Stock Market Outlook 10132023

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You.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Friday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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TheUpTrend.com. Well, it is Friday the 13th and there is a
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statistical anomaly that tells us that Friday the 13th are typically bearish.
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We'll just have to wait and see how that works out. In the pre market this morning
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stock index futures are trading below fair
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value, so we are looking for a little selling at the open on Friday morning.
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Today is an interesting day for us.
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It's a memorable day.
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Our neighbor and good friend is turning
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102 today, so we're having a party for him this morning.
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Having a party for him this morning
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because he usually comes over at 10:30 for eleven z's.
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And so when he shows up for his regular
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visit, we're going to have a bunch of people here.
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Not a big surprise party.
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You don't want to surprise somebody too much who's turning 102.
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But this man is incredibly active and still working.
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He's got six books that he's working on at
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the moment, so it's going to be an exciting day for us.
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And I've never been to birthday party for
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102 year old before who is in very good shape.
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Now, yesterday there was a little disturbance in the force.
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We had bond yields shoot back up, we had the US dollar shoot back up.
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Both of those are negative for stocks.
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The VIX did not get back into the channel at the close.
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It had a wild day and an outside reversal day.
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But while it closed higher on the day, it
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didn't close in the channel and certainly nowhere near the upper channel line.
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So on Friday if the VIX were to close
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above $18.88, that would be very bearish for the overall stock market.
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Now, with the kefuffle in bond yields
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yesterday, we did see a lot of bearish reversal days notice when we're looking at
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the SP 500, the pros have not taken control so far.
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So I was assuming we were going to get a rally into the middle of the month and
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unless the pros come in and take control, that rally would fizzle.
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Whether we come back down and retest or take out.
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The recent lows, of course, is yet to be determined.
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A market can move up and then just tread
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water to work off some of the overbought condition.
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But we've gone from extremely oversold to
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extremely overbought on a short term basis.
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Or our next target on the S&P 500 was 437.50.
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We got as high as 437 34 yesterday, so
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right up to our next price target, not enough to fill that open gap.
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So some traders may be still interested in trying to fill the Open gap.
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Now the spy was able to close above the upper channel line once again, so did not
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close below the previous day's low, so no major damage was done on Thursday.
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On Friday we're looking for a close below 426.70 to give us a new daily sell signal.
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Not expecting that to happen from what
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we're seeing in the pre market this morning.
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Now, looking at the triple Q's, our next price target was 375.
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That, of course, is still in play.
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Again, we had an outside reversal day
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yesterday, but did not close below the previous day's low.
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So on Friday we're looking for a close
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below $358.89. And again, not expecting that to happen on Friday.
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And of course, if it doesn't happen, that
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lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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Now, what's not working right now?
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Well, the Ishares for the Russell 2000 are back on a sell signal.
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The Ishares for the micro cap sector have not generated a buy signal just yet.
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So once again, when we move away from those big cap tech stocks, the rest of the
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market is not doing very well at the moment.
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Now, looking at the Ishares for the TSX
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60, our next mathematical target was $30.08. Of course, you've got to take big
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round numbers into account and big round number right now would be $30.
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Is that acting as resistance?
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Well, the high of the day yesterday was 29
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.99. So, yes, $30 is acting as resistance at the moment.
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Now, yesterday was a bearish reversal day
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for the Canadian stock market, using the TSX 60 as our guide.
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Notice the pros are not interested in taking control right now.
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So I think this rally that we're seeing
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right now is probably going to end fairly soon.
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On Friday, we would need a close below $29.30 to give us a sell signal.
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Not expecting to see that happen on Friday.
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Now, crude oil was down yesterday.
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It's up in the pre market this morning.
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Now, even though crude oil closed lower yesterday, it was the energy stocks on
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both sides of the border that actually led the market higher on Thursday.
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Gold was also down slightly yesterday.
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It's up in the pre market this morning, so
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gold stocks should probably be up on Friday as well.
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What didn't work yesterday?
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Well, the biggest losers were home builders, which are back on a sell signal.
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Now, that might reverse today depending on what bond yields do, but certainly the big
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move in bond yields put downward pressure on home builders on Thursday.
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And then biotechs were the next big losers from Thursday's trading action.
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Now, the biggest loser on the S&P 500 from Thursday's trading action was hormel down
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nearly 10% on the day, so certainly no change in trend there.
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And then on the TSX it was K92.
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Mining was down over 12%, and again, no change in trend there.
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Now, we're watching Tesla closely.
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Remember, Tesla has worked its way into this triangle, and so far we have not been
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able to break out above the top of the triangle just yet.
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So that's a nice downtrend line that's
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holding us in check in the pre market this morning.
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We are trading down another couple of dollars.
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So that would be if we were to close
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there, that would be seeing this stock down the last three days in a row.
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We're looking for a close on Friday below
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251.65 to give us a new sell signal for Tesla.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Stock index futures are lower while commodities are higher this morning.
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So we're looking for a mixed open on Friday morning.
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The TSX may see a little more love than the US.
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Market on Friday.
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Have a great day, have a great weekend.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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