Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 20230108

en-us French Canadian Arabic Chinese German Japanese Korean Spanish

How was the video ?

Description

Auto Scroll

00:00:00

Hello everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this
00:00:03

weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
00:00:07

Now, it looked like it was going to be a
00:00:09

pretty flat week for the market up until Friday.
00:00:12

And Friday's big up move certainly helped the indexes going into the close.
00:00:17

We're looking at the weekly chart for the
00:00:20

Ishares for the TSX 60, up 2.43%, still on a weekly sell signal.
00:00:24

No, no change there.
00:00:26

No change for the SPY ETF.
00:00:28

It was up 1.48% on the week, and the
00:00:31

queues for the Nasdaq were up just under 1%.
00:00:34

Still trading below the lower channel line.
00:00:36

So certainly no change in trend there.
00:00:39

The winners and losers were the same on both sides of the border.
00:00:42

We had gold stocks lead the TSX higher up 8.63% on the week, while energy stocks
00:00:48

went in the opposite direction, down 4.21%. In the US.
00:00:53

It was the Sau, up over 9% on the week.
00:00:56

And then within the energy sector, we had
00:00:59

the oil and gas explorers down 3.18% on the week.
00:01:03

So still no change in trend
00:01:05

Still on a weekly sell signal.
00:01:07

Looking at the daily charts, you can see the big up move on Friday for the TSX and
00:01:12

the TSX 60, both trading up into an open gap.
00:01:15

So we'll have to see how the market deals with the top of that open gap on Monday.
00:01:20

Then you see the Dow moving up back on a buy signal as of Friday's close.
00:01:25

We also saw the S&P 500 back on a buy signal.
00:01:29

The Nasdaq 100 just on the edge of a new buy signal, while the composite index and
00:01:34

the Russell 2000 both ended Friday on buy signals.
00:01:39

Now, still looking at daily charts, here, what worked on the US.
00:01:42

Markets on Friday.
00:01:43

It was the chip sector, up 4.6%. And what worked on the Dow?
00:01:48

Well, it was Intel up 4.25% on the day, so Intel has come back nicely.
00:01:53

Remember, Intel was the absolute dog of the Dow in 2022.
00:01:58

It was the biggest loser on the Dow, so it could be a dog of the Dow type trade where
00:02:02

people are going back and buying the worst performing stocks from 2022.
00:02:07

What worked on the TSX on Friday?
00:02:09

Well, it was base metals.
00:02:10

And the biggest winner there was HUDBay, up over 9% on the day.
00:02:15

Now, speaking of dogs of the Dow, dogs of the TSX.
00:02:17

The biggest loser in 2022 on the TSX 60 was Shopify.
00:02:21

Shopify is back on a buy signal as of Wednesday's close, but certainly no follow
00:02:26

through to the upside on Thursday or Friday.
00:02:30

Looking at commodity prices, no trend changes this week.
00:02:33

We still have crude oil on a sell signal down 5.39%. Natural gas making a new low,
00:02:38

down another 15.56%. Then we've got copper.
00:02:43

Copper is trying to break out above recent highs.
00:02:46

No joy there, but still on a buy signal.
00:02:48

Gold made a new high this week, hit 1875 on Friday.
00:02:52

So that could be the end of this particular move.
00:02:55

We'll just have to wait and see.
00:02:57

First thing I'd be looking for is a close below this week's low next week.
00:03:01

That would be the first sign something new is happening.
00:03:03

Now.
00:03:04

There is a bit of disturbance in the metals as we saw silver make a new high
00:03:08

for this move and then closed lower on the week.
00:03:11

So we weren't able to hit $25.
00:03:13

And that price action actually gives us a Bearish Engulfment signal.
00:03:17

Remember, the price action of this week
00:03:20

engulfed the previous week's price action and we closed lower on the week.
00:03:24

So that's how you get a
00:03:25

Bearish Engulfment signal looking at the VIX.
00:03:28

The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal that is supported for higher stock prices.
00:03:33

Looking for a close above 25.
00:03:35

42 this coming Friday to give us a sell signal.
00:03:38

And we came down hard on Friday.
00:03:40

We are back on a sell signal that's supported for higher stock prices that
00:03:44

would change on Monday with a close above 22.
00:03:47

94.
00:03:48

Let's just finish off with one more chart, and that is the Fed balance sheet.
00:03:53

You can see the nice bull market that we had up until the start of 2022.
00:03:58

Then the Fed started reducing their balance sheet.
00:04:00

Until this trend changes direction, the
00:04:04

stock market will be able to go up, but not for any length of time.
00:04:09

And so, yes, we will see many buying
00:04:12

opportunities for short term trades, but I don't think we're going to see a lot of
00:04:16

long term action to the upside until this trend starts to change direction and the
00:04:22

Fed starts to release more money to the banking system.
00:04:26

Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
00:04:29

It was all about Friday.
00:04:31

Let's see if we can get some momentum and some continuation to the upside on Monday.
00:04:36

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
00:04:37

The next time you'll hear my voice this week is going to be on Wednesday morning.
00:05:11

Thank you.

Transcription