Stock Market Timing Television - 07172023

en-us French Canadian Arabic Chinese German Hindi Japanese Korean Spanish

How was the video ?

Description

Auto Scroll

00:00:01

Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning.
00:00:02

It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
00:00:05

com.
00:00:06

In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value
00:00:09

while commodities are slightly higher on Tuesday morning.
00:00:14

Let's start off this morning's
00:00:15

presentation taking a look at the fear index or the VIX.
00:00:18

It's still on a sell signal traded up yesterday looking for a close of about
00:00:22

14.74. A close of about 1474 can certainly disturb the market, but to really get the
00:00:28

big cap tech stocks to roll over, we need the VIX above 18.
00:00:33

Looking at the US dollar index, of course, we made a new low on Friday.
00:00:37

We closed slightly lower yesterday, didn't take out that low.
00:00:40

Fairly calm, quiet day in the bond market.
00:00:43

Bond yields pretty stable. Y yesterday.
00:00:46

Looking at gold, gold was down $8 yesterday.
00:00:49

It's up $10 in the pre market this morning.
00:00:51

Silver is having trouble breaking away
00:00:54

from $25, which of course, was our next price target.
00:00:57

So we seem to be stuck there right now.
00:00:59

And with the metals, copper pulled back, closed in the channel on Monday.
00:01:03

Of course, that's not helpful for the mining sector.
00:01:07

We saw crude oil pulled back yesterday.
00:01:09

It is higher in the pre market this
00:01:10

morning, trading up to the 200 day moving average and stopping.
00:01:14

So looking for a breakout above the 200 day moving average.
00:01:18

We do have a new early warning signal there for crude oil, so getting suspicious
00:01:23

about our chances of moving higher from here.
00:01:26

Natural gas closed slightly lower yesterday, no change there.
00:01:30

We really need to see a breakout above the
00:01:33

fly paper channel for anything new to happen in natural gas.
00:01:37

Then looking at the TSX, it made a new high on Friday, but it was a bearish
00:01:42

reversal day and we saw fall through to the downside yesterday.
00:01:45

This is bullish, the fact that we made a higher low and a higher high last week.
00:01:50

That is bullish.
00:01:52

A breakdown of the lower trend line or the uptrend line there would certainly be an
00:01:57

indication that something bad is is going to happen for the Canadian stock market.
00:02:02

Now, the DOW made a new high yesterday.
00:02:05

S&p 500 made a new high.
00:02:06

Nasdaq made a new closing high.
00:02:08

We had a big reversal in semiconductors,
00:02:11

which sold off on Friday, came right back on Monday.
00:02:15

Well, times have certainly changed, and certainly over the past 20 years, we've
00:02:20

seen a lot of new stocks take leadership positions in the market.
00:02:25

The Communication Services Index is a relatively new S&P index.
00:02:29

It made a new high on
00:02:32

Thursday, pulled back on Friday, and a continued pull back on Monday.
00:02:36

Not a big move down on Monday.
00:02:38

We're still on a buy signal here.
00:02:40

A couple of stocks which used to be market
00:02:42

leaders, and if they did this 20 years ago, would have certainly shaken the
00:02:47

market to see AT&T sell off like this, Verizon sell off, and even in the Canadian
00:02:53

market, huge sell off for Bell and a couple of bad days for Telus as well.
00:02:59

The market doesn't seem to be overly
00:03:01

concerned at the moment, and times have changed.
00:03:04

The focus has changed, and these stocks
00:03:06

aren't as important to the market as they used to be.
00:03:09

They are certainly big stocks, but
00:03:12

they certainly aren't scaring the market at the moment.
00:03:15

There are other stocks in this sector and we saw Meta trade higher yesterday.
00:03:21

We also saw Netflix trade higher and even Fox.
00:03:25

Fox making a new high for this move.
00:03:27

Even with all Fox's legal problems, I
00:03:30

guess it's not really their problems, it's their insurance company's problems.
00:03:34

But yeah, those stocks making new highs while the big telephone companies, those
00:03:39

legacy telephone companies, sold off sharply on Monday.
00:03:43

Looking at some of the most actively
00:03:45

traded US stocks, we saw Tesla make a new high yesterday.
00:03:49

We had AMD up, not enough to take out
00:03:52

Friday's high, but certainly closed higher on the day.
00:03:55

We traded down to the lower channel line,
00:03:57

so a close below 112.17 give us a sell signal on Tuesday.
00:04:01

Inside day for NVIDIA.
00:04:04

Then Marathon Digital, new early warning
00:04:07

signal up there trading down to the upper channel line.
00:04:10

Looking for a close on Tuesday below 15.
00:04:13

59, that would give us a new sell signal.
00:04:16

Similar situation for Rivian, new early
00:04:18

warning signal there trading down to the upper channel line.
00:04:21

Looking for a close on Tuesday below 2180 to give us a sell signal.
00:04:26

Taking a look at some of the Canadian most actively traded stocks, we've got
00:04:30

Enbridge back on a sell signal as of Monday's close.
00:04:33

So pretty ugly looking chart there.
00:04:36

Similar looking chart for TC Energy series
00:04:39

of lower highs, and now we're making another lower low.
00:04:42

Then looking at TD Bank, a new high for TD Bank.
00:04:46

Last week, if you were looking up, 84.38 was our next price target.
00:04:51

We got as high as 84.35 yesterday, so we
00:04:54

didn't hit our price target off by three cents.
00:04:57

Remember, anytime you're looking at a
00:04:59

price target, you're looking at a place where people are going to sell, and some
00:05:03

people will put their orders in under those levels.
00:05:06

And it looks like that's what happened yesterday.
00:05:09

But we probably hit 84.38 on Tuesday.
00:05:14

Then looking at Suncor, we're second day of a sell signal for Suncor.
00:05:18

Then we've got Canadian Natural Resources
00:05:20

back on a sell signal as of Monday's close.
00:05:23

And then Shopify closed slightly higher on the day.
00:05:27

A bearish reversal day on Friday.
00:05:29

Yesterday was a positive day for the
00:05:31

stock, so not a significant bearish reversal day on Friday.
00:05:37

We're looking to see if we can take it out.
00:05:39

Now, if you had an order in at 93.75 on Friday, it got filled.
00:05:43

We had a high of 93.83 on Friday for Shopify.
00:05:48

Anytime there's a bearish reversal signal,
00:05:51

we're looking for fall through to the downside on the next day.
00:05:54

That signal is still in place until we
00:05:57

close above Friday's high of 93.83. So if we close above 93.
00:06:03

83 on Tuesday, then that bearish reversal signal can get thrown in the garbage.
00:06:07

Otherwise, as long as we don't close above 93.83,
00:06:11

then that bearish reversal signal is still
00:06:14

in play and could mark the top for this particular move for Shopify.
00:06:20

Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning.
00:06:22

Looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open at 9 30 Tuesday morning.
00:06:27

Have a great day and the next time you'll
00:06:29

hear my voice, it's going to be on Wednesday morning.

Transcription