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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:05com with a midweek look at the Canadian stock market.
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00:00:09Well, today's all about the Fed.
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00:00:11We are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike.
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00:00:14If the Fed deviates from that at all, that could spark some market excitement.
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00:00:20The VIX has been treading water for the
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00:00:22past couple of days in anticipation of the Fed meeting.
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00:00:26We need to close above 14.20 to tell us the market wants to go bearish.
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00:00:30If we start closing below 13.55, that
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00:00:33would be a sign that the market wants to continue to move higher.
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00:00:37Now, the TSX and the TSX 60 had a small pullback yesterday.
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00:00:41We are up at resistance.
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00:00:43If we can take out the April highs, then
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00:00:45we can look two lines up to a new playing field.
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00:00:48The TSX 60 has not recovered as much as the TSX itself.
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00:00:52That's probably has a lot to do with the banking sector.
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00:00:55So here we are up at 1234.38.
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00:00:59We closed just below that yesterday.
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00:01:02If we can take out the recent highs from
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00:01:05two days ago, then we're looking for a move up to 1250.
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00:01:09Now, while the TSX and the TSX 60 pulled back on Tuesday, midcap, smallcap, and
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00:01:15microcap stocks were all higher on the day.
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00:01:18Now, copper was up nicely yesterday, helped put a bid into the mining sector
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00:01:23and HudBay led the mining sector higher up over 8 % on the day.
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00:01:29We also had a big up day for Ero Copper, up over 4 % on the day.
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00:01:34Moving on to the energy sector, a new high for the energy sector.
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00:01:38On Tuesday, we saw crude oil continue to move higher.
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00:01:41Crude oil is pulling back a little.
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00:01:43We are at resistance of 75 38.
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00:01:45If we can break out above that, then 81.25 comes into play.
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00:01:51We've got natural gas stuck at resistance.
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00:01:53Our price target is 2.73. We closed at 2.74 yesterday.
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00:01:59If we can take out the at the June high, then 3.13 will come into play.
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00:02:04Then looking at a couple of energy stocks, we got Crescent Point making a new high on
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00:02:08Tuesday, new high for Canadian Natural Resources while Baytex pulled back
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00:02:12slightly, having an inside day, so a day of indecision.
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00:02:17Then moving on to the gold sector, fairly quiet.
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00:02:20We're in the channel, still on a buy signal here.
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00:02:23The price of gold still trading in the channel.
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00:02:25It is up in the premarket this morning as is the price of silver.
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00:02:29So both commodities are still on buy signals here.
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00:02:33Looking at B2Gold, the most actively
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00:02:36traded gold stock on the TSX on Tuesday, it is trading back in the channel.
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00:02:40So a close above $4.88 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday.
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00:02:47Barrick is still on a buy signal, and we also have Kinross still on a buy signal.
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00:02:52Then looking at the financials, and this
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00:02:55is the sector that probably led the market lower on Tuesday, you can see the new
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00:02:59early warning signal up there at the top of the screen.
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00:03:03And you can see on the right side chart
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00:03:05that we did close below the previous day's low.
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00:03:08So that is bearish.
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00:03:09Didn't have a lot to do with the major insurance companies.
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00:03:12Manulife was up.
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00:03:14Sun Life was up on Tuesday.
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00:03:15Had a lot more to do with bank stocks.
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00:03:18BMOwas down on the day, did not close
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00:03:20below the previous day's low as Bank of Nova Scotia certainly did.
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00:03:26Down 2.61 % on the day, which is a big move for a bank.
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00:03:31And we are back on a sell signal.
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00:03:33We also saw weakness in Canadian Imperial
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00:03:36Bank of Commerce, which was down over 1 % back in the channel.
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00:03:40So close below $56.94 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal.
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00:03:45We had an inside day for the National
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00:03:47Bank, basically closing unchanged just up two pennies on the day.
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00:03:52Then looking at the Royal Bank, yes, we
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00:03:55pulled back, did not close below the previous day's low unlike the TD Bank
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00:03:59trading rating down to the upper channel line.
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00:04:02So a close on Wednesday below $83.93 would give us a sell signal for the TD Bank.
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00:04:09Then looking at the InfoTech
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00:04:11Index, still on a buy signal here, but barely Shopify not helping back on a sell
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00:04:18signal right now joining BlackBerry and Lightspeed already on sell signals.
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00:04:23What's working?
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00:04:24Well, we've got Celestica still on a buy signal, closing higher on the day.
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00:04:28We saw Constellation Software close slightly higher on the day and a big
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00:04:33update for Coveo up over 6 % on the day, making a new high for this move.
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00:04:40And last up, we had Open Text also higher on the day, up a little over 2 %, making a
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00:04:46new high for this move heading towards the highs from early June.
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00:04:50Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:04:53Thank you very much for your time and attention.
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00:04:55And of course, if you have any questions, just reply to this email and we'll be
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00:05:00happy to answer them as quickly as possible.
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00:05:03Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:05:05I'll be back a little later to look at the US stock market.