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00:00:01Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning.
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00:00:04When I first got up this morning, stock index futures were above fair value, but
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00:00:08now they've flipped and we've got DOW futures currently down 175 points.
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00:00:13So it looks like we may see some selling
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00:00:15at the open on Friday morning, but it is still early, things could change.
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00:00:21Not a busy economic calendar on Friday, not expecting a lot of
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00:00:25volatility off the numbers that come out at 8:30 this morning.
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00:00:30Now, looking at the TSX, we made a new low
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00:00:32for this move yesterday before closing slightly lower on the day.
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00:00:36For the week, we're down 1.59 % trading down into the channel.
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00:00:41For the month, we're down 2.79 % and trading back in the channel, certainly
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00:00:47nowhere near the lows from December or January.
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00:00:52Looking at the S&P 500, again, we made a new low yesterday before recovering.
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00:00:56That looks like an outside reversal day.
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00:00:59I don't think we're going to get fall
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00:01:01through to the upside on Friday, but of course, things could change.
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00:01:04For the week, the S&P 500 is down 1.64 %.
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00:01:09For the month, it's down 1.58 %.
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00:01:13I'm sure some people are talking about the
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00:01:14fact that we're down for the third week in a row.
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00:01:18Looking at the VIX and the VIX
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00:01:21pulled back yesterday had a bearish reversal day on Wednesday.
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00:01:24We're back below 21.88. And of course, that 200 day moving
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00:01:29average is currently holding the VIX in check.
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00:01:33Now looking at the sectors and subsectors
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00:01:36of the US market, it's not looking very good.
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00:01:39What's normal about it, of course, is the Consumer Discretionary
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00:01:43is selling off while consumer staples are holding their own.
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00:01:47Consumer Staples
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00:01:48are currently on a buy signal, but as you can see, there's no trend.
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00:01:52The biggest loser so far in 2023 has been the Healthcare sector.
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00:01:57It's been in a downtrend since early December.
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00:02:01Then looking at Semiconductors, they had a nice big up day yesterday.
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00:02:05That was on the back of NVIDIA, which
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00:02:07gapped higher and closed up over 14 % on the day.
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00:02:12Now, would I chase that trade?
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00:02:14Well, the answer is absolutely not.
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00:02:16We've traded up through the top of the panic zones.
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00:02:18Obviously, that's a Panic Buying
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00:02:21and whatever catalyst caused the traders to go crazy
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00:02:26yesterday, it'll probably dissipate over the next couple of days.
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00:02:29So I certainly wouldn't want to chase that.
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00:02:32Semiconductors across the board were up yesterday.
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00:02:35Even Intel was up just a little over half a %.
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00:02:39And then AMD was up 4.1 % trading back into the channel.
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00:02:44We need to close on Friday for AMD above 82.45. Not expecting that to happen.
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00:02:52Quick look at the Canadian market.
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00:02:54The TSX and the TSX 60 have traded down to the 200 day moving average.
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00:02:58So it'll be interesting to see if the market wants to hold those levels or not.
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00:03:04We do have Consumer
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00:03:06Staples outpacing Consumer Discretionary at the moment, and that, of
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00:03:10course, is what should happen during a recession.
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00:03:13Then we've got the Gold index making a new low yesterday.
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00:03:16It held at 260, it closed at 261.35. If we start breaking down below
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00:03:24260, then I would imagine that 250 is going to be our next target.
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00:03:27We are down at the bottom of the Panic Zones.
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00:03:30The pressure zone has formed.
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00:03:31We would certainly entertain any buy signals at this point.
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00:03:35Unfortunately, we're now below the fly paper channel, so our
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00:03:39expectations on the upside would be rather limited at the moment.
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00:03:43If we go back in time, you can see we traded up to the fly paper channel and
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00:03:47pulled back, up to the Fly Paper channel and pulled back.
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00:03:50And then finally, on the third try, we got up over the fly paper channel.
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00:03:55Not expecting a lot from the gold sector,
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00:03:57even if it does turn around at these current oversold levels.
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00:04:03Let's finish off today's presentation looking at my five stocks.
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00:04:07I'm currently short four of the five stocks and starting off with Apple.
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00:04:13Apple has been on a sell signal for the last couple of days, it is still
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00:04:16finding support at this open gap here and stuck to the 150 level.
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00:04:22If we start to break down below that gap,
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00:04:25then 143.75 and 137.50 start to come into play.
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00:04:32Looking at Amazon, we've been short Amazon
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00:04:34for the past few weeks, trying to get to 87.50. You can see there's a
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00:04:40gap right here that could act as a magnet and a potential area of support port.
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00:04:45We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:04:47And then the CME Group, if you've been
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00:04:49with us for any length of time, you know that for the longest time, the CME Group
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00:04:54was my disappointment and was trading sideways.
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00:04:57Finally, it broke out and moved two lines up.
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00:05:01We've been able to take money off the
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00:05:02table up here at 187.50 and hoping to get up to 193.75.
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00:05:09But so far nothing has happened in that regard.
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00:05:12We moved up to those levels and stopped.
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00:05:14Now on Friday, we're looking for a close
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00:05:16below 184.22 to kick us out of the CME group.
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00:05:22Then looking at Goldman Sachs, again,
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00:05:23we've been on a sell signal for the last couple of days, holding 359.38 as support.
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00:05:29If that breaks, then we would expect a
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00:05:32move down to 343.75. Last up, but we're currently short VISA.
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00:05:38Visa is holding 218. 75.
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00:05:40If that breaks, then that opens up the possibility to move down to 210.94 and
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00:05:45then 203.13. Now, VISA had a pretty interesting event last month.
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00:05:53We had a huge move up and a huge reversal.
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00:05:56Luckily, we had orders in ahead of time that got filled.
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00:06:00And then at the end of the day, we're
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00:06:01sitting with a very small position and got kicked out a couple of days ago.
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00:06:06And so we're on a sell signal right now expecting lower prices for Visa.
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00:06:13Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:06:16Stock index futures continue to
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00:06:18trade lower with the DOW futures currently down 186 points.
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00:06:22So we are looking for some selling at the open on Friday morning.
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00:06:27Have a great day. Enjoy your weekend.
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00:06:28And the next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.