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00:00:00Well, good morning, everyone.
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00:00:01Welcome to Friday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from The
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00:00:04UpTrend.com. Let me take you back 24 hours, and I certainly screwed up.
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00:00:09I sent out the wrong link yesterday.
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00:00:12Apparently, copying and pasting is more
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00:00:14complicated than people make it out to be, and I still have to learn how to do that.
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00:00:19I apologize for that.
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00:00:20The easiest way to deal with that, of course, is just hit reply on any email
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00:00:25you've received from us and let us know what's broken.
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00:00:29A lot of people did that yesterday.
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00:00:30Some people filled out support tickets.
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00:00:34You don't have to do that.
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00:00:35Just contact us any way you can, the
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00:00:38easiest way you can, and we'll get the problem fixed as quickly as possible.
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00:00:42So, again, I apologize for that. Today.
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00:00:46We're expecting some inflation numbers to come out at 830 this morning,
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00:00:50the PPI.
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00:00:51That could add some volatility to the market.
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00:00:53And then, of course, everybody's waiting to see what the Fed does next week.
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00:00:58In after hours trading, we had Costco out.
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00:01:01It was down slightly, so no major change there.
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00:01:04It's still on a sell signal.
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00:01:05And Lululemon was out with earnings, and people didn't like that at all.
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00:01:10And so we're trading down at just under the 350 level.
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00:01:14That would certainly give us a sell signal if that's where we end.
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00:01:17At the end of the day, this has been a profitable trade.
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00:01:20You've had lots of opportunities to take some profits along the way.
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00:01:24And even if you have to get out at that
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00:01:26level on Monday, that is still going to be a profitable trade.
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00:01:31Now, I made some weekly charts this
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00:01:33morning taking a look at what's been going on this week.
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00:01:36The S&P 500 ETF is down 2.62%. Here's the
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00:01:41numbers we're going to be watching closely on Friday to see if the market, even
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00:01:45though it is going to be volatile on Friday, we're looking to see if we take
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00:01:49out the high of the week or the low of the week.
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00:01:52Looking at the Nasdaq 100 ETF, we're down 2.97% on the week.
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00:01:58And again, here's the numbers we're going
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00:01:59to be looking at this week's high, this week's low.
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00:02:02What do we do on Friday?
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00:02:03We could have an inside week on Friday.
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00:02:05We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:02:07And then looking at the Ishares for the
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00:02:09TSX 60, we're down 2.37% high the week up there at 31.
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00:02:1426.
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00:02:15Of course, our mathematical resistance is at 31.
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00:02:1825. And then the low of the week is at 30.
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00:02:2150. And you can see that 30.
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00:02:2450 is acting as support.
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00:02:25We came down hard the other day, and that
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00:02:28has continued to act as support on both Wednesday and Thursday.
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00:02:33Now, why is the TSX stuck there?
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00:02:36Well, it's the 200 day moving average that is currently acting as support.
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00:02:40Then if we look at the Nasdaq 100 ETF, you
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00:02:44can see that we closed back in the channel on Thursday.
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00:02:48We're holding support at 281. 25.
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00:02:52If you look back here, what was resistance on the way up?
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00:02:55Access support on the way down.
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00:02:57So that's a very important level of support if that breaks.
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00:03:01And we're looking for a move down to 265.
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00:03:0363.
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00:03:04And of course, there's an open gap there that could potentially act as resistance.
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00:03:09The Nasdaq 100 is also stuck in the Flypaper Channel, and unlike the Dow and
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00:03:15the TSX, it has not been able to break out above that so far.
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00:03:19That would be a very bullish sign if we could start not only breaking out above
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00:03:23the flypaper channel, but breaking away from it.
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00:03:27Now, looking at the S&P 500 ETF, we're still on a sell signal here.
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00:03:31Moved up into the channel yesterday.
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00:03:33We're finding support at the 100 day moving average at the present time.
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00:03:39Now moving on to the VIX.
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00:03:40The VIX made a new high for this move yesterday before pulling back, looking for
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00:03:45a close on Friday below $20..86. Then looking at the US.
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00:03:50Dollar index, it basically treaded water
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00:03:52on Thursday, as did bonds having an inside day.
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00:03:56We saw the price of gold move up $2.30 on Thursday.
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00:04:00Crude oil continued to move higher while
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00:04:02natural gas moved up, still trading below the lower channel line.
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00:04:06Then looking at Canadian banks, this chart looks a lot different than the US.
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00:04:10Bank chart.
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00:04:11But again, Canadian banks are moving lower.
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00:04:13On Thursday, they were led lower by the Bank of Montreal.
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00:04:17Now, when we look at US
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00:04:18Banks, this chart looks very spastic.
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00:04:20But the one thing is true is we are on a sell signal right now.
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00:04:23Now, of course, banks are part of the
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00:04:26financials, and the financial chart looks much more organized.
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00:04:29And of course, it includes not only banks,
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00:04:31but insurance companies, brokerage firms, et cetera.
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00:04:34And so you can see we're holding support there at 34.
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00:04:3750. We've done that for the last three days.
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00:04:40So it'd be interesting to see how Friday closes out.
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00:04:43One US.
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00:04:44Financial stock that got hit hard yesterday is Lincoln National.
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00:04:47It's in the insurance business, making a new low for this move.
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00:04:50And as you can see, it's had a rough ride over the past month or so.
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00:04:55Let's finish off today's presentation,
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00:04:57looking at some of Warren Buffett's top holdings.
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00:05:00I recently added the Warren Buffett list to the website.
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00:05:05You can see that Coca Cola and Kraft are doing fairly well right now.
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00:05:09There's a new closing high for Kraft on Thursday.
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00:05:13Of course, he also owns some bank stocks.
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00:05:15He's got Bank of America and Citigroup as part of his top holdings.
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00:05:19Now, he also has some holdings in which I am trading against him.
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00:05:23I am currently short Amazon, I'm currently short Apple, and I'm currently short Visa.
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00:05:29So all of those three last stocks, of course, are on sell signals at the moment.
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00:05:34That's the only reason I'm short the stocks.
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00:05:36I don't hate them. I don't think they're going bankrupt.
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00:05:38I have no idea what their next quarterly earnings are going to be like.
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00:05:42But right now they're on sell signals and that is why I'm short those stocks.
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00:05:46So there's some of Warren Buffett's top holdings.
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00:05:49Okay, folks, that is all for today's presentation.
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00:05:53It is a risk off situation. Of course.
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00:05:56We've been talking about that over and over again.
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00:05:58We need the technology stocks to start to lead.
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00:06:01We need some of the small caps to start to
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00:06:02lead before any major changes are going to happen.
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00:06:06In the overall tone of the stock market,
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00:06:08we have inflation numbers coming out at 830.
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00:06:10The market is going to overreact to those.
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00:06:13Of course the real numbers are going to come out next week when the Fed has their
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00:06:16meeting and everybody thinks that they're going to add another 50 basis points.
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00:06:21Have a great day on Friday, folks.
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00:06:23Enjoy your weekend.
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00:06:24Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.