Canadian Stock Market Timing - 04252023

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Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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My name, of course, is Stephen Whiteside

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from theuptrend.com with today's look at Canadian Stock Market Trends.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading lower,

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so we are looking for some selling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Let's start off with a quick look at the US market.

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The VIX traded up into the channel

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yesterday before coming down, closing near the low of the day.

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We're looking for a close on Tuesday above

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$18.41 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX.

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And of course, if fear starts to rise, we expect stocks to fall.

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We saw the DAO trade into the channel yesterday.

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We saw the S&P 500 trade into the channel.

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The Nasdaq closing in the channel, dipping

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below the lower channel line for the second trading day in a row.

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So for the Nasdaq 100 ETF, we're looking

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for a close below 314.88 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal.

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And that would sync up with the

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semiconductors already on a sell signal, making a new low for this move on Monday.

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Now, we're continuing to follow Tesla closely and it broke down below 160

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yesterday but recovered going into the close, still trading lower on the day.

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So 160 is no longer a potential area of support.

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Our next mathematical target is 150, but

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we also talked about looking back to the left, seeing that nice big open gap in

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which the top and the bottom may act as price magnets going forward.

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Now, the best performing stock on the S&P

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500 yesterday was a regional bank, which I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole.

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It closed up at over 12 % yesterday.

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It is down over 20 % in the premarket this morning.

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So what the market giveth, they taketh away.

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Now, moving on to the main topic this

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morning, and that, of course, is the Canadian stock market.

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I always get comments about why I don't

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talk about what's going on in the premarket in the Canadian stock market.

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Well, it's not actively traded.

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And if you listen to the local news station, the 24 hours News station, when

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they do their business report, they absolutely never mention what's going on

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in the pre market in the Canadian stock market.

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Now, there are a couple of ways to get an indication.

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Of course, an indication does not guarantee exactly what's going to happen.

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But if we look at the TSX 60, there are

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futures contracts for the TSX and the TSX 60.

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The TSX 60 is much more actively traded.

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This number is a little old since I took

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this picture, but this morning at 6:33 AM, the TSX 60 futures contract was trading

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down $4.40. Now, yesterday it was down $1.95.

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Down 4.40 gives us an indication that we're going to open lower.

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Another way to get a reliable number is to

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go to New York and look at the iShares Canada ETF.

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Yesterday, this particular ETF closed up a penny.

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This morning it is down $0.21. So that's

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giving us an indication that something is going on.

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You can see that we need to close below $35.02. Right now, we are trading at

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$35.02. When I took this snapshot, of course, this is an old number.

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It's an old number for me.

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It's going to be an older number for you by the time you see this video.

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So we are trading lower this morning, both in the futures contract and in the ETF.

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So that gives us a good indication that

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we're going to expect to see some selling at the open this morning.

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Now, moving from the TSX 60 to the TSX

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itself, which is a broader index with over 200 stocks compared to the 60.

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You can see it was a very small bar yesterday.

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So we did make a new high for this move

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before pulling back and closing slightly lower on the day.

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We are up at our price target up here.

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We're just treading along.

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Of course, we've got the highs from back

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in January and February that could be potential targets to the upside.

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And you can see that that is basically a wall of resistance.

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So we're having trouble moving higher up here.

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That doesn't guarantee that we're going to pull back.

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It's just right now we are stuck trying to break through resistance.

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That's also true for the TSX 60.

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You can see that the midcap stocks have started to pull back from that resistance.

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And then the small caps and microcaps

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have already left the building and have been selling off.

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So the riskier end of the market is

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tightening up and we are in a downtrend for both small caps and microcap stocks.

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Now looking at the cannabis sector, we actually made a new low for this move.

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I know that's not news, but it's

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interesting that when you look at the health care index, you've got a nice big

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pop a couple of days ago and that's still holding up.

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And that's from one stock and that's Bellus Health, which I guess is being

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taken over and nobody was suspecting that was going to happen.

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So congratulations for those parties keeping everything very secret.

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Now, moving on to the Canadian financials.

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They've had a nice recovery over the last month.

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Of course, they were pulled down by the US regional bank crisis.

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We've moved up. We're trying to get to 367.19, but there's

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an open gap that's holding us in check at the moment.

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We are seeing a little weakness in Canadian banks.

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They're starting to trade back into the channel.

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We do have a couple back on sell signals as of Monday's close.

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So the Bank of Nova Scotia and CIBC are both back on sell signals.

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And of course, if you wanted to short

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these stocks, this is the time and place to do so.

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Of course, the world is focused on shorting TD Bank, which is still on a buy

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signal, still trading above the upper channel line.

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National Bank made a new high yesterday.

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Royal Bank made a new high on Monday.

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So they're not all going in the same direction.

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Now, it's been the insurance companies

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really holding the financials up in made a new high yesterday.

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New high for manual life on Monday.

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And then looking at Sun Life, Sun Life has

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been stuck at resistance here for the last three days.

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Our price target is 65.63. We got as high as 65.58 yesterday.

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When we talk about price targets, either

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to the upside or to the downside, we're also talking about buyers and sellers.

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We're expecting to see some selling up here at the 65.63 level.

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That has certainly turned out to be the case over the last three years.

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Of course, if sellers outweigh buyers, then of course you get a lower close.

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If they don't, we closed higher yesterday.

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If we can break through 65.

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63, then 67.

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19 would be our next target to the upside.

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Now, gold has been on a sell signal for just a couple of days now.

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We have not been able to hold at 2,000.

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We closed at 1999.80 yesterday.

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We're trading below 2,000 this morning.

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I assumed that traders would try to hold

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the magical $2,000 level, but so far they have not been able to do so.

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Looking at the Panic Zone chart for the price of gold, you want to be

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a buyer off the bottom of the Panic Zones when a pressure zone forms.

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And of course, up here it gets a lot

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harder to make money even if we get a new buy signal.

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It's a lot harder to make money, a lot

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more risk up here than there was down here.

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Down here, we're getting rid of a lot of

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the sellers, a lot of people that want to be out of the gold market.

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They have left the building and now buyers outweigh sellers and we start to move up.

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Here it gets a bit more questionable.

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You get a lot more people wanting to take

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profits and that can start a new downtrend for any symbol that you're following.

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Now, gold stocks, they have been trending water up here.

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We've been on a sell signal for four days now.

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Kinross was the best performing gold stock on the TSX yesterday up a little over 1 %.

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Still on a sell signal here from Friday.

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We are looking for a close on Tuesday

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above 6.93. And then Barrick is still on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday

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with a close below $25.76. Next up, we're looking at energy stocks

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which have been on a sell signal for a couple of days now.

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They traded higher yesterday.

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A close above 241.61 would give us a new buy signal.

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We still have Canadian Natural Resources

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on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday with a close below $80.17,

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which would join Suncor already on its sell signal for a week now.

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We're not expecting Suncor to change direction on Tuesday.

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Looking at industrials making a new high yesterday that had a lot to do with the

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railroads, Canadian National, Canadian Pacific all doing very well at the moment.

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Compare that to Ballard Power and New

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Flyer, which are the big losers in the industrial section at the moment.

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Then let's finish off with telecom stocks.

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They've been treading water up here for a couple of weeks now.

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We did see Bell and Telus both make new highs on Monday.

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At the same time, we've got Rogers back on a sell signal.

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Rogers has been extremely volatile over the last month.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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We're still looking for a lower open on Tuesday morning.

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Obviously, nobody's panicking on Tuesday morning.

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It's just unwinding of things that happen

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on Monday, so no major downward pressure on Tuesday morning in the premarket.

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Have a great day on Tuesday.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. In order