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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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00:00:06Well, after a couple of very bullish days, the market has settled down this morning
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00:00:10and things are very quiet out there in the premarket on Wednesday morning.
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00:00:15Today, of course, is the second day of the
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00:00:17Fed meeting and so after 2 PM, we expect the excitement to start.
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00:00:22Now, you've probably heard me say this
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00:00:24before, but I don't usually trade on Fed days.
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00:00:26It's a little too complicated.
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00:00:29And the market's reaction, the initial
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00:00:32reaction is usually not the ultimate destination for the market.
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00:00:37But we're waiting for the announcement at 2 PM.
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00:00:41The money is still on a 25 basis point rate hike.
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00:00:45Then we get the press conference, and then after that, of course, you get how the
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00:00:49market reacts to the announcement and the press conference.
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00:00:53If they don't raise 25 basis points, that could signal to the market that the
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00:00:59financial crisis has not come to an end just yet.
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00:01:04So then they're fighting two battles.
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00:01:05They're fighting inflation and a potential banking crisis.
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00:01:10And that's probably not a good thing for the economy going forward.
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00:01:15Now, yesterday, the VIX came down hard and
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00:01:17is back on a sell signal which is supportive for higher stock prices.
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00:01:21And we saw a lot of new buy signals from
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00:01:23yesterday's trading action, including for the S&P 500.
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00:01:27Now, I think the market is probably going to do something like this back on a buy
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00:01:32signal, quick reversal and a move back down.
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00:01:35I think there's a far more likely chance
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00:01:37of that happening than a new major uptrend starting on Wednesday.
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00:01:42Now, the TSX moved up yesterday.
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00:01:44It is still on a sell signal, no change there.
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00:01:47Then just looking at the banks that have been in the news, First Republic was up
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00:01:51nearly 30 % yesterday, but you can hardly see that on a chart.
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00:01:55Of course, it was an inside day.
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00:01:57Credit Suisse had an inside day.
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00:02:00UBS had a huge update yesterday, up nearly 12 %.
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00:02:04So I guess investors are feeling a lot
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00:02:07better about the transaction now that they've got more information.
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00:02:11And so that was a big update for UBS.
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00:02:14Now, crude oil was up yesterday.
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00:02:15It's down a little in the premarket this morning, still no change in trend.
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00:02:19Copper was up sharply yesterday, still no change in trend.
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00:02:23The price of gold pulled back yesterday.
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00:02:25It is up a couple of dollars in the premarket this morning, but it looks like
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00:02:29gold may have topped for this particular move.
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00:02:33So you got up over 2,000.
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00:02:35If you had an order in at 2,000, it got
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00:02:37filled and then the market has quickly reversed.
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00:02:40Tesla is now back on a buy signal with the S&P 500 and there's Apple moving up
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00:02:45yesterday, making a new high for this move.
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00:02:48Of course, we took profits at 156.25. Now
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00:02:52we're looking to see if we can sell some more at 162.50. And looking at Shopify on
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00:02:58the TSX, it had nice update yesterday, up over 4.5 %.
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00:03:03We're trying to break out above
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00:03:0562.50. We closed just above it and you can see the recent high.
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00:03:09So we're trying to break out above that.
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00:03:11If we can do that, our next mathematical target is 68.75. But of course, if you
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00:03:16look to the left, you can see there's an open gap there.
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00:03:19The bottom of that open gap is at
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00:03:2267.40. So if I was trading Shopify on the TSX, I'd probably put an order in at
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00:03:2867.38 instead of 68.75. Okay, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:03:35This is a day when I sit on my hands.
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00:03:36Yes, there were some new signals from yesterday.
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00:03:39Yesterday was a nice big update for the market.
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00:03:42I'm not going to take any of those signals this morning.
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00:03:44I'll wait and see how today turns out.
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00:03:48But yeah, I don't really like to trade on Fed days.
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00:03:50They're too volatile and often the
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00:03:55market's initial reaction is not the ultimate destination for the market.
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00:04:00Have a great day, folks.
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00:04:01Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday.