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00:00:00Good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday Morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from The
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00:00:05UpTrend.com. Well things are fairly quiet out there this morning.
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00:00:09Stock index features are slightly above fair
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00:00:11value with the Nasdaq leading the market higher.
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00:00:14But so far it really looks like.,
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00:00:16We are going to have a quiet open at 9:30 Tuesday morning.
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00:00:20Now looking at Monday's trading action we've
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00:00:22got the VIX closing in the channel.
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00:00:24Things would change on Tuesday with a close above $20.01.
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00:00:28Now looking at the US dollar index, and a lot of people are watching this closely,
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00:00:32because if we go back in time and I'll just leave my
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00:00:35mouse in the middle of the screen here
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00:00:37right at when things started to change for the US dollar index, that is also the time
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00:00:42and place when the stock market started to move up.
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00:00:45So a lot of people are looking at the connection and looking at the
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00:00:49fact that the US dollar index is back on a
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00:00:51buy signal and that could be negative for stocks.
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00:00:54It's certainly negative for other currencies with the Euro and the Japanese
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00:00:58yen both continuing to move lower on Monday.
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00:01:02Still leaving my mouse in the middle of the screen.
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00:01:04You can see when bond yields started to
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00:01:07move down that helped the stock market move higher.
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00:01:10And now look at the right hand side of the
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00:01:11screen and you can see that bond yields have moved up over the past couple of days
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00:01:16and again that could be negative for stocks.
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00:01:19What worked yesterday?
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00:01:20Well anything interest related did move up yesterday, but not in a big way.
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00:01:25Utilities and insurance stocks did fairly well.
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00:01:29Compared to the rest of the market.
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00:01:31Which was negative on Monday.
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00:01:33Now in the Canadian market the big
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00:01:36loser was base metals and you can see that
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00:01:40first quantum was the big loser on the TSX 60 on Monday.
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00:01:44Then looking at the US it was oil and gas explorers.
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00:01:48Those were the big losers on Monday in the US.
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00:01:51Now looking at the Nasdaq 100 it is
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00:01:54trading higher in the Premarket this morning.
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00:01:55But notice that for the past two days
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00:01:57we've actually closed below the previous day's low.
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00:02:00So that's a bearish chart pattern there.
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00:02:03We did fill the open gap and that is now
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00:02:05closed and we're still trading above the upper channel line.
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00:02:08So nothing has really broken yet, but we may be setting up to continue.
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00:02:13To move lower from here.
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00:02:14It was the semiconductors that pulled down the Nasdaq yesterday and intel was the big
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00:02:19loser which is a Dow stock, a Nasdaq stock and an S&P 500 stock.
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00:02:24So a close blow 28 42 would give us a sell signal for intel on Tuesday.
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00:02:29And you can see that we drove up to the
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00:02:32highs from back in November and then quickly reversed.
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00:02:35Now I don't want you to be trading intel.
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00:02:37You can trade Advanced Micro Devices which
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00:02:40did pull back yesterday down over 2% on the day, closer to 3%.
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00:02:45And then you could also trade Nvidia.
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00:02:47Those are much better stocks to trade.
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00:02:49Nvidia very steady on Monday, down just
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00:02:52$0.11, which is pretty good for a $200 stock.
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00:02:56Let's finish off looking at commodities.
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00:02:57And there were no trend changes on Monday
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00:02:59for the USO, which made a new low before reversing and closing higher on the day.
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00:03:04So that could be the bottom for crude oil.
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00:03:08We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:03:09That's also a similar set up for
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00:03:12gasoline, which made a new low yesterday before reversing.
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00:03:15And then natural gas, not a lot of movement yesterday.
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00:03:19We're trying to put in a low here, but there isn't enough upward momentum to
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00:03:24really declare that anything new is happening just yet.
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00:03:28Then looking at the metals we had, gold
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00:03:29dropped sharply on Friday inside day yesterday for the GLD, new low for
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00:03:35palladium, new low for platinum, and a new low for silver on Monday.
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00:03:40So certainly no new trend changes to talk about on Tuesday morning.
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00:03:44Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:03:47So far. It looks like we're going to have a fairly
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00:03:49quiet open when the market opens at 930 Tuesday morning.
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00:03:53Have a great day.
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00:03:54Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
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00:04:27Thank you.