Canadian Stock Market Trends - 07262023

00:00:00

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.

00:00:03

It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

00:00:05

com with a midweek look at the Canadian stock market.

00:00:09

Well, today's all about the Fed.

00:00:11

We are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike.

00:00:14

If the Fed deviates from that at all, that could spark some market excitement.

00:00:20

The VIX has been treading water for the

00:00:22

past couple of days in anticipation of the Fed meeting.

00:00:26

We need to close above 14.20 to tell us the market wants to go bearish.

00:00:30

If we start closing below 13.55, that

00:00:33

would be a sign that the market wants to continue to move higher.

00:00:37

Now, the TSX and the TSX 60 had a small pullback yesterday.

00:00:41

We are up at resistance.

00:00:43

If we can take out the April highs, then

00:00:45

we can look two lines up to a new playing field.

00:00:48

The TSX 60 has not recovered as much as the TSX itself.

00:00:52

That's probably has a lot to do with the banking sector.

00:00:55

So here we are up at 1234.38.

00:00:59

We closed just below that yesterday.

00:01:02

If we can take out the recent highs from

00:01:05

two days ago, then we're looking for a move up to 1250.

00:01:09

Now, while the TSX and the TSX 60 pulled back on Tuesday, midcap, smallcap, and

00:01:15

microcap stocks were all higher on the day.

00:01:18

Now, copper was up nicely yesterday, helped put a bid into the mining sector

00:01:23

and HudBay led the mining sector higher up over 8 % on the day.

00:01:29

We also had a big up day for Ero Copper, up over 4 % on the day.

00:01:34

Moving on to the energy sector, a new high for the energy sector.

00:01:38

On Tuesday, we saw crude oil continue to move higher.

00:01:41

Crude oil is pulling back a little.

00:01:43

We are at resistance of 75 38.

00:01:45

If we can break out above that, then 81.25 comes into play.

00:01:51

We've got natural gas stuck at resistance.

00:01:53

Our price target is 2.73. We closed at 2.74 yesterday.

00:01:59

If we can take out the at the June high, then 3.13 will come into play.

00:02:04

Then looking at a couple of energy stocks, we got Crescent Point making a new high on

00:02:08

Tuesday, new high for Canadian Natural Resources while Baytex pulled back

00:02:12

slightly, having an inside day, so a day of indecision.

00:02:17

Then moving on to the gold sector, fairly quiet.

00:02:20

We're in the channel, still on a buy signal here.

00:02:23

The price of gold still trading in the channel.

00:02:25

It is up in the premarket this morning as is the price of silver.

00:02:29

So both commodities are still on buy signals here.

00:02:33

Looking at B2Gold, the most actively

00:02:36

traded gold stock on the TSX on Tuesday, it is trading back in the channel.

00:02:40

So a close above $4.88 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday.

00:02:47

Barrick is still on a buy signal, and we also have Kinross still on a buy signal.

00:02:52

Then looking at the financials, and this

00:02:55

is the sector that probably led the market lower on Tuesday, you can see the new

00:02:59

early warning signal up there at the top of the screen.

00:03:03

And you can see on the right side chart

00:03:05

that we did close below the previous day's low.

00:03:08

So that is bearish.

00:03:09

Didn't have a lot to do with the major insurance companies.

00:03:12

Manulife was up.

00:03:14

Sun Life was up on Tuesday.

00:03:15

Had a lot more to do with bank stocks.

00:03:18

BMOwas down on the day, did not close

00:03:20

below the previous day's low as Bank of Nova Scotia certainly did.

00:03:26

Down 2.61 % on the day, which is a big move for a bank.

00:03:31

And we are back on a sell signal.

00:03:33

We also saw weakness in Canadian Imperial

00:03:36

Bank of Commerce, which was down over 1 % back in the channel.

00:03:40

So close below $56.94 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal.

00:03:45

We had an inside day for the National

00:03:47

Bank, basically closing unchanged just up two pennies on the day.

00:03:52

Then looking at the Royal Bank, yes, we

00:03:55

pulled back, did not close below the previous day's low unlike the TD Bank

00:03:59

trading rating down to the upper channel line.

00:04:02

So a close on Wednesday below $83.93 would give us a sell signal for the TD Bank.

00:04:09

Then looking at the InfoTech

00:04:11

Index, still on a buy signal here, but barely Shopify not helping back on a sell

00:04:18

signal right now joining BlackBerry and Lightspeed already on sell signals.

00:04:23

What's working?

00:04:24

Well, we've got Celestica still on a buy signal, closing higher on the day.

00:04:28

We saw Constellation Software close slightly higher on the day and a big

00:04:33

update for Coveo up over 6 % on the day, making a new high for this move.

00:04:40

And last up, we had Open Text also higher on the day, up a little over 2 %, making a

00:04:46

new high for this move heading towards the highs from early June.

00:04:50

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

00:04:53

Thank you very much for your time and attention.

00:04:55

And of course, if you have any questions, just reply to this email and we'll be

00:05:00

happy to answer them as quickly as possible.

00:05:03

Enjoy the rest of your day.

00:05:05

I'll be back a little later to look at the US stock market.

Transcription