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00:00:00Good morning everyone and welcome to
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00:00:02Thursday morning and the first day of December in the Premarket.
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00:00:06This morning at the time that I'm making
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00:00:08this video, stock index futures are slightly below fair value while
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00:00:12commodities are trading higher in the Premarket on Thursday morning.
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00:00:17Well, Wednesday turned out to be rather
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00:00:19exciting day in response to yesterday's activity.
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00:00:22We don't want to get over excited.
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00:00:24We are closer to the end than we are to the beginning of anything new.
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00:00:29Of course, at the end of the month, automatic money hits the market.
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00:00:33Traders don't usually like to trade
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00:00:34against that, so the month end usually has a bullish bias to it.
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00:00:39Yesterday was a Fed day, not a typical Fed
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00:00:42day, but Chairman Powell was out there speaking.
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00:00:44We were expecting Volatility to expand.
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00:00:46It could have gone up, it could have gone down yesterday it went up.
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00:00:50That doesn't mean it's the start of anything new.
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00:00:52It just tells us that too many people were on the wrong side of the short term trade
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00:00:57yesterday and had to cover their positions.
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00:01:00And so we need to see some evidence that
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00:01:03new money is coming back into the market to continue this move higher from here.
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00:01:09And we'll see that over the next couple of days.
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00:01:11Now just a quick recap for the month of November turned out to be very bullish.
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00:01:16The Dow has been leading this market higher and it actually closed above the
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00:01:22upper channel line on the monthly chart yesterday.
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00:01:25Now there's the S&P 500 of course, playing catch up, still up 5.66% for the month.
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00:01:31And there is the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, up 5.54% for the month.
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00:01:37And there's the Ishares for the TSX 60, up 4.69%. Again trading back in the channel.
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00:01:43So no new monthly buy signals for anything other than the Dow Diamonds.
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00:01:50Now looking at what worked well on the TSX, it was the global mining.
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00:01:54What didn't work was clean energy stocks in the US.
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00:01:57There weren't any losers.
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00:01:59Last month the market was led higher by the semiconductors and then the XAU.
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00:02:05So both of the major Philadelphia indexes
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00:02:08actually led the US market for the month of November.
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00:02:14Now when we talk about those major trends
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00:02:16that did not change yesterday, there's the bonds, there's the TLT.
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00:02:21They of course, trade all the way till 04:00.
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00:02:24The bond market officially closes before that.
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00:02:27But there's the TLT moving up yesterday. There's the US.
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00:02:30Dollar index had a wild day, traded up to the upper channel line and then came right
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00:02:34back down and closed below the lower channel line.
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00:02:37So a lower US dollar, of course, is supported for higher stock prices.
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00:02:41That hasn't changed. But of course, the US.
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00:02:43Dollar index is down at the bottom of the
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00:02:45panic zones with a nice big pressure zone forming.
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00:02:48This is the time and place we expect the market to turn around.
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00:02:52Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX also had a wild day yesterday.
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00:02:56Came down to the recent lows.
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00:02:58So those are still holding us in check.
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00:03:01$20 should be acting as psychological support.
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00:03:0418.75 is our next target to the downside
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00:03:07and the bottom of our projected trading range.
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00:03:10Now, if we go back in time to the summer, the low back then was actually 19.72. So
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00:03:15we didn't get all the way down to 18.75 back in the summer.
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00:03:21And of course, that's where the market topped out.
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00:03:23So we're very close to where the market
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00:03:26topped out, not where a new trend started back in the month of August.
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00:03:30Now, there's the Dow diamonds making a new high yesterday.
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00:03:33There's the SPY ETF moving up sharply.
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00:03:36Yeah, we closed above the 200 day moving average yesterday.
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00:03:40We haven't broken away from it, we just closed above it.
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00:03:43That is significant for a lot of people.
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00:03:46We'll just have to wait and see if we can
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00:03:47get fall through to the upside and possible run back up to the August highs.
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00:03:53Now, to get there and yesterday we traded right up to our next price target, 406.25.
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00:03:58We closed just above that 407.68, right in the middle of the open gap.
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00:04:04And so the top of that open gap is at 408.46.
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00:04:08And we'll have to see how the market reacts to that.
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00:04:11On the way to 421.
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00:04:1388.
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00:04:14Then looking at the queues, they were up sharply yesterday, back on a buy signal.
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00:04:18And they ran up to the highs we saw a couple of weeks ago.
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00:04:22Our next price target is 296.
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00:04:2488.
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00:04:25Big reversal for the I shares for the Russell 2000.
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00:04:29Where did it land?
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00:04:30Well, our next price target was 187. 50.
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00:04:33We closed at 187.
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00:04:3537.
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00:04:37Then looking at the eyeshares for the
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00:04:38microcap sector, big reversal day yesterday, where did we land?
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00:04:42112. 50 was our target.
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00:04:44We closed at 112.
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00:04:4559.
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00:04:47And then looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60.
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00:04:50After trading down to the lower channel
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00:04:52line, we completely reversed right back up to 31.
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00:04:5525. We closed at 31.
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00:04:5726.
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00:04:58Let's move on and take a look at commodity prices.
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00:05:01We saw a crude oil move up nicely yesterday.
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00:05:04A close above 82.
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00:05:0525 would give us a buy signal on Thursday.
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00:05:08Natural gas came down on Wednesday looking
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00:05:11for a close below 6.81 to give us a new sell signal.
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00:05:14There's a nice big pop for Copper.
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00:05:16Back on a buy signal as of Wednesday's close.
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00:05:19Gold moved up nicely, still on a buy signal.
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00:05:21Silver moved up nicely, still on a buy signal.
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00:05:24Let's finish off with a quick look at my five stocks.
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00:05:27We're still waiting for a buy signal for Apple.
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00:05:29We need to close above 149.03 on Thursday.
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00:05:33To do that.
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00:05:34We're back on a buy signal for Amazon.
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00:05:37As of Wednesday's close, Amazon's being
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00:05:40held in check by this nice open gap at the bottom and this open gap at the top.
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00:05:45We traded up almost to the bottom of that open gap and then pulled back.
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00:05:49So we're seeing some nice resistance up there.
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00:05:51So we're still trapped in a trading range here.
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00:05:55CME Group back on a buy signal.
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00:05:57No joy there.
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00:05:58We've been on a buy signal for a couple of
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00:06:00weeks and we really haven't seen any trend whatsoever.
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00:06:04Then Goldman Sachs had a wild day yesterday.
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00:06:07Traded down to the 375 support level and then moved back up.
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00:06:13Still has not been able to break out above 390.
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00:06:1563.
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00:06:16And if we can do that, then 406.25 is our next target.
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00:06:20Now, for any stock that you own or you're
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00:06:23trading, you should always know what not only the daily targets are, but the weekly
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00:06:28targets, because the weekly targets, of course, are far more significant.
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00:06:31Takes longer to get there, but 375 is
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00:06:35still acting as support and 406.25 is our next target to the upside.
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00:06:40And then Visa closed up yesterday.
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00:06:42Certainly no joy there.
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00:06:44Visa's pretty ugly looking chart if you want to be bullish on this stock.
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00:06:48You can see across the bottom of the
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00:06:50screen here, we've made a series of lower lows.
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00:06:52And if you look across the top here, we've made a series of lower highs.
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00:06:56And right now we still have not made a higher high above the summer highs.
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00:07:03So we're still waiting to see if that can happen.
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00:07:05Otherwise this still looks like a very bearish chart for Visa.
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00:07:09Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:07:12I don't want to get over excited about what happened yesterday.
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00:07:15Yes, there's a lot of new short term buy
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00:07:17signals based on Wednesday's trading action.
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00:07:20I certainly wouldn't want to jump in with
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00:07:23both feet and get over excited about what happened.
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00:07:26We still need to see some fall through to the upside.
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00:07:29We need to see new money coming into the market, and I'm not sure what happened
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00:07:33yesterday is going to be enough to do that at the present time.
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00:07:37Of course, today's the first trading day of the month.
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00:07:39It's usually a bullish day.
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00:07:41Let's see what happens next.
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00:07:42Have a great day, folks.
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00:07:44Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.