-
00:00:00Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning.
-
00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
-
00:00:05In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board.
-
00:00:09Apparently, the market is worried about European banks now.
-
00:00:13Dao futures currently down 300 points
-
00:00:16while crude oil is down nearly $3 in the premarket on Friday morning.
-
00:00:21Now, let's start off the presentation just doing a recap on the week.
-
00:00:26I printed off some weekly charts this morning just to see where the market was.
-
00:00:30The DOW, which is still on a weekly sell signal is up just over three quarters of a
-
00:00:36% while the TSX having an inside week is up just a little over a third of a %.
-
00:00:42And then the Nasdaq, which has been
-
00:00:44leading the market higher all week is up 1.35 % going into Friday's trading action.
-
00:00:50Now, with the futures down in the pre
-
00:00:51market this morning, all of those gains could be erased on Friday.
-
00:00:57Now, the Fed meeting has come and gone,
-
00:00:59and that's what this week has been all about.
-
00:01:02Typically, I like to sit on my hands during a Fed meeting.
-
00:01:05Back in the 90s when all I did was trade the S&P 500 futures contract,
-
00:01:11it was quite exciting to be a short term trader, but those days are long gone.
-
00:01:17What happens on a Fed day doesn't usually
-
00:01:20represent what's going to happen longer term.
-
00:01:23A lot of short term gyrations on a Fed
-
00:01:26day, most of them are in the wrong direction, and it usually takes the market
-
00:01:31a day or two to actually digest what happened during the Fed day.
-
00:01:35And so here we are coming into the Fed meeting the other day.
-
00:01:39We were looking at this chart and I said
-
00:01:42that I thought things would turn out more like that than like that.
-
00:01:46And moving ahead a couple of days, this is what happened.
-
00:01:50We certainly had a lot of volatility on Wednesday.
-
00:01:53We made a new high before reversing.
-
00:01:56And yesterday we actually made a lower low than Wednesday's low.
-
00:01:59We actually closed higher on the day.
-
00:02:02The Spider S&P 500 closed up $1.6. It's
-
00:02:05down about $3 in the premarket this morning.
-
00:02:08So we are heading lower this morning.
-
00:02:10Of course, it's more important where we close than where we open.
-
00:02:14And so on Friday, we're looking for a
-
00:02:16close below 389.97 to give us a sell signal for the SPY ETF.
-
00:02:22Now, the TSX is still on a sell signal.
-
00:02:25We traded up to the upper channel line on
-
00:02:27Wednesday and then reversed on Thursday, looking for a close on Friday above
-
00:02:33$30.04. Last time I checked, Crude oil was down about $3 in the premarket, and I
-
00:02:38don't think that's going to help the TSX on Friday.
-
00:02:41Now, what worked yesterday?
-
00:02:43Well, gold miners continued to move higher on both sides of the border.
-
00:02:47And what didn't work?
-
00:02:48Well, anything financial related, US banks made a new closing low yesterday.
-
00:02:53Us regional banks also made a new closing low yesterday.
-
00:02:57Here are some of the regional banks.
-
00:02:59There's Zions, there's Comerica, then
-
00:03:02we've got Key Corp, we've got First Republic, the one that's been in the news
-
00:03:06all week, making a new closing low yesterday.
-
00:03:09Then we've got Charles Schwab, which has been in the news all week.
-
00:03:13Then we've got the only bank here that
-
00:03:16I've had any experience with, which is M&T Bank, making a new low yesterday.
-
00:03:21Looking at the Canadian market, we've got
-
00:03:23a new closing low for financials, a new closing low for the banking sector itself.
-
00:03:30Then the banks with the most US exposure, of course, are getting hit hard.
-
00:03:35We've got Bank of Montreal, we've got a new low and a new closing low for the
-
00:03:39Royal Bank, and similar situation for the TD Bank.
-
00:03:43Just a couple of more bank stocks here.
-
00:03:45We've got Bank of America making a new low yesterday.
-
00:03:48We've got Barclays coming back down to the recent lows.
-
00:03:52Credit Swiss really hasn't moved much
-
00:03:54since it had that announcement it was being acquired.
-
00:03:57It's down in the premarket this morning.
-
00:04:00Big down day yesterday for Deutsche Bank,
-
00:04:02and it's continuing to trade lower this morning.
-
00:04:05We've got ING coming back down to fill the open gap.
-
00:04:08And then last up, we've got UBS, which
-
00:04:11popped the other day on the announcement it was acquiring Credit Suisse.
-
00:04:16But I guess investors now realize what they actually acquired and the stock has
-
00:04:21come back down and it's trading lower this morning.
-
00:04:25Let's finish off with a quick look at the Nasdaq, which has been leading the
-
00:04:29market higher this week, had an inside day yesterday.
-
00:04:33There's the TSX InfoTech sector up over 1 % as well on Thursday.
-
00:04:39It was an inside day for Cloud Computing.
-
00:04:41It was an inside day for Cyber Security stocks. Fang stocks had an inside day.
-
00:04:47Then we saw the social media stocks continue to move higher.
-
00:04:52And then, of course, it has been the Semiconductors that have been leading the
-
00:04:55Nasdaq higher, making a new high for this move on Thursday.
-
00:05:00Last up, the VIX.
-
00:05:01The VIX is still on a sell signal which is
-
00:05:03supportive for higher stock prices, but it moved up yesterday.
-
00:05:07We've had quite a few wild days since the banking crisis started.
-
00:05:12Looking for a close on Friday above 25.79 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX.
-
00:05:18That, of course, would be negative for stocks.
-
00:05:20Notice as the VIX has come down over the
-
00:05:22past couple of days, the pros never gave up control.
-
00:05:25A lot of people have pointed that out to me.
-
00:05:27And yeah, that's exactly what it meant to me as well was that I shouldn't have too
-
00:05:32much confidence in the up move that we saw this week coming into the Fed meeting.
-
00:05:39Okay, folks, that is all for this
-
00:05:40morning's presentation looking for lower stock prices at 9:30 this morning.
-
00:05:46Enjoy the rest of your day and enjoy your weekend.
-
00:05:50Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.