Stock Market Outlook 10102023

en-us French Canadian Arabic Chinese German Hindi Japanese Korean Spanish

How was the video ?

Description

Auto Scroll

00:00:00

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
00:00:03

It's Stephen Whiteside here from The
00:00:04

UpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
00:00:09

We don't have any major economic news coming out this morning.
00:00:12

Stock index futures are trading slightly above fair value, while commodities are
00:00:16

pulling back a bit in the pre market on Tuesday morning.
00:00:21

Now, if you're with us, yesterday morning I mentioned the fact that the stock market
00:00:25

was trading without adult supervision as the bond market was closed on Monday.
00:00:31

And we're probably going to see some overreactions.
00:00:33

And I wouldn't take anything that happened on Monday too seriously.
00:00:37

We saw money go back into defense stocks,
00:00:40

so that was certainly a knee jerk reaction.
00:00:43

As you can see, up until yesterday, they weren't doing very well.
00:00:46

We saw a big pop in Northrop Grumman that was the biggest winner on the S&P 500,
00:00:52

followed by Lockheed and then General Dynamics.
00:00:55

All of them popped.
00:00:56

I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled back over the next few days.
00:01:00

That's also true with commodities.
00:01:03

We made a lower low for crude oil on Friday and then a big pop on Monday.
00:01:07

And we saw a big pop in energy stocks that also made a new low on Friday.
00:01:12

We also saw the price of gold and the price of silver shoot up on Monday.
00:01:16

We saw gold and silver stocks also move up.
00:01:19

Looking at the GDX, you can see we traded up to the bottom of that open gap once
00:01:23

again, and it's still acting as resistance.
00:01:26

Now, the Canadian market will probably
00:01:28

play catch up at the open on Tuesday morning to what happened in the US.
00:01:33

Yesterday, but I wouldn't be surprised if
00:01:35

the commodity stocks and defense related stocks pulled back over the next few days.
00:01:41

Now the VIX had a wild day yesterday, ended up being an inside day.
00:01:44

So we traded above the upper channel line,
00:01:47

but did not take out Friday's high, and we pulled back and closed in the channel.
00:01:51

So on Tuesday, we're looking for a close
00:01:54

below $17.07 to tell us that the option market is not as fearful as it has been
00:02:00

recently and that would be supportive for higher stock prices.
00:02:05

Looking at the major stock market index ETFs, looking at the Ishares for the TSX
00:02:09

60, they traded up to the lower channel line on Friday.
00:02:13

So on Tuesday, we're looking for a close above 29 67.
00:02:17

Now, when we look at the index itself, it
00:02:19

traded up close to the lower channel line on Friday.
00:02:22

It is trading higher by $12.20 in the pre market this morning.
00:02:27

So looking at the futures contract for the TSX 60, which is not the same as the
00:02:33

Ishares for the TSX 60, we're trading up in the channel at the moment.
00:02:38

So not enough to give us a buy signal, but
00:02:39

certainly enough to get us back in the channel on Tuesday morning.
00:02:44

Now, the Dow traded up to the upper
00:02:47

channel line any higher close on Tuesday would give us a buy signal, which would
00:02:51

join the S&P 500, which is now back on a buy signal as of Monday's close, joining
00:02:57

the Nasdaq which generated a buy signal on Friday.
00:03:01

And of course, we've been watching those big cap tech stocks, which are mostly back
00:03:05

on buy signals right now, once again, leading the market higher.
00:03:09

Now, Semiconductors had a fairly quiet and
00:03:11

an inside day on Monday, even though we've got Nvidia on a buy signal right now.
00:03:16

So looking at those big cap technology
00:03:19

stocks, we saw Alphabet make a new high for this move, moving right back up to the
00:03:25

high from September and it looks like it wants to take that out on Tuesday.
00:03:30

No joy for Amazon just yet.
00:03:32

We're looking for a close above 129.44 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.
00:03:36

Apple, third day of a buy signal for Apple.
00:03:39

And then we saw Meta continue to move
00:03:42

higher, so it's taking a run at those highs from late July.
00:03:46

We've got Microsoft on its second day of a buy signal, so no change in trend there.
00:03:52

Inside day for nvidia on Monday.
00:03:55

And then we saw shopify trading in New York on Monday.
00:03:58

Also had an inside day.
00:04:00

We're looking for a close on Tuesday above
00:04:02

$54.35. And we also saw Tesla putting in an inside day on Monday.
00:04:09

Let's finish off today's presentation.
00:04:11

Taking a look at what didn't work on
00:04:13

Monday and anything travel related did not work on Monday.
00:04:17

There's the Jets ETF.
00:04:19

Down over two and a half percent, making a new low.
00:04:22

The biggest loser on the S&P 500 on Monday was United Airlines.
00:04:26

Again, we're making a new low here, down nearly 5% on the day.
00:04:31

There's Delta Airlines making a new low.
00:04:34

A new low for Carnival Cruises.
00:04:36

A new low for American Airlines.
00:04:39

Royal Caribbean did not make a new low, but ended the day down nearly 3%.
00:04:44

So anything travel related did not work on Monday.
00:04:47

Anything military related did work on Monday.
00:04:51

Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
00:04:54

Have a great day.
00:04:55

Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Transcription