Stock Market Timing Television - 06072023

en-us French Canadian Arabic Chinese German Hindi Japanese Korean Spanish

How was the video ?

Description

Auto Scroll

00:00:00

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
00:00:03

It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
00:00:06

In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet.
00:00:09

Stock index futures trading right around fair value.
00:00:12

There's a little bit into the technology sector.
00:00:15

Once again, commodities are mixed with
00:00:17

gold down while crude oil is slightly higher on Wednesday morning.
00:00:22

Let's start off this morning with a little housekeeping.
00:00:25

On Thursday, I'm going to be traveling, so
00:00:27

I'm not going to be around in the morning to do a video.
00:00:30

The next time you'll hear my voice is going to be on Friday morning.
00:00:34

Now, yesterday we saw the VIX made in make a new low.
00:00:38

Overall, it was a fairly quiet day for the big cap indices.
00:00:42

For other areas of the market, it was a
00:00:44

little more exciting, but there's the VIX making a new low.
00:00:47

Looking for a close on Wednesday above
00:00:50

$17.64. We also saw the major VIX ETFs also make new lows yesterday.
00:00:56

Nobody's trying to front run a big move up in the VIX at the moment.
00:01:01

Then looking at the DOW, very quiet yesterday, just up a couple of pennies.
00:01:07

Similar situation for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq.
00:01:12

The Nasdaq was slightly lower yesterday, no big deal.
00:01:15

Nobody's overly concerned about that move.
00:01:17

Where we did see money flow was into the midcap, small caps and microcap stocks on
00:01:23

Wednesdays, and that was true on both sides of the border.
00:01:27

Now, the i shares for the TSX 60 closed
00:01:29

above the upper channel line once again, still having trouble with that open gap.
00:01:33

Then when we look at the midcap, small caps and microcap stocks, they all moved
00:01:38

up yesterday, not at the same rate that they did in the US, but they did move up.
00:01:42

And it's nice to see the market focus on other stocks besides those big cap stocks.
00:01:49

Now, we've talked about the seasonalities
00:01:51

of the market many times over the past month.
00:01:55

If we go back to 2022, you can see the S&P
00:01:58

500 came into June already on a buy signal and then rolled over right about now.
00:02:04

That's also true for the Nasdaq and for the iS shares for the TSX 60.
00:02:09

So all of them recovered quickly but then continued to make a lower low.
00:02:16

So that's what happened in June of 2022.
00:02:19

Now, yesterday, the big winner in North
00:02:21

America was regional banks, and that helped US banks overall move up yesterday.
00:02:27

Comerica was the big winner on the S&P 500.
00:02:31

Fifth Third was also up at the top of the winners list as was Zion.
00:02:36

So the regional banks are still making a comeback here.
00:02:40

Then looking at Canadian financials, they were up on the day.
00:02:43

Canadian banks were up on the day as well, but no change in trend.
00:02:48

Now, 1 Canadian Bank we should be looking at is Bank of Montreal.
00:02:52

It is back on a buy signal.
00:02:54

It held previous support at 112.50
00:02:59

and now it's starting to move back up on a buy signal right now.
00:03:02

The major area resistance, well, 118.75 and the 120 level certainly is a short
00:03:10

term resistance, but then you can move up to the 121.88 level and there's lots of
00:03:15

resistance up there from the month of April.
00:03:18

Not a lot of space to move here, but it
00:03:21

would be an incredibly bullish sign if the Bank of Montreal were able to take out the
00:03:26

resistance from back in April up there at 12188.
00:03:31

Now, looking at what worked yesterday on
00:03:33

the Canadian market, it was InfoTech, and that had a lot to do with Shopify, which
00:03:38

had a big update and is back on a buy signal.
00:03:41

Now it's important to note that we're coming up to resistance here.
00:03:45

87.50 is our next mathematical target.
00:03:48

The high last month was 87.53. So we're getting pretty close to that level.
00:03:54

If we can take that out, then the $100 would certainly come into play.
00:03:59

Now, the only problem here is, of course, we're currently ranked at 10.
00:04:02

So this is a high risk trade.
00:04:05

We look for low risk opportunities, and
00:04:07

you can see a couple of them there where we did see some selling that brought us
00:04:12

down to the bottom of the panic zones, and then a pressure zone was forming.
00:04:16

That tells us that a lot of the downward pressure has already left the market.
00:04:21

So people that hate the stock, that want
00:04:23

to unload the stock, probably have already done so.
00:04:26

We're not seeing that situation develop right now.
00:04:30

We did have a very small pullback.
00:04:32

It wasn't to the bottom of the panic zones.
00:04:34

No pressure zone was formed.
00:04:36

So yes, we do have a new buy signal, but it is a high risk buy signal.
00:04:40

Now note that we gapped higher and the top
00:04:45

of that gap was up at a high from back at the start of the year.
00:04:50

And so that's a major area of potential support.
00:04:53

If that, of course, breaks on the way back
00:04:55

down, then we wouldn't be surprised to see a move down into the lower $60 area.
00:05:02

And of course, you see the bottom of the open gap there around $65.
00:05:05

That would certainly be a reasonable target to the downside.
00:05:10

In the US, it was all about financials.
00:05:12

We've talked about what worked yesterday, what didn't work.
00:05:15

Well, a couple of stocks headed lower yesterday in the financial sector, and one
00:05:20

of them is the CME group, which is a stock that I'm currently long.
00:05:25

I wasn't overly excited about this opportunity.
00:05:29

I really thought it was part of the blow off top from last week.
00:05:33

But yeah, we popped and you can see that we've started to reverse.
00:05:37

We haven't generated a sell signal.
00:05:40

We're still trading above the upper
00:05:41

channel line, so no reason to take action on Wednesday morning.
00:05:46

Let's finish off looking at commodities.
00:05:48

And we saw crude oil trade in the channel yesterday.
00:05:51

It's up a little in the pre market this
00:05:54

morning, not enough to give us a buy signal.
00:05:56

Then looking at natural gas.
00:05:58

Natural gas was higher yesterday, still trading below the lower channel line.
00:06:02

Then looking at copper.
00:06:04

Copper had an inside day yesterday,
00:06:06

closing just a little tiny bit higher on the day.
00:06:11

Then looking at gold.
00:06:12

Gold is still in the channel looking for a
00:06:15

breakout above 1995 to give us a buy signal.
00:06:19

And of course, there's psychological resistance at the $2,000 level.
00:06:24

And then silver is still on a buy signal trading in the channel yesterday.
00:06:28

It closed below 23.33 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday.
00:06:32

And then last up, unfortunately for
00:06:34

barbecue season, live cattle continued to move higher.
00:06:39

So that, of course, is going to put pressure on meat in the grocery store.
00:06:44

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
00:06:46

Looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open on Wednesday morning.
00:06:50

Again, I won't be in on Thursday.
00:06:52

The next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Transcription