Stock Market Timing Television - 05022023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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theuptrend.com with a quick two minute market update.
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In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board.
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So so far it looks like we're gonna see
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some selling at the open on Tuesday morning.
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Well, yesterday the story of First Republic came to an end.
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And so that stock is no longer in play.
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Even with it coming off the board, we saw
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the Regional Bank stocks continue to trade lower, down nearly 3% on the day.
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Really no upward or downward trend here for the past month and a half.
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Still waiting for something new to happen.
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At the same time that First Republic went
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off the board, JPMorgan picked up some of their assets and it popped yesterday.
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That helped put a bid into the DOW and the
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S&P 500, but it reversed going into the close.
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So this is certainly not something I would want to chase up here.
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There's nothing low risk about this.
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And then the DOW itself generated a
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bearish reversal signal on Monday, did not close below the previous day's low.
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So it's still a negative signal, but not that bad.
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And we had a similar signal for the
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Canadian market, which hit a new high yesterday before pulling back again.
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Did not close below the previous day's low.
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There's the bearish reversal signal.
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These are one day events.
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They still need to be confirmed.
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You can see that we had several bearish
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reversal signals over here go off, but the market still continued to move higher.
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This one marked the top for this particular move.
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This one the market waved off and continued to move higher.
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So one day events still need to be
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confirmed, and they would be confirmed on Tuesday with a lower close.
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Looking at the bond market, we had a big
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move in the bonds yesterday ahead of the Fed meeting, which starts today.
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So today probably won't be that volatile a day.
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We expect volatility to expand
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dramatically after 02:00 P.m. Wednesday afternoon.
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And of course, if bond prices are going
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down, bond yields are going up, and we saw that across the board on Monday.
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Now, the VIX made a new low yesterday before closing slightly higher on the day,
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looking for a close on Tuesday above 18.38 to give us a new buy signal.
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That, of course, would be negative for stocks.
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Now, the stock market is on a timetable, whether you're looking at quarterly
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earnings or you're looking at the market's reaction to Fed meetings.
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If we want to project into the future to
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see when we could see our next low risk buying opportunity, if you take a
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measurement from the Pressure Zone that happened in the fall to the pressure zone
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that happened around Christmas, and then add that projection out, that takes you
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into the pressure zone that happened in March.
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And then if we measure, take the exact
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same distance and add that that takes us into early June.
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So that's probably where we're going to
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see the next low risk buying opportunity start to form.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Should be a fairly quiet day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.