-
00:00:00Hello everyone, and welcome to this
-
00:00:01weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
-
00:00:04Well, it looks like a nice snowy evening out there.
-
00:00:07Stock index futures have opened for trading.
-
00:00:10They are down just slightly below fair value.
-
00:00:13But certainly there's no disturbance in the force on Sunday evening so far.
-
00:00:18Things, of course, can start to change once the Asian markets start to open up.
-
00:00:23The big news on Friday was Netflix, which pulled the markets higher, and the markets
-
00:00:28basically ended very positively going into Friday night.
-
00:00:32So there's Netflix gapping higher.
-
00:00:34Now, if you were trading Netflix, you still have a partial position.
-
00:00:37You probably got rid of some at 312 50 on Thursday.
-
00:00:41It wasn't looking very good.
-
00:00:42We were coming back down to the 312 50 level.
-
00:00:45But of course, if you had orders in the
-
00:00:47market up there at 343 75, they got filled on Friday.
-
00:00:51So congratulations.
-
00:00:53Now you want to make sure you've got an
-
00:00:54order in to sell another partial position up there at 375.
-
00:00:58And of course, I, you know, strongly recommend that you if you're going to put
-
00:01:02an order in up at that level, you put it in below the 375 level,
-
00:01:07say 374 50, something around that, just to play it safe.
-
00:01:13But we'll just have to wait and see.
-
00:01:15Of course, on the other side, if Netflix turns down from here, then we'll use the
-
00:01:19right side chart to liquidate the remainder of an open position in Netflix.
-
00:01:25Now, Netflix is part of the communications
-
00:01:28services sector, and it led the markets higher on Friday.
-
00:01:32And of course, this sector includes Meta
-
00:01:34and Google, as well as a lot of other communications companies.
-
00:01:39Now, Netflix is in the Nasdaq.
-
00:01:41It certainly led the Nasdaq higher.
-
00:01:43Netflix is also in the S&P 500.
-
00:01:46And up at the top of the winners list on
-
00:01:48the S&P 500 were a lot of consumer financial iwinner'snstitutions.
-
00:01:52So SVB was the big winner.
-
00:01:55It was up over six and a half percent,
-
00:01:57filled that open gap, and then started to pull back.
-
00:02:00300 can still act as resistance.
-
00:02:02We traded through it for a few minutes, and our next mathematical target is 312.
-
00:02:0850.
-
00:02:08We certainly traded above that level back in October.
-
00:02:13In a lot of cases, investors just want to
-
00:02:15get rid of their money when they see it up to an open gap
-
00:02:18a lot of people just give up.
-
00:02:20And so this is an inflection point.
-
00:02:22This is a time and place where we find out if this nice up move off the 218.
-
00:02:2775 level has attracted new money, or is
-
00:02:31this just old money trying to get out up at these levels?
-
00:02:34We'll just have to wait and see a couple
-
00:02:36of more financial institutions that did really well on Friday.
-
00:02:42SYF had a nice day on Friday.
-
00:02:43Noticed Thursday, though, was a rather shaky day.
-
00:02:46Traded right down to the previous low
-
00:02:48before reversing and then closing right in the channel.
-
00:02:51So we did not get a sell signal on Thursday.
-
00:02:53Friday, nice big update.
-
00:02:55Similar situation for a signature bank
-
00:02:57trading all the way down to the lower channel line on Thursday.
-
00:03:00And then nice big move up on Friday.
-
00:03:02And then Capital One Financial again
-
00:03:05traded through the lower channel line on Thursday, didn't close below it.
-
00:03:09And on Friday we had the nice big move up back up to the high from Wednesday.
-
00:03:14Now looking north of the border, it wasn't financial institutions or streaming
-
00:03:18services that led the market higher, it was Shopifybut .
-
00:03:22So that would be Ecommerce and then it was uranium with Cameco.
-
00:03:26Now Cameco broke out above the recent high
-
00:03:29and tagged our next price target up there at 35.
-
00:03:3194. Congratulations.
-
00:03:34If you had an ordering up at that level now with part of your remaining position,
-
00:03:39you want to put an order in up just under 37.
-
00:03:4250.
-
00:03:42That's our next price target to the upside.
-
00:03:45Let's take a break from daily and weekly charts and look at the monthly chart.
-
00:03:50We've just finished the third week of January and the TSX is having a nice start
-
00:03:54to the year, but has not broken out and made new highs for this move.
-
00:03:58We're looking right now with the gains of
-
00:04:015.77%. Then you can see it's a nice inside month for the Dow, just 69%.
-
00:04:08Then we've got the S&P 500 also having an
-
00:04:11inside month up 3.47%. And then looking at the Nasdaq, the Biggest Loser is now the
-
00:04:17biggest winner, but it's kind of ha100-weekaveragesrd to notice.
-
00:04:19So we are up 6.21% at the moment.
-
00:04:23So let's talk about the big pothole that
-
00:04:25everyone's watching there's, the big downtrend line on the weekly chart here.
-
00:04:29We're trading up to that line right now.
-
00:04:32The bulls are saying, hey, no, we just made a recent higher low.
-
00:04:37That has got to be bullish.
-
00:04:39Well, everybody's waiting to see if we can make higher highs.
-
00:04:42And of course we're also stuck at the moving averages.
-
00:04:45So on the weekly chart, the 50 and the 100 week moving average have converged and
-
00:04:50that's where we're finding resistance right now.
-
00:04:52On the daily charts, we ran up to the 200
-
00:04:55day moving average during the week and then pulled back.
-
00:04:58So the market is waiting to see if we take
-
00:05:00another run at that moving average or if we have failed.
-
00:05:03And that's it for the time being.
-
00:05:05We certainly had a nice recovery day on
-
00:05:08Friday, but as you can see, we did not break out and make any new ground.
-
00:05:12Now, mathematically speaking, our next target is 40 62 50.
-
00:05:18So 4000 is a big round number and we have been able to trade above that.
-
00:05:24And so that may not be such an important number right now.
-
00:05:28We're also looking at the high, the recent high, which is up there at 4089 50.
-
00:05:33So those are two numbers that we're going
-
00:05:35to be keeping an eye on this week to see if the market gets back up over 4000.
-
00:05:39And then what does it do once it gets back over 4000?
-
00:05:44Next up, let's take a look at the VIX.
-
00:05:46And the VIX has been supported for higher stock prices for a while now.
-
00:05:50That would change this coming Friday if we were to close above 24 48.
-
00:05:54And you can see that the VIX also had an inside week looking at a daily chart.
-
00:05:59And last weekend we talked about the fact
-
00:06:01that we had traded below 1875, but had not broken away from that level just yet.
-
00:06:06So we traded back into the channel this
-
00:06:08week and now you can see the range has shrunk.
-
00:06:11We were originally looking at $25 on the high end down to 1875.
-
00:06:15Now we've got 21 88 acting as resistance.
-
00:06:19So it's 1875 to 21 88.
-
00:06:22And of course, if we break out above 21 88, that would certainly give us a daily
-
00:06:26buy signal if we closed above the 21 35 level on Monday.
-
00:06:31And of course, if that doesn't happen on
-
00:06:33Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
-
00:06:38Next up, we're looking at commodity prices
-
00:06:40and we got crude oil back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close, joining
-
00:06:44gasoline, which is on its fourth week of a weekly buy signal.
-
00:06:49And then natural gas continued to move lower down another nearly 7% on the week.
-
00:06:54Looking at the metals, the GLD made a new
-
00:06:57high for this move, moving up towards the 181.
-
00:07:0125 level.
-
00:07:03There's an open gap over here that we've basically closed.
-
00:07:07Now we're looking to see if we can get up to 181.
-
00:07:0925.
-
00:07:10We've got palladium holding 156. 25.
-
00:07:14We've got platinum stuck at 100, coming back down to 93.75 during the week.
-
00:07:19So we're looking to see if 93.
-
00:07:2175 can hold.
-
00:07:22If we take out 100, then 106.25 comes into play.
-
00:07:26Then looking at silver, silver is stuck in
-
00:07:29an open gap, which of course now has been filled.
-
00:07:32But there's a lot of resentment at that price level.
-
00:07:35A lot of people feel screwed.
-
00:07:37And so now we're up in that price level.
-
00:07:40And unlike gold, which has continued to move higher, we've got silver stock.
-
00:07:45If silver can take out the high from a couple of weeks ago, then 23.
-
00:07:4944 does come into play.
-
00:07:52We're almost done.
-
00:07:54The last thing I wanted to focus on was the ARK Innovations ETFs and its holdings.
-
00:08:00Now, if you take a car, say a $40,000 car and you have an accident and your
-
00:08:04insurance company writes it off, if you take it to the wreckers and they give you
-
00:08:09$500 for it and then the wreckers turn around and sell it.
-
00:08:12For more than that, it is still a car that
-
00:08:16has been written off, even though the value does increase in price.
-
00:08:20And so here we're seeing a whole bunch of
-
00:08:23very positive articles about the ARK Innovations and about Cathie Wood and
-
00:08:29about how well she's doing in 2023, well, that really doesn't matter.
-
00:08:34It's very hard to see on the chart how well she's doing.
-
00:08:37She does have some winners.
-
00:08:39And we've seen exact science move up nicely over the past couple of weeks.
-
00:08:45We've seen the tenx genomics move up over the past couple of weeks.
-
00:08:50We've even got Coinbase back on our weekly buy signal.
-
00:08:53At the end of the day, it's still a car
-
00:08:55wreck, and Tesla is one of her biggest holdings.
-
00:08:58And woo it's up two weeks in a row, that is not a significant trend.
-
00:09:03We'll just have to wait and see if anything develops over time.
-
00:09:06But, yeah, she's getting a lot of positive
-
00:09:08media right now, but remember, she drove the train off the tracks.
-
00:09:12And, yeah, mathematically speaking, she is doing really well in 2023.
-
00:09:18As long as you didn't know her in 2022.
-
00:09:21Okay, folks, that is all for this evening's presentation.
-
00:09:24Stock index futures are slightly below fair value, and so that tells us there
-
00:09:29hasn't been any scary news that's come out over the weekend.
-
00:09:33Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
-
00:09:34The next time you'll hear one of our voices will be Tuesday morning.
-
00:10:07Thank you.