Morning Market Outlook 12152023

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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In the premarket this morning, stock index
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futures and commodities are above fair value.
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So far, it looks like everybody's happy.
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Now, December options expire this
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afternoon, and supposedly there's a record number of options about to expire, and
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that could certainly add to some afternoon volatility, but I'm not sure it's going to
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dramatically change the direction of the market.
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Looking at the VIX, we're looking for a close on Friday above 13.14. Of course, if
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the VIX starts trending higher at some point, you have the opportunity to buy the
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VIX using ETFs, whether it's the VXX in New York or the HUV in Toronto.
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Both of them will move higher with the VIX
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over time, and you can make money when volatility does start to move higher.
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Now, it certainly looks like the torch has finally been passed.
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We saw the Nasdaq-100 actually closed slightly lower yesterday.
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Some of those big cap tech stocks we've
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been following, such as Microsoft were down on the day over two %.
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At the same time, the Equal Weighted Nasdaq continued to move higher.
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Those Next Generation, the next 100 stocks were up on the day.
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We saw the Russell 2000 up nearly three %.
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We saw microcap stocks up nearly two %.
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And that was on both sides of the border.
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Mid-cap stocks in Toronto, small-cap stocks in Toronto, and those micro-cap
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stocks in Vancouver were all up on the day.
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Now looking at the TSX, the iShares for the TSX 60 made a new high for this move.
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You can see, like many charts right now, we're up at the top of the Panic Zones.
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That's not the time to be a buyer.
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That's the time to look for selling opportunities.
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At some point, we're going to pull back
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and we're going to see if we can hold the uptrend.
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If we don't hold the uptrend, then of
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course, our downward projections would come into play.
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But right now, we're still looking higher.
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There's no reason to look down at the present time.
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Now looking at the bond market, the TLT,
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the XBB, all continue to move higher on Thursday.
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That, of course, puts downward pressure on bond yields.
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The market is way ahead of the Fed, reducing interest rates next year.
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They're doing it now.
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It's what the market is doing ahead of the
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Fed, so they don't need the Fed to do this.
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You can see that rates are falling, yields
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are falling, and that's supported for higher stock prices.
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That put downward pressure on the US
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dollar index, which continued to move sharply lower on Thursday.
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We saw currencies such as the Euro and the Canadian dollar move sharply higher.
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Now it looked like everything was moving up on Thursday, including crude oil.
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We're looking for a close on Friday above
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73.26 to give us a buy signal for crude oil.
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And it looks like crude oil might actually
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end the week higher, which hasn't happened in quite a while.
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We're holding 68.75 on the daily chart.
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That, of course, is also a weekly area of support.
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And so far, that's a holding.
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We also saw some buying in natural gas on
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Thursday, and that, of course, can help energy stocks.
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We saw energy stocks in Canada up 1.69% back into the channel.
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Big up move for US energy stocks up nearly 3% on the day.
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Then looking at gold, gold continued to
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move higher on Thursday, and so did silver.
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Gold and silver stocks also continue to move higher.
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But in both cases, whether you're looking
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at the GDX or the XGD, they moved up to previous resistance and pulled back.
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I'm not sure we're going to be able to get
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through that level of resistance at the present time.
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We'll have to just wait and see.
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Then the copper miners actually had a huge
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day yesterday, gapping higher, up 3.37%. You don't see that very often.
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Okay, folks, that's all I really wanted to cover this morning.
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A lot of stocks are hitting new highs.
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Of course, what we want to do right now is make sure we're selling into strength.
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If you've been systematically taking money
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off the table as we've been moving higher, congratulations.
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If you haven't done that, then you should consider doing that.
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This is not the time to be a buyer.
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It's a time to rejoice and be happy.
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We were expecting a Christmas rally.
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We got a Christmas rally.
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The important thing is to take advantage of it and lock in some profits.
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You never want to completely liquidate a position.
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If you've got a position in SPY and you haven't taken money off the table, sell a
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partial position, just lock in some profits.
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You do not ever have to completely
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liquidate a position until we finally get kicked out.
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And when do we get kicked out?
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Well, the first close below the lower
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channel line and we're not expecting that to happen on Friday.
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The first sign of trouble, of course, is
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going to be when we get a daily close below Wednesday's low.
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Wednesday was the big breakout day.
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It was the Fed Day.
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And the first daily close below that level
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will certainly be the first sign that something new is happening.
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And then, of course, we're also going to
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be watching the VIX to see when the VIX generates a daily buy signal.
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Okay, thank you very much for your time and attention.
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It's been a great week.
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Have a great Friday.
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Have a great weekend.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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