Morning Market Outlook 11302023

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Good morning, everyone.
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Welcome to Thursday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from T heUpTrend.com In the premarket this
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morning, stock index futures are up across the board.
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So far, it looks like the market wants to do some buying.
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But we do have economic numbers coming out at 8:30, including jobless claims.
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And of course, they can add to the premarket volatility.
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Well, yesterday, the VIX closed up a little bit.
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It is still trading below the lower channel line.
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And that, of course, is bullish for stocks.
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Our view of the short term direction of
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the market would change on Thursday if the VIX were to close above
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$14.06. Now, the US dollar index is still on a sell signal, no change.
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That is supportive for higher stock prices.
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Bond prices continue to move higher on Wednesday.
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That put pressure on bond yields.
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And of course, that is supportive for higher stock prices.
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Now, crude oil moved up yesterday.
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It is back on a buy signal.
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Whether you're trading the futures
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contract or the USO ETF, that can help the Canadian market.
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You can see it also put upward pressure on
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gasoline, which is not good for the consumer.
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Gas prices have been falling for a while
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now and they could start to turn around if we get some upward momentum in crude oil.
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It was good for the Canadian market.
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Energy stocks were up on the day just less than one %, while U.
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S.
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Energy stocks were down just under three quarters of a % for the day.
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Now, the DOW put in a new high yesterday
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and reversed, giving us a bearish reversal signal.
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But two things didn't happen for the DOW.
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The DOW actually closed higher on the day
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and certainly didn't close below the previous days low.
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Now, what worked on the DOW?
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Well, the biggest winner was Salesforce followed by Intel and then Nike.
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Those were the big winners on the DOW.
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Like the DOW, the S&P 500 put in a bearish reversal day, but did not close below the
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previous day's low, so not overly concerned about that.
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I have the biggest winners on the S&P 500,
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NetApp, followed by General Motors, followed by Charles Schwab.
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Then looking at the Nasdaq-100, again,
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bearish reversal signal, but we did not close below the previous days low.
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The biggest winners were Workday, followed by CrowdStrike, followed by Illumina.
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And this stock is one of the dogs of the
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Nasdaq, and it's down over 60 % on the year, not something I would want to chase.
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And then we've been following some indexes
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and ETFs to see if the market was going to broaden out.
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We would like the Russell 2000 to participate more.
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It has certainly been on a buy signal
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and has moved up and is stuck at the 181.25 level.
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This is a significant level for the Russell 2000.
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And if we look at a weekly chart, and
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we've talked about this many times, we're stuck in a range, $200
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was the top of the range in 2023 and $160.25 has been the bottom.
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Where are we right now?
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Well, we're right in the exact middle of
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that range, looking to see if we can move up from here.
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That would be a bullish sign for the overall market.
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We're also watching semiconductors closely.
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They're stuck at 200.
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We traded above that level yesterday,
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got as high as 204, ended the day back down at the $200 level, just closing
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slightly above it at $200.72. And then we're also watching the next
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generation Nasdaq stocks, they're stuck at 25.
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We traded above it yesterday before pulling back.
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So the Russell 2000, semiconductors, sixth generation tech stocks, we'd like to see
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all of these start breaking out above resistance.
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That would be a good sign going forward.
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Then looking at the Canadian market, the
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IShares for the Russell 2000 moved up into the channel.
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A close above $30.63 would get us back on a buy signal.
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We saw Brookfield Asset Management lead
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the TSX 60 higher on Wednesday followed by Bank of Nova Scotia.
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So tremendous amount of regret here.
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We gap lower on Tuesday and said, hey, everything we thought about the stock on
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Tuesday was wrong and now we're moving back up.
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So looking for a close above $60.23
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on Thursday to give us a buy signal for the bank in Nova Scotia.
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Brookfield was the next big winner on the TSX 60.
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Let's broaden things out.
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Look at the TSX itself.
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Osisko Mining was the big winner, followed by Filo, followed by West Dome.
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Those were the big winners on the TSX.
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Let's finish off looking at financials.
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We've got a lot of bank earnings this week
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and the bank index has come back up over the last couple of days.
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So we're sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal.
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The TSX financials move back up.
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They are back on a buy signal as of Wednesday's close.
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We were looking for a close above 352.58. We closed at 352.75. In the US, of
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course, we've watched the financials move up as well.
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It hasn't been the banks.
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It's been more the broker, dealers and
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insurance companies have been leading the financials higher.
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There's the S&P bank ETF making a new high for this move.
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And there's the regional bank.
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So not performing as well as insurance
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companies and broker dealers, but they're certainly on buy signals.
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And both of the banks and the regional
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banks made new highs for this move on Wednesday.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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We're coming into month end.
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The market doesn't usually like to.
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Fight against the automatic money that comes in around the month end, so we
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usually don't see a major pullback at this time.
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And I wouldn't be surprised if the next
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couple of days were positive going into the weekend.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on. Friday morning.

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