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00:00:00Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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00:00:04theuptrend.com. In the Premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet so far.
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00:00:08We've got a while to go before the market opens.
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00:00:11We have been talking about the risk off trade recently.
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00:00:14And if you've ever wanted to see evidence
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00:00:17of a risk off trade, well, when Campbell Soup is one of the biggest winners on the
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00:00:21S&P 500, you know you're in a risk off situation.
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00:00:25Now, we've been talking about potential weakness in the financial sector.
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00:00:30We've looked at Credit Swiss, Bank of
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00:00:32America and yesterday we saw M&T bank plunge yesterday.
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00:00:36It is still $150 stock.
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00:00:38It is not going out of business
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00:00:40but certainly some of these stock financial stocks are seeing some downward
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00:00:45pressure because of interest rate fluctuations at the present time.
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00:00:49Now, Carvana, here's a stock that's down, I think, 96% off the top.
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00:00:54And of course, a stock that's down 96% can still fall 42.92% in one day.
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00:01:01Anytime you see a chart like this, you need to walk away and find something else.
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00:01:06Of course, if there's a whole sector that
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00:01:07looks like this, that could be a different situation.
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00:01:10But if it's just one stock, you know, the
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00:01:12market hates it and it's likely not to ever come back to where it was previously.
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00:01:18And that is certainly the case for Carvana, which is probably going to zero
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00:01:23at some point in the not so distant future.
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00:01:26Now, if you've been looking if you live in the US.
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00:01:28And you've been looking to trade in a car on a new car, you probably want to do that
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00:01:33now as opposed to later, because once Carvana has to liquidate their inventory,
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00:01:39there's going to be a huge flood of used vehicles on the market, and that's going
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00:01:44to put downward pressure on the value of used vehicles.
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00:01:48Now, yesterday was a fairly quiet day for most of the market.
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00:01:51It was an inside day for the Dow, inside
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00:01:53day for the S&P 500, a little weaker for the Nasdaq.
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00:01:57And the Ishares for the TSX 60 actually had a new low for this move.
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00:02:02It was a penny lower than the previous day.
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00:02:05So not technically an inside day, but pretty close.
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00:02:09Now, options traders are getting a little nervy.
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00:02:12They're getting a little worried about the future.
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00:02:14And we saw a new buy signal for the VIX.
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00:02:16That tells us that option traders are starting to feel the pressure, and that's
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00:02:22probably not a good sign for the market going forward.
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00:02:24No guarantee of that, of course, but to see the VIX start to change direction is
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00:02:30usually a sign that the stock market is going to start moving lower.
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00:02:34Now, the US dollar index pulled back a bit yesterday.
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00:02:37No change in trend there bonds continuing to move higher.
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00:02:41Huge day for the bond market on Wednesday.
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00:02:44A risk off trade that people are taking
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00:02:46money out of the stock market and putting it into the bond market, certainly putting
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00:02:49downward pressure on yields and interest rates.
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00:02:52It's not what the Fed wants to see at the moment.
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00:02:55So we may see a battle between the Fed and
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00:02:58the bond market coming up when the Fed meets in a week or so.
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00:03:03Then looking at copper prices, copper
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00:03:05prices were up yesterday, still on a buy signal.
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00:03:08No change in trend for gold.
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00:03:10Gold was up yesterday.
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00:03:11Silver was up yesterday.
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00:03:13So that of course helped the mining sector.
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00:03:16And we saw the GDX move up nearly 2% and the XGD was also nearly 2% on the day.
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00:03:24Looking at crude oil, we have a new low
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00:03:26for crude oil and we're seeing the lowest gasoline prices of 2022 right now.
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00:03:32And we had natural gas move up yesterday. Looks like it's.
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00:03:36Finding support at our weekly daily price
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00:03:38target of 5.47 now, just like the rest of the market.
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00:03:42Both Canadian and US energy stocks had a
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00:03:45fairly quiet day, both making new lows but both closing almost unchanged on the day.
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00:03:52A couple of stocks we've been watching, Apple, apple held $140 yesterday.
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00:03:56That could be a bullish sign going forward
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00:03:58if Apple can continue to find support at $140.
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00:04:02Unfortunately, Tesla was down 3% and change yesterday, down another 2% last
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00:04:07time I looked in the pre market on Thursday morning.
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00:04:10And last up Dollarama.
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00:04:12Dollarama, the best performing stock on the TSX 60 on Wednesday.
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00:04:16It ended Tuesday on a sell signal.
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00:04:18And so you come in Wednesday morning and
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00:04:20you find out it's going to open up there up at the 81.50 level.
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00:04:25And you have a choice.
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00:04:26You can either take the cell signal that would lock in some additional money up
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00:04:30there, or you could stand aside and wait to see what happens next.
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00:04:34Often standing aside is a good thing, but
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00:04:37also locking in money at that level is also a good thing.
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00:04:41So it is really a judgment call what you do at that point.
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00:04:44But I always tell people no matter what
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00:04:46the signal is, you always want to look to see how the market's opening the next day
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00:04:51and just not automatically throw your order in.
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00:04:54And you may decide to not take the buy
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00:04:57signal or the sell signal at that particular time and wait for another close
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00:05:02above or below the channel line, depending on which way the market is going.
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00:05:07Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:05:10Stock index futures are fairly quiet but slightly positive this morning.
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00:05:14Have a great day on Thursday.
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00:05:15Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.