to see if we take

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another run at that moving average or if we have failed.

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And that's it for the time being.

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We certainly had a nice recovery day on

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Friday, but as you can see, we did not break out and make any new ground.

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Now, mathematically speaking, our next target is 40 62 50.

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So 4000 is a big round number and we have been able to trade above that.

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And so that may not be such an important number right now.

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We're also looking at the high, the recent high, which is up there at 4089 50.

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So those are two numbers that we're going

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to be keeping an eye on this week to see if the market gets back up over 4000.

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And then what does it do once it gets back over 4000?

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Next up, let's take a look at the VIX.

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And the VIX has been supported for higher stock prices for a while now.

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That would change this coming Friday if we were to close above 24 48.

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And you can see that the VIX also had an inside week looking at a daily chart.

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And last weekend we talked about the fact

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that we had traded below 1875, but had not broken away from that level just yet.

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So we traded back into the channel this

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week and now you can see the range has shrunk.

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We were originally looking at $25 on the high end down to 1875.

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Now we've got 21 88 acting as resistance.

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So it's 1875 to 21 88.

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And of course, if we break out above 21 88, that would certainly give us a daily

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buy signal if we closed above the 21 35 level on Monday.

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And of course, if that doesn't happen on

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Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Next up, we're looking at commodity prices

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and we got crude oil back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close, joining

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gasoline, which is on its fourth week of a weekly buy signal.

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And then natural gas continued to move lower down another nearly 7% on the week.

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Looking at the metals, the GLD made a new

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high for this move, moving up towards the 181.

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25 level.

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There's an open gap over here that we've basically closed.

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Now we're looking to see if we can get up to 181.

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25.

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We've got palladium holding 156. 25.

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We've got platinum stuck at 100, coming back down to 93.75 during the week.

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So we're looking to see if 93.

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75 can hold.

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If we take out 100, then 106.25 comes into play.

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Then looking at silver, silver is stuck in

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an open gap, which of course now has been filled.

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But there's a lot of resentment at that price level.

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A lot of people feel screwed.

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And so now we're up in that price level.

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And unlike gold, which has continued to move higher, we've got silver stock.

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If silver can take out the high from a couple of weeks ago, then 23.

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44 does come into play.

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We're almost done.

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The last thing I wanted to focus on was the ARK Innovations ETFs and its holdings.

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Now, if you take a car, say a $40,000 car and you have an accident and your

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insurance company writes it off, if you take it to the wreckers and they give you

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$500 for it and then the wreckers turn around and sell it.

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For more than that, it is still a car that

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has been written off, even though the value does increase in price.

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And so here we're seeing a whole bunch of

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very positive articles about the ARK Innovations and about Cathie Wood and

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about how well she's doing in 2023, well, that really doesn't matter.

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It's very hard to see on the chart how well she's doing.

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She does have some winners.

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And we've seen exact science move up nicely over the past couple of weeks.

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We've seen the tenx genomics move up over the past couple of weeks.

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We've even got Coinbase back on our weekly buy signal.

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At the end of the day, it's still a car

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wreck, and Tesla is one of her biggest holdings.

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And woo it's up two weeks in a row, that is not a significant trend.

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We'll just have to wait and see if anything develops over time.

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But, yeah, she's getting a lot of positive

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media right now, but remember, she drove the train off the tracks.

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And, yeah, mathematically speaking, she is doing really well in 2023.

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As long as you didn't know her in 2022.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this evening's presentation.

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Stock index futures are slightly below fair value, and so that tells us there

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hasn't been any scary news that's come out over the weekend.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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The next time you'll hear one of our voices will be Tuesday morning.

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Thank you.

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