stock-market-timing-08042023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday Morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the

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uptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet.

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We are coming up to employment numbers coming out at 830 this morning, and that

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could certainly add some volatility to the pre market trading action.

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Looking at yesterday's trading action, the

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VIX was able to trade above the previous high, but did not hold those gains.

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In fact, it closed slightly lower on the day.

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So we were able to trade above the top of

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the Fly Paper Channel, but we didn't really hold those gains at all.

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We were looking for movement up above $17.

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Got as high as 17.42 before closing just below $16.

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Now, a lot of movement is still happening

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in the bond market, and I'm not sure what the bond market is trying to tell us.

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I'm not sure anybody is, but they are

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certainly very aggressive in their actions.

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There's the XBB on the TSX, there's the TLT, and the 30 year bond.

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And the 30 year bond year yield now looks

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like that, which of course, is not helpful to the real estate market going forward.

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So that could certainly put a big damper

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on the economy if the real estate market starts to pull back aggressively.

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Now, yesterday we talked about the fact

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the market was probably on pause, waiting for earnings from Apple and Amazon.

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That has now happened, and they basically cancel each other out.

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Apple's earnings were taken negatively.

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It's trading down in the pre market while Amazon's earnings were taken positively.

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And it is popping in the pre market trading this morning.

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So we're coming in and we're on a sell signal right now.

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So our next price target is 137.50 and then 143 75.

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I certainly wouldn't chase Amazon up at these levels.

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I believe it's probably going to be a short term pop.

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And the stock, no matter how well it holds

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up, is still going to be pulled down during August and September.

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Then looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60 we traded down filled a gap.

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Trying to hold 30.47. If we don't hold

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that, then 30.08 would be our next target to the downside.

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Looking at the Dow, it is back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close, joining the

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S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the semiconductors.

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Already on daily sell signals.

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Looking at commodity prices, crude oil moved up yesterday.

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Gasoline was down on the day, sitting

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right on the edge of a new daily sell signal.

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Just a couple of pennies to go.

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And then natural gas popped yesterday.

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It's holding support at 6.64. We're looking to see if we can get over 7.03.

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If we get over 7.03, that takes us back to 7.42. Then looking at the major energy

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ETFs, starting with the XLE, we were up just a little over 1% yesterday.

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Our next price target is 87 50.

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I may have misspoke on Thursday and said

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67.50. And once again, we hit it on Thursday.

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Looking at oil and gas equipment makers,

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the explorers, the small caps, and the TSX listed energy stocks.

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They were all up on Thursday.

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Now, we know that energy stocks are doing well.

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We know that crude oil is up.

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We know that technology stocks have been doing well.

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You'd think clean technology stocks would be doing well.

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Well, that's not the case. Now.

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When I saw this chart, I decided to go and

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look and see how some of the alternative energy ETFs were doing.

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And looking at global wind, not doing

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well, looking at global clean energy, not doing well right now.

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And you can see this particular ETF has

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not been doing well in 2023 with a series of lower highs and lower lows.

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Now there are some ETFs in the alternative

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energy space that are doing well right now.

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Well, so much for my intuition.

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You would think that with energy prices trending sharply higher, energy stocks

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trending sharply higher, technology stocks trending sharply higher, that clean

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technology stocks would also be trending sharply higher.

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And that is certainly not the case.

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Now, the price of gold was down yesterday.

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It's fairly stable in the pre market this morning.

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Price of silver was also lower.

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When we look at the gold and silver

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stocks, the GDX actually closed unchanged on Thursday.

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We saw the Ishares for the TSX global gold

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index down a little over a quarter of a percent, and a little more aggressive

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selling for silver miners, down nearly three quarters of a percent.

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But a fairly quiet day overall for the gold and silver mining stocks.

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Now, we're almost done.

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Let's take a look at some big cap

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technology stocks, starting with PayPal, which was down sharply yesterday.

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Hopefully you locked in some profits along the way.

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We traded up to previous resistance.

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Another early warning signal up there.

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The 200 day moving average looks like it

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played a role once again, which it did back earlier in the year.

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So that could have been a legitimate target to the upside.

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Or you could have used our price targets.

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68, 75 was the first one.

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And then we move up into the gap, 71.88, then 75.

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We were able to go up and fill that open

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gap and trade slightly above 75 for a couple of days before coming down.

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So you've had several opportunities to

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lock in profits along the way, and you should have just a partial position left.

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Of course, you're going to sell that at the open on Friday morning.

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Then looking at shopify, we're coming down

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to our next price targets and we're going to be looking to see if we can hold

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support in New York at 56 .25, in Toronto at $75.

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Now, if we break those, there's a nice open gap there from early May.

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And if we look at the panic zone chart, if we go down to retest the top of that gap,

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that's going to take us down to a reasonable projection, to the downside.

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If we're going to go down and fill the

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gap, that would be more panic selling, and that would certainly be a very negative

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sign for the overall technology sector if shopify were to get down to those levels.

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It's certainly possible in August and September.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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But those are potential targets to the downside.

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Looking at Arc innovations, the ARK ETFs

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are all back on sell signals right now with the rest of the market.

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Notice that we put in a lower high last week.

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And the ARK.

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ETF that's getting hit the hardest right

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now is the Genomics ETF, which was down sharply the last couple of days.

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And then let's finish off with Lightspeed.

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Lightspeed had a wild day yesterday,

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making a new low before reversing and closing just above the upper channel line.

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It's trading down slightly in New York.

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Last time I looked, it was down .25, $0.30. That, of course, can change.

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Whether you take the buy signal or not is up to you.

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I would certainly wait for the next close above the upper channel line to see if

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these investors know what they're doing at this time.

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Okay, folks, that is all for Friday morning.

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I see the employment numbers have come

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out, and I see stock index futures have not changed that much.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.