Stock Market Outlook 10112023

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Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday Morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from mTheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this

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morning, stock index futures are above fair value, commodities are mixed.

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Crude oil is down while gold is up.

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Now we do have PPI numbers coming out this morning and of course that could

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potentially add some volatility to the market before it opens.

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Fear is falling right now.

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We've got the VIX back on sell signal that

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of course is supportive for higher stock prices.

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Yesterday was an interesting day.

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The Canadian market played catch up and

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we've got the Ishares for the TSX 60 back on a buy signal.

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We've got energy stocks and we've got gold stocks back on a buy signal.

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Now I'm not sure this rally can last very long.

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A lot of it is an overreaction to what happened on Monday.

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And if we look at the commodities you're going to see some inside days here.

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Inside day for crude oil, inside day for natural gas, not an inside day for gold.

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It was up another $11 yesterday.

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Looking for a close on Wednesday above $1878 to give us a buy signal for gold.

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And there we have Silver having an inside day on Tuesday as well.

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And then looking at the price of copper, it actually closed lower yesterday.

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So no overall enthusiasm from the copper market after the move up on Monday.

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Now besides the price of copper moving lower, there's a lot of other stuff going

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on that may dampen the enthusiasm of this market.

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I think we may see the market move up until about the 15th and then pull back.

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That would all of course depend on how the

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market reacts to the inflation numbers that we get today and tomorrow.

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We do have the Nasdaq on a buy signal.

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We now have semiconductors back on a buy signal.

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All the major tech stocks that we follow closely are all back on buy signals.

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But we did see some pullbacks yesterday.

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We saw a little pullback for Apple, we saw a little pullback for Microsoft.

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Netflix pulled back still on a sell signal here.

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No change for Netflix.

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And then three of the big cap tech stocks

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that are in the Dow 30 also pulled back yesterday.

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We saw Salesforce, Cisco and IBM all pull back on Tuesday.

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Now if we want a stock market rally to

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last for any length of time, we need a couple of things to happen.

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And yesterday the US dollar index gave us a sell signal, that's supportive for

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higher stock prices and we saw bond yields come down.

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So we have the 5 year back on a sell

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signal, still waiting for the 10 year and the 30 year to come down, but they are

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moving in that direction so those things are supportive for higher stock prices.

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Now once again it looks like the same old

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story is starting to play out and that's not helpful for the overall stock market.

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In the US market, the market is being held

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up and led higher by technology stocks once again.

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In the Canadian market it's the energy

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sector and for a sustainable rally to happen we need that to start to change.

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So if we look at the market through the eyes of the Fly Paper Channel, there are

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some stocks in which investors are still willing to buy the dips.

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Tesla is one of them, Palantir is another one.

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Then Advanced Micro Devices has been stuck

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in neutral for quite a while and is still stuck to the Fly Paper Channel.

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So no change there.

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Investors are giving up on Rivian, just broke through the Fly Paper Channel and so

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now what was previously support is going to act as resistance.

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Bank of America most financial institutions are trading under the Fly

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Paper Channel so we can get a rally up to the Fly Paper Channel.

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It would be quite OD to expect the market

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to be able to break out above that at the present time.

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Then looking at Apple, apple's been a drag

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over the past month or so and recently put in a lower low and right now we're dealing

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with an open gap there that is currently acting as resistance.

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And then Nio is a broken stock and we'd

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look for a move up to the Fly Paper Channel and fill that open gap.

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Another broken stock is Ford and then looking at Amazon.

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Amazon stuck on the Fly Paper Channel.

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It ended yesterday on back on a buy signal but we've got the Fly Paper Channel.

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Then we've got an open gap just above it.

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So not looking for a lot from Amazon at the moment.

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Lucid's been broken for a long time so nothing going on there.

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The airline stocks broke down back in July and that's it for them.

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We could certainly move up to the Fly Paper Channel again.

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We've got an open gap here that could potentially act as resistance.

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Then looking at nvidia another stock, investors are still willing to buy the

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dips and it is still holding up fairly well on the TSX.

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Of course, it's been all about energy stocks and a lot of them are still holding

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the Fly Paper Channel such as Canadian Natural Resources.

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Financial institutions on the other hand, not doing so well right now.

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Whether you're looking at the TD Bank or

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bank of Montreal, TC Energy has been in the doghouse for

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quite a while, so no change for that stock.

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Looking at Suncor.

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Still holding the Fly Paper Channel.

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Here again, another financial institution, the Royal Bank.

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Yes, it can move up from here, but it's

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going to face a lot of resistance into the Fly Paper Channel.

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Then we've got Enbridge.

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Enbridge has been a dog for a while now,

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continues to make lower highs and lower lows.

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Looking at Baytex investors still willing to buy the dip on this stock and then

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looking at athabasca Oil Sands and athabasca still doing very well.

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Still well above the Fly Paper Channel, so investors love that stock.

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Investors still love Cenovus.

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No change there. B2gold.

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A lot of these gold stocks look the same.

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Yes, gold stocks could rise here, but once

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again, they're going to run into the Fly Paper Channel and get stuck then BCE.

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Kind of odd to see this series of lower highs, lower lows.

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And we recently just came down, and we're finding support at $50.

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Yes, we could move up to 56 from where we

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are right now, but that would take a lot of work.

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Okay, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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It looks like we're going to get a higher

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open from where we are right now, but then again, we've got PPI numbers coming.

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It out at 830, and that could certainly change the direction of the market.

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I think the rally has probably got a few more days left in it before it starts to

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fizzle, but we'll just have to wait and see what the market decides to do.

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Enjoy the rest of your day, and next time

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you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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