Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 06122023

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Good morning everyone and welcome to Monday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this
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morning, stock index futures are above fair value, commodities are mixed with
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gold slightly higher, while crude oil is lower in the pre market on Monday morning.
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Now, I don't usually do the weekend video on Monday morning, but we've had a family
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medical emergency last week and unfortunately it is not local.
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So I've had to travel a bit over the past few days and it's still an emergency.
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We're still dealing with it, so I'm not sure how many videos I'll be able to do
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this week, but we'll just see how that works out.
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Now this week could turn out to be a volatile week.
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We've got lots of economic numbers coming out.
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We've also got the Fed meeting, so the
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market will be on guard for whatever the Fed does this week.
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Starting off looking at the VIX.
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The VIX made a new low last week, so
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options traders are still not stressed about anything that's going on.
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Things would change this week if the VIX
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were to close above $19.98 this coming Friday.
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Now, coming into Monday's trading action, looking at the daily chart of the VIX, you
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can see we're looking for a close on Monday above 16.22. Looking at a weekly
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chart of the S and P 500, we closed up just under half a percent.
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So very quiet week last week.
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Looking at the S&P 500 on the daily chart, we're stuck at 429.
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69 and we closed just above that on Friday.
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If we can continue higher from here, then 437.
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50 is both a daily and a weekly target. Now.
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Right now we're still dealing with the
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high from last summer, so we're still trading under that.
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If you look at the high from last week, it was 431.
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99. So we did trade slightly above that level,
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but we haven't been able to close above it just yet.
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So still watching that high from last
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summer to see if the S&P 500 can take it out.
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What worked last week?
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Well, some of the biggest losers of the year were the biggest winners last week.
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We saw retail was the biggest sector in the US, followed by regional banks which
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actually traded above the upper channel line last week.
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So both of those sectors coming back.
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Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, we closed just down $0.15 on the week.
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So again, it was a very quiet week for the Nasdaq.
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We're trying to break out above 359.
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38 on the daily chart.
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If we can do that, then 375 comes into
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play, which is not only a daily, but a weekly price target.
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And as you can see, the Nasdaq has dealt
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with that resistance from the highs from last summer.
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We did that a couple of weeks ago.
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Now we're moving up to the highs from back
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in early 2022, which is just below the 375 level, so we're not near that level yet,
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so we don't really have to focus too much on it.
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Now.
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In the previous couple of weeks it was Nvidia that led the market higher and we
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had a small pullback in Nvidia down 1.42%, so not that big a deal.
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Did not close below the previous week's low this week.
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On the other hand, we're being led higher
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by Tesla, which is up over 14% on the week.
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Our next price target on both the daily and weekly charts is 250.
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We traded just above that at 252.
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42 and then came back down.
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We're still trading below 250 in the pre market this morning.
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Even though we're trading higher, we're still below 250.
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If we can take 250 out, then 281.
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25 would be our next target on the weekly chart.
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And looking at the daily chart for Tesla,
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you can see we gapped higher on Friday, so we're nowhere near the channel lines,
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nowhere near an ultimate sell signal at the moment.
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Hopefully you were able to lock in some profits at 250.
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Looking at the Canadian market, it's not looking very healthy at the moment.
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Not a big sell off.
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Last week we were down just a little over 1%.
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We had an inside week for gold stocks down over 2% on the week.
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Then we had materials down, we had the
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financial sector, we had banks lower, we saw industrials pull back over two and a
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half percent, we had telecom stocks down a little over 1%.
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And then even technology stocks pulled back.
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We saw the technology index pull back a little over half a percent.
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And at the same time a lot of the gains in
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that technology sector are on the back of shopify, which was up 4.64% on the week.
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Didn't break out to a new high just yet, that still could happen.
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Let's finish off looking at commodities
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and we had copper up trading into the channel last week.
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Gold was up on the week, but having an inside week, so no change there.
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A little more strength than silver trading up into the channel and we're still
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looking for close this Friday above 24 91 to give us a buy signal for silver.
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Then we saw pork products move up, while
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we saw pullback in the beef sector with live cattle pulling back.
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So there's certainly a spread trade there to buy pork and sell beef this summer.
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Then looking at cocoa, making a new high
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so could put some pricing pressure on chocolate.
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Then looking at lumber, very quiet week inside week for lumber, no change there.
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Then last up looking at the energy sector, we had crude oil down 1.74% on the week,
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it's down about that much again in the pre market this morning.
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And last up we've got natural gas up on the week 3.78%, but of course that's not a
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lot for natural gas and you can barely notice it on the chart.
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Still trading and closing below the lower channel line.
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Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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Looks like we're going to see a higher open at 930 Monday morning.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is undetermined at the moment.
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Hopefully it'll be Tuesday morning.

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