Canadian Stock Market Outlook 03192024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com. In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures and commodities are currently trading below fair value.

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So so far, it looks like the market wants

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to do a little selling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Now, yesterday, the VIX ended the day in the channel, so that's neutral.

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So options traders are not overly bullish

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or overly bearish going into Tuesday's trading action.

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That might have a lot to do with the Fed meeting, which is starting today.

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And of course, we expect volatility to

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expand dramatically after 2:00 PM, Wednesday afternoon.

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Now, we'll start off today's presentation

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with a quick look at the US market, and then we'll move on to the Canadian market.

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The Dow is currently on a sell signal as of Friday's close,

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and we've got Boeing making a new low yesterday, so that story has not changed.

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The S&P 500 still on a buy signal.

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That would change on Tuesday with a close below $509.

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87.

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The Nasdaq ended Friday on a sell signal, so that didn't change yesterday.

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We traded up into the channel.

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We're currently trading lower in the pre-market this morning.

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The Russell 2000 and the iShares Microcap

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ETF still on sell signals, no change there.

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Now, yesterday, there was a couple of big stories that captivated the market.

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The first one was Google and Apple

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partnering, and it looks like it was better for Google than Apple.

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But there's a Google or Alphabet gapping higher yesterday.

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Apple also gapped higher yesterday, and

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just like Alphabet, it gave up most of its gains going into the close.

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While we traded above the upper channel line yesterday, we did not close above it,

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and we're looking for a close on Tuesday above $174.

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78 to give us a new buy signal for Apple.

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Nvidia traded higher, closed higher yesterday.

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On Tuesday, we're looking for a close below $853.

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73.

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And then looking at Tesla, everybody was excited.

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Tesla was up over 6% yesterday,

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and we're still looking for a close on Tuesday above $180.

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40 to give us a buy signal for Tesla.

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Now moving on to the Canadian market.

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Fairly quiet trading yesterday for the TSX and the TSX-60.

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That's an inside day.

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We did see mid-caps make a new high for this move on Monday.

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Inside day for small caps.

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And unfortunately, the Venture Exchange

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made a new low for this move in the market.

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Now, what worked yesterday, well, health care was the big winner.

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And when you see it up over 3%, you know that's a marijuana stock.

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Then we've got energy, real estate, and industrials.

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What didn't work yesterday, consumer

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staples down less than 1%, so nothing significant there.

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The marijuana stocks were actually the best performing sector in North America on

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Monday, based on the sectors that we follow.

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There's the Horizons Marijuana Life ETF making a new high on Monday.

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And it was a Tilray was the big catalyst

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up over 10%, new buy signal on Friday, follow through to the upside on Monday.

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And then looking at energy stocks, looking

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at the iShares ETF, we made a new high for this move on Monday.

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Now, this morning, I wanted to take a look at industrials.

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We don't talk about this sector a lot.

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Most of the people trading the market are

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trading the resource-based stocks more than industrials.

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But industrials are a huge component of the Canadian market, and the big elephants

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in the room, of course, are the railroad stocks.

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There's their market caps as of yesterday, and then we've got Thompson Reuters, and

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then Waste Connections are the big players in the Canadian industrial sector.

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CP, still on a buy signal, very quiet trading on Monday.

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CN, back on a buy signal as of Monday's

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close, looking to see if we can take out the recent high.

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Then we've got Thompson Reuters, still on a sell signal here, no change.

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And then Waste Connections, one of the best performers in the industrials in

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2024, up over 17% year to date, making a new high on Monday.

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And then the old SNC, I still call it SNC, is up over 31%.

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That's the best performer in the Canadian industrial sector.

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And then we've got WSP Global up over 20 % year to date, still on a buy signal.

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That would change on Tuesday if we were to close below $220.

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58.

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Now, what's not working in the industrials

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in 2024 is Ballard Power down over 24 % year to date.

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Very shaky trading so far this year.

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When you look at the Panic Zone chart, you

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see the elongated pressure zones across the bottom of the screen.

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That's telling you that the stock is

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broken and something you should probably avoid.

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When you look at the Daily Fly Paper channel chart, you can see that it's acted

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as resistance as the market has separated between the Bulls and the bears, and the

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bears are in control, the don't want to play.

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If we start moving up from here, we have

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to assume that it's going to stop at the Fly Paper channel once again.

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The first sign something new is happening is a breakout above the FlyPaper channel.

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You can see back here, yes, we traded

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above the Fly Paper channel back here last summer, but we did not break away from it.

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We poked above it, but did not break away.

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So we would need to see a break away to tell us that something new is happening.

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And so far, coming in to Tuesday's trading action.

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We're down at the bottom here, and no sign

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that things are going to turn around anytime soon.

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Now, let's finish off looking at Canadian banks.

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We've got a couple of winners and a couple of losers right now.

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And on the winners column, we've got Bank

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of Nova Scotia, CIBC, and the National Bank.

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What's not working, the TD Bank, which has

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not performed well, put in a lower high, and now it's rolled over back on a daily

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sell signal as of Monday's close, joining Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian,

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which is back on a sell signal as well as of Monday's close.

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So some people getting out of some of the Canadian bank stocks on Monday.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Monday might turn out to be a buy the rumors, sell the news type situation.

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As we come into Tuesday's trading action,

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we do have all the stocks, all the major US tech stocks we looked at earlier are

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all trading We're getting lower this morning.

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So that might have been the top for this particular move, but only time will tell.

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And then, of course, we've got the Fed meeting, which could certainly change the

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overall direction of the market after 2:00 PM on Wednesday.

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So we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.

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But we do have the Nasdaq already on a short term sell signal, and so traders are

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on edge, looking to lock in some profits up at these levels.

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Enjoy the rest of your day, folks.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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