Morning Market Outlook 11162023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the pre-market this morning, there's a little chill in the air, not too bad, but

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we do have Walmart trading lower in the pre-market this morning.

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There's Walmart hitting a 52-week high,

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and we are currently trading right around the lower channel line.

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A close on Thursday below 1:64.47 would give us a sell signal for Walmart.

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Now, oddly enough, on Wednesday, it was the US retail sector that led the markets

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higher and that had something to do with target popping.

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Now, unlike Walmart, which is coming off a

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52 week high, there's a target back there in early October making a 52 week low.

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Target certainly surprised investors to the upside.

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To the downside was Metro, the biggest loser on the TSX on Wednesday.

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We also had a big down day for Loblaws.

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Still on a buy signal, that would change

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on Thursday with a close below 118.35. Now, the VIX had an inside day yesterday.

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We're looking for a close on Thursday

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above 16.04. If you're not familiar with the VIX, it keeps

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track of the premiums that investors are willing to pay for options.

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Historically, when the VIX is rising, that

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often puts downward pressure on the stock market.

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Right now, we've been watching the VIX fall and the stock market has been rising.

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It doesn't work as well on the TSX, but it does certainly help.

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When the VIX is rising,

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you can see downward pressure on the Canadian stock market.

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And when the VIX is falling, you see

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upward pressure on the Canadian stock market.

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So that's why we watch the VIX closely every day.

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It gives us a sense of what options traders are thinking about the market.

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So it is a great way to survey investors and find out exactly what they think with

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their wallets, not with their emotions, but with their wallets.

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And when they start to increase the amount

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of coverage they want for their portfolios using options.

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They're willing to pay more premium to get that coverage.

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That means they're worried, they're

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concerned about something, and we also want to be concerned.

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Now, the opposite is also true.

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If premiums are falling and the VIX is

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falling, we expect the stock market to move up.

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Falling premiums is a good indication that

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options traders are bullish on the stock market.

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Now looking at the DOW, it made a new high

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for yesterday and moving up to the highs from back in August.

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We're looking to see if we can continue higher from here.

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Then looking at the S&P 500, it hasn't

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taken out the August highs just yet, but getting pretty close.

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Unlike the NASDAQ, which is broken through

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those August highs, heading for highs from earlier this year.

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Then looking at the equal weighted NASDAQ, it's punched out above the October highs,

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heading towards the August highs right now.

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Now, we did put in a bearish reversal day, but it was a very weak one.

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I just wanted to talk about this for a second.

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We did open and we traded higher and then closed below the opening.

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That gives us a bearish reversal signal.

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The market was still higher on the day, so

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that gives us a very weak bearish reversal signal.

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For a strong bearish reversal signal, not only would you reverse, not only would you

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close negative on the day, but you would also close below the previous days low.

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That would be a very strong bearish reversal signal.

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As we don't have one, I'm not overly concerned at the moment.

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I am much more concerned about symbols hitting resistance and stopping.

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Looking at the next gen, this is the next

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100 stocks on the NASDAQ, so not the NASDAQ 100, the NASDAQ 101 to 200.

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You can see we're trading up to $25.

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That's resistance.

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We got as high as $24.98. If you just

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would give up two cents, you would have got an order filled yesterday.

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You have to look at those lines as not

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only profit target lines, but walls of resistance where there's probably sellers

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sitting up there waiting to hit the sell order.

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You may not actually get to $25.

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Looking at the Semiconductor ETF, similar situation.

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We're trying to get to 200, got as high yesterday as $199.69 before pulling back.

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We didn't close up at $199.69, we pulled back from that level.

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$200 still as resistance.

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Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, new

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high yesterday for this move, we're trying to hit 30.86,

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got as high as 30.82, so four cents away from hitting our target.

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Again, you have to look at it as a line of resistance.

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A wall of sellers are usually up at those price targets.

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Again, bearish reversal signal.

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Again, we closed higher on the day.

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So, yeah, we did swing from a new high to

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actually closing below the open on the day.

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But we did not close below the previous days low.

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We certainly did not close negative on the day.

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So a week bearish reversal signal, nothing to be overly concerned about.

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Now on the TSX, we're always looking for help from the commodity stocks.

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We didn't get any yesterday from the

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energy, didn't get any from the gold stocks.

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Where we're seeing a lot of upward

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momentum over the past week has been in the financials and it's about time.

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If you look at what worked over the past

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week, we've got to Brookfield was the biggest winner in percentage terms,

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followed by GreatWest Life, followed by Power, followed by SunLife.

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Those were the big winners in the financial sector over the last week and

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that has helped hold the TSX up over the last week.

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Let's finish off looking at the ARK Invest ETFs.

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We've got a couple of winners right now.

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Fintech and the Next Generation Internet

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or the Web ETF have been the best performers.

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Investors not really liking the Genomics ETF at the moment.

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So looking at the Fintech and new high

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yesterday before closing pretty close to unchanged.

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21.88 was our next target.

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We hit 21.90. So if you had an order in up there that got filled yesterday, then

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looking at the Internet ETF, new high for this move, 62.50 hit it.

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So congratulations, you locked in some profits.

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The ARK Innovation ETF, 43.75, we got high yesterday as 43.75. If

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you had an order in at that level or slightly below it, it got filled.

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Congratulations.

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The Space ETF, new high yesterday, trying to get to 14.45, sitting on 14.06, closed

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just above it at 14.17. We're hoping to get to 14.45, but hopefully, you've locked

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in some profits at 14.06. Then looking at the Industrial Innovation

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ETF, we're coming up to those October highs.

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Our next price target was

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53.13. Congratulations, you hit that yesterday, so cha-ching.

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Then the Genomics ETF has been on a buy signal for two days now, looking to move

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up to 28.13. And that might not happen on Thursday.

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Nobody's giving any love to the Genomics ETF.

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All I can say is we made a higher low, made a higher high.

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That could be something going forward.

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But right now on Thursday morning, it really isn't anything.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Looking for a little pullback on Thursday

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morning, probably not enough to give us a lot of sell signals outside of Walmart.

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Walmart certainly has the potential of

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generating a new daily sell signal on Thursday.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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