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00:00:00Hello everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this
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00:00:03weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:07Now, it looked like it was going to be a
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00:00:09pretty flat week for the market up until Friday.
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00:00:12And Friday's big up move certainly helped the indexes going into the close.
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00:00:17We're looking at the weekly chart for the
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00:00:20Ishares for the TSX 60, up 2.43%, still on a weekly sell signal.
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00:00:24No, no change there.
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00:00:26No change for the SPY ETF.
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00:00:28It was up 1.48% on the week, and the
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00:00:31queues for the Nasdaq were up just under 1%.
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00:00:34Still trading below the lower channel line.
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00:00:36So certainly no change in trend there.
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00:00:39The winners and losers were the same on both sides of the border.
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00:00:42We had gold stocks lead the TSX higher up 8.63% on the week, while energy stocks
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00:00:48went in the opposite direction, down 4.21%. In the US.
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00:00:53It was the Sau, up over 9% on the week.
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00:00:56And then within the energy sector, we had
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00:00:59the oil and gas explorers down 3.18% on the week.
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00:01:03So still no change in trend
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00:01:05Still on a weekly sell signal.
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00:01:07Looking at the daily charts, you can see the big up move on Friday for the TSX and
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00:01:12the TSX 60, both trading up into an open gap.
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00:01:15So we'll have to see how the market deals with the top of that open gap on Monday.
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00:01:20Then you see the Dow moving up back on a buy signal as of Friday's close.
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00:01:25We also saw the S&P 500 back on a buy signal.
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00:01:29The Nasdaq 100 just on the edge of a new buy signal, while the composite index and
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00:01:34the Russell 2000 both ended Friday on buy signals.
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00:01:39Now, still looking at daily charts, here, what worked on the US.
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00:01:42Markets on Friday.
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00:01:43It was the chip sector, up 4.6%. And what worked on the Dow?
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00:01:48Well, it was Intel up 4.25% on the day, so Intel has come back nicely.
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00:01:53Remember, Intel was the absolute dog of the Dow in 2022.
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00:01:58It was the biggest loser on the Dow, so it could be a dog of the Dow type trade where
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00:02:02people are going back and buying the worst performing stocks from 2022.
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00:02:07What worked on the TSX on Friday?
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00:02:09Well, it was base metals.
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00:02:10And the biggest winner there was HUDBay, up over 9% on the day.
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00:02:15Now, speaking of dogs of the Dow, dogs of the TSX.
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00:02:17The biggest loser in 2022 on the TSX 60 was Shopify.
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00:02:21Shopify is back on a buy signal as of Wednesday's close, but certainly no follow
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00:02:26through to the upside on Thursday or Friday.
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00:02:30Looking at commodity prices, no trend changes this week.
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00:02:33We still have crude oil on a sell signal down 5.39%. Natural gas making a new low,
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00:02:38down another 15.56%. Then we've got copper.
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00:02:43Copper is trying to break out above recent highs.
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00:02:46No joy there, but still on a buy signal.
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00:02:48Gold made a new high this week, hit 1875 on Friday.
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00:02:52So that could be the end of this particular move.
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00:02:55We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:02:57First thing I'd be looking for is a close below this week's low next week.
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00:03:01That would be the first sign something new is happening.
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00:03:03Now.
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00:03:04There is a bit of disturbance in the metals as we saw silver make a new high
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00:03:08for this move and then closed lower on the week.
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00:03:11So we weren't able to hit $25.
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00:03:13And that price action actually gives us a Bearish Engulfment signal.
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00:03:17Remember, the price action of this week
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00:03:20engulfed the previous week's price action and we closed lower on the week.
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00:03:24So that's how you get a
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00:03:25Bearish Engulfment signal looking at the VIX.
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00:03:28The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal that is supported for higher stock prices.
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00:03:33Looking for a close above 25.
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00:03:3542 this coming Friday to give us a sell signal.
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00:03:38And we came down hard on Friday.
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00:03:40We are back on a sell signal that's supported for higher stock prices that
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00:03:44would change on Monday with a close above 22.
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00:03:4794.
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00:03:48Let's just finish off with one more chart, and that is the Fed balance sheet.
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00:03:53You can see the nice bull market that we had up until the start of 2022.
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00:03:58Then the Fed started reducing their balance sheet.
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00:04:00Until this trend changes direction, the
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00:04:04stock market will be able to go up, but not for any length of time.
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00:04:09And so, yes, we will see many buying
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00:04:12opportunities for short term trades, but I don't think we're going to see a lot of
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00:04:16long term action to the upside until this trend starts to change direction and the
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00:04:22Fed starts to release more money to the banking system.
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00:04:26Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:04:29It was all about Friday.
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00:04:31Let's see if we can get some momentum and some continuation to the upside on Monday.
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00:04:36Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:04:37The next time you'll hear my voice this week is going to be on Wednesday morning.
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00:05:11Thank you.