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00:00:00Hello everyone, and welcome to Wednesday Morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from The UpTrend.com. Well, we're coming up to
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00:00:0708:00 A.M. on the East Coast and stock index futures are above fair value.
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00:00:11The market's rather mixed.
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00:00:12We've got Nvidia up slightly while Tesla is trading lower in the pre market.
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00:00:18Now, yesterday we saw the US dollar index and bond yields continue to move higher.
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00:00:23That's not going to help the stock market over the long term.
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00:00:27Everybody's still watching the big shiny object which is Nvidia.
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00:00:30Nvidia pulled back yesterday after running up and retesting the July high.
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00:00:36We've got earnings coming up for Nvidia
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00:00:38and that is certainly going to add some volatility to the market.
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00:00:41Now, Nvidia is the Apple of 2023 and Apple
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00:00:45is still on a sell signal, so that has not changed.
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00:00:49Now, while everybody's looking at Nvidia
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00:00:51up at all time highs, a lot of the market is looking down sharply at the moment.
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00:00:56And the biggest concern, of course, is the financial sector.
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00:01:00And financials made a new low yesterday.
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00:01:03US banks, US regional banks both made new lows yesterday.
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00:01:07Now when we look at individual symbols,
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00:01:09they're going to look a lot weaker than these charts.
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00:01:12And of course, when you're looking at an
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00:01:14ETF, things are smoothed out because the ETF contains a basket of stocks.
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00:01:19Yesterday I mentioned Goldman Sachs is a
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00:01:21stock that I follow closely and it wasn't looking very healthy.
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00:01:24It actually made a new low on Tuesday.
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00:01:28Then look at Citigroup.
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00:01:29And of course we expect
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00:01:31any of these stocks to try to hold support at recent lows.
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00:01:35So the July low is taken out, the June low is taken out, the May low is taken out.
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00:01:41We're just heading lower at the moment.
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00:01:43There's no major areas of support ahead of us in the short term.
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00:01:48Then looking at the big regional bank
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00:01:50Trust, it's a regional bank holding company and it made a new low yesterday.
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00:01:55New low for Capital One Financial.
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00:01:58Then looking at insurance, the Travelers Group.
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00:02:01And then looking at Charles Schwab.
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00:02:03Now Charles Schwab came down to fill the open gap and tried to find support there
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00:02:08for a couple of days, and then yesterday that support broke.
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00:02:11So looking for lower prices here, then
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00:02:14looking at the Canadian side, not looking any healthier here.
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00:02:18There's the TSX Financials, TSX Banks
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00:02:21looking to try to find some area of support here.
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00:02:25When we look at the bank of Montreal,
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00:02:27we're right down at the early June, late May lows.
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00:02:32Then looking at Bank of Nova Scotia, which on the way up, when these banks were
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00:02:36rallying, the Bank of Nova Scotia looked the weakest and now it's looking the
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00:02:41weakest on the way back down, breaking down through the June lows, we've got the
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00:02:46Royal Bank heading down towards the May lows.
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00:02:48It had a nice run up.
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00:02:49Now it's having a great rundown.
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00:02:51And the TD Bank, which looked the
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00:02:53strongest on the way up, is still holding up fairly well.
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00:02:57Now, speaking of insurance companies,
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00:02:59we've got Manulife and SunLife looking fairly weak.
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00:03:02Manulife's trying to find footing at the June lows.
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00:03:06SunLife said goodbye to those June lows a
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00:03:09long time ago and heading down to see if we can hold support at the May lows.
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00:03:14Then what didn't work?
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00:03:15Well, Nuvia is the biggest loser in the
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00:03:18Canadian financial sector, down, I think, 47% in the last month.
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00:03:22What's working? Well, the Berkshire Hathaway equivalent in
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00:03:25Canada, Fairfax, is positive for the month of August and it was up yesterday.
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00:03:30Now, a close below yesterday's low would generate a new sell signal for Fairfax.
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00:03:37Then looking at the VIX, and the VIX is
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00:03:39still on a buy signal here trading in the channel.
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00:03:42If we want the stock market overall to
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00:03:45start making lower lows, we need the VIX to break out above the top of the range
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00:03:51right now, which is right at the 200 day moving average.
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00:03:54Now, looking at the major index ETFs that
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00:03:56we fall, they're all on sell signals right now.
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00:03:59We've got the Ishares for the TSX 60 making a new closing low yesterday.
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00:04:05The Dow had an inside day on Tuesday.
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00:04:08SP 500 traded up into the Channel before reversing, as did the Nasdaq.
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00:04:13So the Nasdaq is the closest to generating a buy signal on Wednesday.
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00:04:17And of course, depending on what Nvidia does, that could certainly happen.
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00:04:23It could also happen for semiconductors,
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00:04:26which also moved up into the Channel yesterday and then pulled back.
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00:04:30Looking at the commodity world, we saw the price of gold move up yesterday, just $3,
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00:04:36and the price of silver continued to move higher.
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00:04:39Now, that hasn't really helped silver
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00:04:41stocks, they were up yesterday, but no new trend.
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00:04:44No new trend for the XGD and no new trend for the GDX so far.
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00:04:50Then looking at the energy sector, we had crude oil pullback slightly.
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00:04:53We've got natural gas making a new low for this particular move.
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00:04:58And we saw Canadian energy stocks pull back still on a buy signal, while US
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00:05:03energy stocks are still on a sell signal from five days ago.
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00:05:08And let's finish off today's presentation looking at the world of bitcoin.
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00:05:12Bitcoin made a new closing low for this move yesterday, as did Ethereum.
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00:05:16And then all the bitcoin related stocks are still on sell signals.
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00:05:20No change in trend for bit farms, for
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00:05:23Coinbase, for Hive, for Hut 8, or for Marathon.
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00:05:28No changes of trend at all.
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00:05:30And still looking very weak.
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00:05:32And they all look like they're going to head lower from here.
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00:05:35Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:05:38The world awaits Nvidia and Jackson Hole
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00:05:42Nvidia is certainly going to add some volatility to the market.
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00:05:45Whether it's going to change the overall direction of the market.
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00:05:48I'm not sure of the damage that higher
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00:05:52yields and higher interest rates are doing on many sectors of the market is probably
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00:05:58not going to be undone by one earnings report.
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00:06:01And you can certainly see how broad the damage is from financials to the
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00:06:06cryptocurrency market, they're all being hit at the moment.
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00:06:10Enjoy the rest of your Wednesday.
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00:06:11Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.