Stock Market Timing Television - 07172023
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    • 00:00:01
      Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning.
    • 00:00:02
      It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
    • 00:00:05
      com.
    • 00:00:06
      In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value
    • 00:00:09
      while commodities are slightly higher on Tuesday morning.
    • 00:00:14
      Let's start off this morning's
    • 00:00:15
      presentation taking a look at the fear index or the VIX.
    • 00:00:18
      It's still on a sell signal traded up yesterday looking for a close of about
    • 00:00:22
      14.74. A close of about 1474 can certainly disturb the market, but to really get the
    • 00:00:28
      big cap tech stocks to roll over, we need the VIX above 18.
    • 00:00:33
      Looking at the US dollar index, of course, we made a new low on Friday.
    • 00:00:37
      We closed slightly lower yesterday, didn't take out that low.
    • 00:00:40
      Fairly calm, quiet day in the bond market.
    • 00:00:43
      Bond yields pretty stable. Y yesterday.
    • 00:00:46
      Looking at gold, gold was down $8 yesterday.
    • 00:00:49
      It's up $10 in the pre market this morning.
    • 00:00:51
      Silver is having trouble breaking away
    • 00:00:54
      from $25, which of course, was our next price target.
    • 00:00:57
      So we seem to be stuck there right now.
    • 00:00:59
      And with the metals, copper pulled back, closed in the channel on Monday.
    • 00:01:03
      Of course, that's not helpful for the mining sector.
    • 00:01:07
      We saw crude oil pulled back yesterday.
    • 00:01:09
      It is higher in the pre market this
    • 00:01:10
      morning, trading up to the 200 day moving average and stopping.
    • 00:01:14
      So looking for a breakout above the 200 day moving average.
    • 00:01:18
      We do have a new early warning signal there for crude oil, so getting suspicious
    • 00:01:23
      about our chances of moving higher from here.
    • 00:01:26
      Natural gas closed slightly lower yesterday, no change there.
    • 00:01:30
      We really need to see a breakout above the
    • 00:01:33
      fly paper channel for anything new to happen in natural gas.
    • 00:01:37
      Then looking at the TSX, it made a new high on Friday, but it was a bearish
    • 00:01:42
      reversal day and we saw fall through to the downside yesterday.
    • 00:01:45
      This is bullish, the fact that we made a higher low and a higher high last week.
    • 00:01:50
      That is bullish.
    • 00:01:52
      A breakdown of the lower trend line or the uptrend line there would certainly be an
    • 00:01:57
      indication that something bad is is going to happen for the Canadian stock market.
    • 00:02:02
      Now, the DOW made a new high yesterday.
    • 00:02:05
      S&p 500 made a new high.
    • 00:02:06
      Nasdaq made a new closing high.
    • 00:02:08
      We had a big reversal in semiconductors,
    • 00:02:11
      which sold off on Friday, came right back on Monday.
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      Well, times have certainly changed, and certainly over the past 20 years, we've
    • 00:02:20
      seen a lot of new stocks take leadership positions in the market.
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      The Communication Services Index is a relatively new S&P index.
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      It made a new high on
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      Thursday, pulled back on Friday, and a continued pull back on Monday.
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      Not a big move down on Monday.
    • 00:02:38
      We're still on a buy signal here.
    • 00:02:40
      A couple of stocks which used to be market
    • 00:02:42
      leaders, and if they did this 20 years ago, would have certainly shaken the
    • 00:02:47
      market to see AT&T sell off like this, Verizon sell off, and even in the Canadian
    • 00:02:53
      market, huge sell off for Bell and a couple of bad days for Telus as well.
    • 00:02:59
      The market doesn't seem to be overly
    • 00:03:01
      concerned at the moment, and times have changed.
    • 00:03:04
      The focus has changed, and these stocks
    • 00:03:06
      aren't as important to the market as they used to be.
    • 00:03:09
      They are certainly big stocks, but
    • 00:03:12
      they certainly aren't scaring the market at the moment.
    • 00:03:15
      There are other stocks in this sector and we saw Meta trade higher yesterday.
    • 00:03:21
      We also saw Netflix trade higher and even Fox.
    • 00:03:25
      Fox making a new high for this move.
    • 00:03:27
      Even with all Fox's legal problems, I
    • 00:03:30
      guess it's not really their problems, it's their insurance company's problems.
    • 00:03:34
      But yeah, those stocks making new highs while the big telephone companies, those
    • 00:03:39
      legacy telephone companies, sold off sharply on Monday.
    • 00:03:43
      Looking at some of the most actively
    • 00:03:45
      traded US stocks, we saw Tesla make a new high yesterday.
    • 00:03:49
      We had AMD up, not enough to take out
    • 00:03:52
      Friday's high, but certainly closed higher on the day.
    • 00:03:55
      We traded down to the lower channel line,
    • 00:03:57
      so a close below 112.17 give us a sell signal on Tuesday.
    • 00:04:01
      Inside day for NVIDIA.
    • 00:04:04
      Then Marathon Digital, new early warning
    • 00:04:07
      signal up there trading down to the upper channel line.
    • 00:04:10
      Looking for a close on Tuesday below 15.
    • 00:04:13
      59, that would give us a new sell signal.
    • 00:04:16
      Similar situation for Rivian, new early
    • 00:04:18
      warning signal there trading down to the upper channel line.
    • 00:04:21
      Looking for a close on Tuesday below 2180 to give us a sell signal.
    • 00:04:26
      Taking a look at some of the Canadian most actively traded stocks, we've got
    • 00:04:30
      Enbridge back on a sell signal as of Monday's close.
    • 00:04:33
      So pretty ugly looking chart there.
    • 00:04:36
      Similar looking chart for TC Energy series
    • 00:04:39
      of lower highs, and now we're making another lower low.
    • 00:04:42
      Then looking at TD Bank, a new high for TD Bank.
    • 00:04:46
      Last week, if you were looking up, 84.38 was our next price target.
    • 00:04:51
      We got as high as 84.35 yesterday, so we
    • 00:04:54
      didn't hit our price target off by three cents.
    • 00:04:57
      Remember, anytime you're looking at a
    • 00:04:59
      price target, you're looking at a place where people are going to sell, and some
    • 00:05:03
      people will put their orders in under those levels.
    • 00:05:06
      And it looks like that's what happened yesterday.
    • 00:05:09
      But we probably hit 84.38 on Tuesday.
    • 00:05:14
      Then looking at Suncor, we're second day of a sell signal for Suncor.
    • 00:05:18
      Then we've got Canadian Natural Resources
    • 00:05:20
      back on a sell signal as of Monday's close.
    • 00:05:23
      And then Shopify closed slightly higher on the day.
    • 00:05:27
      A bearish reversal day on Friday.
    • 00:05:29
      Yesterday was a positive day for the
    • 00:05:31
      stock, so not a significant bearish reversal day on Friday.
    • 00:05:37
      We're looking to see if we can take it out.
    • 00:05:39
      Now, if you had an order in at 93.75 on Friday, it got filled.
    • 00:05:43
      We had a high of 93.83 on Friday for Shopify.
    • 00:05:48
      Anytime there's a bearish reversal signal,
    • 00:05:51
      we're looking for fall through to the downside on the next day.
    • 00:05:54
      That signal is still in place until we
    • 00:05:57
      close above Friday's high of 93.83. So if we close above 93.
    • 00:06:03
      83 on Tuesday, then that bearish reversal signal can get thrown in the garbage.
    • 00:06:07
      Otherwise, as long as we don't close above 93.83,
    • 00:06:11
      then that bearish reversal signal is still
    • 00:06:14
      in play and could mark the top for this particular move for Shopify.
    • 00:06:20
      Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning.
    • 00:06:22
      Looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open at 9 30 Tuesday morning.
    • 00:06:27
      Have a great day and the next time you'll
    • 00:06:29
      hear my voice, it's going to be on Wednesday morning.

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