Stock Market Outlook 03082024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com. In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures are slightly below fair value.

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Commodities are mixed with crude oil

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lower, while gold is up $10 in the pre-market.

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Now, that being said, we do have payroll numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning,

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and they could certainly change the direction of the market.

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Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal.

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Options traders are obviously concerned.

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There are a lot of stocks not doing well at the same time.

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There are a lot of stocks that are very overpriced at the moment.

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So options traders a little concerned.

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Looking at the week so far, we've got the Dow down three quarters of a %.

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We've got the S&P 500 up a little over a third of a %.

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The Nasdaq is basically unchanged for the week.

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The TSX, on the other hand, is up on the

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week, and that has a lot to do with the crude oil or energy and gold stocks.

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Looking at the TSX Global Gold Index, it is up over seven % so far this week.

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So if we close at this level, that'll give us a new weekly buy signal.

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Now, at the same time, this is still a very bearish chart.

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We recently made a lower high and a lower low.

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So the first thing that has to happen here is a breakout above that downtrend line.

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And then the next target, of course, would be the high from late 2023.

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Then looking at semiconductors, they're up nearly 5% on the week.

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And that, of course, is what's really in the news at the moment.

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Now, the stock I get asked about the most

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is still Apple, and Apple is still on a sell signal.

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We're still short Apple.

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That hasn't changed.

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We're holding the 168. 75 level.

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We closed at 169 even yesterday.

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If we break down from here, our next target is 162.

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50. If you're long puts or if you're short

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Apple, hopefully you've locked in some profits here.

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You don't have to completely buy back your

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or sell all your puts, but you should lock in some profits.

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Of course, what we're going to be looking

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for first is a close above the previous day's high.

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That hasn't happened yet.

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Then the second thing that's going to have to happen before we start becoming bullish

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on the stock is we need to start trading above the open gap.

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And of course, we're not going to do that on Friday morning.

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The next most popular stock on our site at

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the moment is NVIDIA, and it's coming up to the 937.

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50 level.

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It's trading higher in the pre-market this morning, and I'm sure traders want to take

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it up to the $1,000 level, which, of course, is a big round number.

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The pros look like they're still content

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to be buyers here, and they have total control.

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Compared that to Apple, where they don't have any control at the moment and are not

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interested in taking control on Friday morning.

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Then we have Tesla.

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And Tesla, we were projecting higher prices here, but that open gap has held

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the market in check, and we've come back down to the previous lows.

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We're currently holding the 171. 88 level.

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We haven't broken that yet.

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If we do, then 156.

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25 would be our next target to the downside.

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Looking up on Friday, yesterday was an

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inside day, so we did not close above the previous day's high.

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Again, that would be the first thing that

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we would look for before we start thinking about buying Tesla.

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Now, moving into the Canadian market, the most popular stock is Shopify.

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Still short Shopify.

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We've got conflicting signals here.

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We are projecting lower prices, but we do have a pressure zone forming,

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so we would certainly take a buy signal if one were to show up.

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You can see we're holding the $100 level.

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We closed at $ 101.

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40 yesterday.

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I got down as low as $98. 80.

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And of course, these are numbers off the TSX.

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Now, if we start breaking down from here, 87.

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50 is our next mathematical target.

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But then, of course, we have the low from right at the start 2024 at $94.

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32.

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Looking up on Friday, and it is

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mathematically possible to get a buy signal on Friday with a close above $104.

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65. If that doesn't happen on Friday, of

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course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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We did not close above the previous day's high yesterday.

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It came pretty close to it, but did not close above the previous day's high.

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Now, speaking of technology stocks, the

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best performing technology stock in Canada is Celesta a year today.

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It is up over 64%.

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You can see how investors bought the dips off the FlyPaper channel.

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And look at that huge spread.

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So it would be incredibly risky to buy it up at these levels here.

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Of course, over time, when we get a pullback, then you could consider buying

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it, but I would certainly not want to jump in to Celestica at this time.

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You can see, yesterday, we put in a higher high.

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We closed slightly lower on the day.

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We did not close above the previous It

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stays low, so not overly concerned just yet.

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Now, on a month to date basis, the best

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performing Canadian stock on the TSX is Seabridge Gold.

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It's up over 34%.

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You can see we're well off the right side channel No concern about a sell signal on

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Friday, but there is a concern about taking money off the table.

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Now, we came up to the previous high from December, broke through that, headed up.

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Our next target was 13. 67.

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If you haven't already locked in some

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profits, it would be a good thing to do so.

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You don't have to liquidate a position.

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Just take a chunk of your position and lock in those profits.

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Let's continue on and take a look at the miners.

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Copper was up nicely yesterday, making a new high for this move.

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Copper miners also making a new high for

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this move, pulling back off the high, running up to the December, pretty close

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to the December highs before pulling back, but still looking very strong there.

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Then looking at the GLD, we moved up to the $200 level.

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We're trading slightly above that in the pre-market on Friday morning.

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Then looking at gold stocks on the TSX or in New York, there's the Gold miners ETF,

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there's the junior gold miners all doing well at the moment.

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Then looking at the Silver ETF, the SLV, it made a new high for this move.

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We're coming up to the December highs right now.

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It'll be interesting to see if we can break through them.

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You can see that the December highs did not hit our mathematical target of $22.

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66.

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And then looking at the silver miners,

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the stocks themselves up a little over 2% on Thursday.

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Then let's finish off looking at the energy sector.

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We had crude oil pulled back.

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The USO was down slightly yesterday.

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Closed below 73.

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18 would give us a sell signal on Friday.

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That would join the gasoline already on a

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sell signal, and natural gas, which unfortunately rolled over on Thursday.

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It back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.

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Looking at energy stocks on the TSX, you

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can see we closed at the previous day's low after making a new high on Wednesday,

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and US energy stocks made a new high on Thursday for this move.

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So things still looking pretty bullish for stocks in the commodity sectors.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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I'm doing this ahead of those payroll numbers, which could certainly change the

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direction of the market after they come out at 8:30 this morning.

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Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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