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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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00:00:06In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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00:00:09Stock index futures trading right around fair value.
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00:00:12There's a little bit into the technology sector.
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00:00:15Once again, commodities are mixed with
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00:00:17gold down while crude oil is slightly higher on Wednesday morning.
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00:00:22Let's start off this morning with a little housekeeping.
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00:00:25On Thursday, I'm going to be traveling, so
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00:00:27I'm not going to be around in the morning to do a video.
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00:00:30The next time you'll hear my voice is going to be on Friday morning.
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00:00:34Now, yesterday we saw the VIX made in make a new low.
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00:00:38Overall, it was a fairly quiet day for the big cap indices.
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00:00:42For other areas of the market, it was a
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00:00:44little more exciting, but there's the VIX making a new low.
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00:00:47Looking for a close on Wednesday above
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00:00:50$17.64. We also saw the major VIX ETFs also make new lows yesterday.
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00:00:56Nobody's trying to front run a big move up in the VIX at the moment.
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00:01:01Then looking at the DOW, very quiet yesterday, just up a couple of pennies.
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00:01:07Similar situation for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq.
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00:01:12The Nasdaq was slightly lower yesterday, no big deal.
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00:01:15Nobody's overly concerned about that move.
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00:01:17Where we did see money flow was into the midcap, small caps and microcap stocks on
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00:01:23Wednesdays, and that was true on both sides of the border.
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00:01:27Now, the i shares for the TSX 60 closed
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00:01:29above the upper channel line once again, still having trouble with that open gap.
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00:01:33Then when we look at the midcap, small caps and microcap stocks, they all moved
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00:01:38up yesterday, not at the same rate that they did in the US, but they did move up.
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00:01:42And it's nice to see the market focus on other stocks besides those big cap stocks.
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00:01:49Now, we've talked about the seasonalities
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00:01:51of the market many times over the past month.
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00:01:55If we go back to 2022, you can see the S&P
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00:01:58500 came into June already on a buy signal and then rolled over right about now.
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00:02:04That's also true for the Nasdaq and for the iS shares for the TSX 60.
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00:02:09So all of them recovered quickly but then continued to make a lower low.
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00:02:16So that's what happened in June of 2022.
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00:02:19Now, yesterday, the big winner in North
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00:02:21America was regional banks, and that helped US banks overall move up yesterday.
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00:02:27Comerica was the big winner on the S&P 500.
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00:02:31Fifth Third was also up at the top of the winners list as was Zion.
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00:02:36So the regional banks are still making a comeback here.
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00:02:40Then looking at Canadian financials, they were up on the day.
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00:02:43Canadian banks were up on the day as well, but no change in trend.
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00:02:48Now, 1 Canadian Bank we should be looking at is Bank of Montreal.
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00:02:52It is back on a buy signal.
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00:02:54It held previous support at 112.50
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00:02:59and now it's starting to move back up on a buy signal right now.
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00:03:02The major area resistance, well, 118.75 and the 120 level certainly is a short
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00:03:10term resistance, but then you can move up to the 121.88 level and there's lots of
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00:03:15resistance up there from the month of April.
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00:03:18Not a lot of space to move here, but it
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00:03:21would be an incredibly bullish sign if the Bank of Montreal were able to take out the
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00:03:26resistance from back in April up there at 12188.
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00:03:31Now, looking at what worked yesterday on
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00:03:33the Canadian market, it was InfoTech, and that had a lot to do with Shopify, which
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00:03:38had a big update and is back on a buy signal.
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00:03:41Now it's important to note that we're coming up to resistance here.
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00:03:4587.50 is our next mathematical target.
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00:03:48The high last month was 87.53. So we're getting pretty close to that level.
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00:03:54If we can take that out, then the $100 would certainly come into play.
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00:03:59Now, the only problem here is, of course, we're currently ranked at 10.
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00:04:02So this is a high risk trade.
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00:04:05We look for low risk opportunities, and
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00:04:07you can see a couple of them there where we did see some selling that brought us
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00:04:12down to the bottom of the panic zones, and then a pressure zone was forming.
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00:04:16That tells us that a lot of the downward pressure has already left the market.
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00:04:21So people that hate the stock, that want
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00:04:23to unload the stock, probably have already done so.
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00:04:26We're not seeing that situation develop right now.
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00:04:30We did have a very small pullback.
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00:04:32It wasn't to the bottom of the panic zones.
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00:04:34No pressure zone was formed.
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00:04:36So yes, we do have a new buy signal, but it is a high risk buy signal.
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00:04:40Now note that we gapped higher and the top
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00:04:45of that gap was up at a high from back at the start of the year.
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00:04:50And so that's a major area of potential support.
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00:04:53If that, of course, breaks on the way back
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00:04:55down, then we wouldn't be surprised to see a move down into the lower $60 area.
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00:05:02And of course, you see the bottom of the open gap there around $65.
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00:05:05That would certainly be a reasonable target to the downside.
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00:05:10In the US, it was all about financials.
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00:05:12We've talked about what worked yesterday, what didn't work.
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00:05:15Well, a couple of stocks headed lower yesterday in the financial sector, and one
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00:05:20of them is the CME group, which is a stock that I'm currently long.
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00:05:25I wasn't overly excited about this opportunity.
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00:05:29I really thought it was part of the blow off top from last week.
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00:05:33But yeah, we popped and you can see that we've started to reverse.
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00:05:37We haven't generated a sell signal.
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00:05:40We're still trading above the upper
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00:05:41channel line, so no reason to take action on Wednesday morning.
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00:05:46Let's finish off looking at commodities.
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00:05:48And we saw crude oil trade in the channel yesterday.
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00:05:51It's up a little in the pre market this
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00:05:54morning, not enough to give us a buy signal.
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00:05:56Then looking at natural gas.
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00:05:58Natural gas was higher yesterday, still trading below the lower channel line.
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00:06:02Then looking at copper.
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00:06:04Copper had an inside day yesterday,
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00:06:06closing just a little tiny bit higher on the day.
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00:06:11Then looking at gold.
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00:06:12Gold is still in the channel looking for a
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00:06:15breakout above 1995 to give us a buy signal.
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00:06:19And of course, there's psychological resistance at the $2,000 level.
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00:06:24And then silver is still on a buy signal trading in the channel yesterday.
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00:06:28It closed below 23.33 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday.
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00:06:32And then last up, unfortunately for
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00:06:34barbecue season, live cattle continued to move higher.
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00:06:39So that, of course, is going to put pressure on meat in the grocery store.
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00:06:44Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:06:46Looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open on Wednesday morning.
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00:06:50Again, I won't be in on Thursday.
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00:06:52The next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.