Morning Market Outlook 11092023

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Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the

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uptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are flat.

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Commodities are mixed with crude oil

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slightly higher, while gold is down another $5 in the pre market.

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Now, we do have employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning in the US, and

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that could certainly change the direction of the market on Thursday morning.

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Well, the VIX continued move lower yesterday, down for its 8th day in a row.

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And, of course, when the VIX is falling,

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that is supportive for higher stock prices.

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When the VIX started to fall, we knew that

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the crash watch was coming to an end, so we are expecting higher prices here.

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Unfortunately, the market has moved up to

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resistance, and that resistance has held us in check.

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Now, when a market goes from being

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oversold to overbought, one of the ways that you can relieve that overbought

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condition is not only by pulling back, but also by treading water.

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And so we might be relieving that

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overbought condition right now by treading water up here at the 437.

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50 level.

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Now, we've got an open gap just above that level, up at 438.

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43. We got as high yesterday as 438.09.

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And so we're less than $0.50 away from hitting and filling that open gap.

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And then we'll have to see what the market does next.

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Looking at what's working.

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Well, the bonds have been moving up over the past few days, and that's put downward

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pressure on bond yields, and that's helped push the market higher.

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And if we look at the S&P 500, we're up there at the 437 50 level.

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If we look at the equal weighted S&P 500,

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you'll see we haven't been performing as well.

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And of course, that's those big cap tech

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stocks that are in the Nasdaq 100 that are also in the S&P 500.

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Now, if they're equally weighted, they don't have as much impact on the market.

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But if they're weighted based on their

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market cap, of course, they're helping move the Nasdaq higher and the S&P 500.

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And there's the Nasdaq moving up to resistance at 375 on the triple Q's.

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And we'll have to see if we can get out above that.

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Of course, the Nasdaq is once again being

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fueled by those magnificent seven stocks, which are all on buy signals.

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Alphabet not doing well right now compared

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to Amazon, which is heading up to the not only it's way past the October highs.

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We're heading towards the September highs for Amazon.

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Apple's pushed through the October highs.

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And again we're looking to see if not only

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can we make a higher high, but can we make a higher low.

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And that chapter has not started yet.

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Now Meta's still on a buy signal here.

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Not a lot of upward momentum.

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We had a big update and then we've been crawling higher ever since.

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Again heading towards those October highs.

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There's Microsoft hitting a new high yesterday and that is making up the

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majority of the gains for the Nasdaq at the moment.

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And then we've got Nvidia.

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Nvidia is still struggling to hit the

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October highs but still on a buy signal, still continuing to edge higher.

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And the dog of the magnificent seven at the moment is Tesla.

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Tesla has been treading water here.

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Close below 210.

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88 would give us a sell signal on Thursday.

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We're struggling here. We're stuck to the 218.

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75 level.

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There's an open gap there that could

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potentially act as a magnet and an area of resistance.

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If we can take out that gap, then 250 does come into play.

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But right now Tesla is struggling to move higher, moving on to the Canadian market.

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The TSX has been struggling over the past couple of days.

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That has a lot to do with commodities.

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There's crude oil continuing to move lower on Wednesday, pulling down energy stocks

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which have come down to their recent lows in October.

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And we're looking at the iShares for the TSX Energy sector, then looking at gold.

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It's a second day of a sell signal for the

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price of gold, helping gold stocks move lower again.

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We're looking at the ishares for the Gold sector.

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Of course, the other side of these trades

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is to play the bear ETFs and watch them go up as the market falls.

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Now Financials are holding up still.

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They're trading Water here up at resistance at 42.

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97 on the IShares ETF.

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And the best performing financial over the

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past week has been Nuvei, which is up over 30% over the last five trading days.

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Then we've got Fairfax holding up fairly well up here.

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Of course, if you're going to own one

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Canadian stock, it's probably going to be Fairfax.

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And then let's finish off today's

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presentation looking at the bull boards for the industrial sector.

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And industrial is on a buy signal right now.

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The best performing industrial right now is Bombardier which has moved up nicely

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over the past week, right up to the convergence of the 102 hundred day moving

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average and the top of the fly paper channel.

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So this could be the end of this move for Bombardier.

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Hopefully you've locked in some profits after this nice up move, and I wouldn't

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completely liquidate a position, but the ods of us continuing to move

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higher from here have diminished quite a bit over the past couple of days.

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We'll just have to see what happens next.

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Moving from the best performing industrial

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over the last week to the worst performing.

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It's Finning International.

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And you can see we continue to make a

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series of lower highs and lower lows with a new low being made on Tuesday.

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Now, moving down the list, we've got Pyrogenesis.

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It's on a buy signal right now, but barely

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close below $0.49 would give us a sell signal on Thursday.

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If we can continue to move up and break

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that downtrend line there, then we could move up into the .70 area.

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But I wouldn't expect more from this stock at this time.

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And then looking at extra is on a buy signal right now.

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There's not a lot of love for the stock at the moment.

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Yes, we were able to generate a buy

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signal, but the pros have not come back to take control.

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So this buy signal may fizzle out fairly quickly.

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You can see there's lots of resistance up at the $1.

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95 level that acted as support back in

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August and September, and it's continuing to act as resistance in November.

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And so here we are at the midpoint between the 1.56 and the 1.95 level.

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We're holding support at 1.76, looking to see if we can break out of that range.

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And then next we're looking at Extract

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Technologies and we're on a sell signal right now that would change on Thursday

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with a close above $0.75. Let's finish off looking at Air Canada,

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and Air Canada looks very similar to a lot of other airline stocks.

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And maybe the falling crude oil prices can help this stock.

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You can see across the bottom here that we tried several times to start a new rally.

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We were expecting one here.

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We were expecting one here.

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Both failed and here we are. We've got one.

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We are projecting higher prices up towards $23.

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But projections only know what they know and they don't know what they don't know.

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So it's just a guide.

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Right now, the pros have taken control of Air Canada.

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The problem is we're stuck at 18.75 as resistance.

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That was support back here in September into early October.

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And so if we can get over that, then look, two lines up to 21.88.

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That would certainly be a reasonable

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target to the upside and 21.88 would take us up over the fly paper channel.

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So there is resistance.

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But there is a lot of opportunity here.

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If crude oil prices can continue to move lower.

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And we're currently on a buy signal that would change on Thursday with a close

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below $17.06. And so far, we're not expecting that to happen on Thursday.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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