Canadian Stock Market Outlook 02082024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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com. In the pre market this morning, stock
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index futures are trading below fair value.
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We are doing this video ahead of the US,
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jobless claims that come out at 8:30 this morning.
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And those numbers could certainly add to the pre market volatility.
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Commodities are mixed this morning with
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crude oil trading slightly higher, while gold is down $9 in the pre market.
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Now yesterday was an interesting day,
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probably a day that may go down in market history.
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As we came right up to 5000 and then
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quickly reversed, we got as high as $4,999.
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89. So just $0.
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11 away from hitting the next target, that's good enough for a lot of people.
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And we're pulling back in the pre market this morning.
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Not enough to set off any alarm bells, but
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we're certainly moving away from that $5,000 target.
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Now, the VIX is still on a sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices.
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And we're not really too concerned about
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what the VIX is doing right now unless it starts breaking out above 15.
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Now, if we look at a seasonality chart of
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the VIX, you notice that we make a low in the middle of February.
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And then from that point on, there's a
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huge seasonal move up into the middle of March.
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And that could certainly put downward pressure on the stock market.
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Now we've got the TSX, the TSX 60, the mid caps, small caps and micro caps, all on a
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daily short term sell signal at the moment.
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If we look at what the pros and the public
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are doing for the TSX, you can see we're intertwined at the moment.
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So there's not really a lot of downward pressure at the moment.
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And you can see that we've been trading in a range since the middle of December.
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We came down to the bottom of that range.
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We've come up to the top of that range,
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and right now we're right in the middle of that range and looking for some direction.
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Here we are on a short term sell signal.
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We certainly haven't set off any alarm bells for the overall stock market, just
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the people that trade the market on a daily basis.
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Now, we don't have the big, huge international mega caps that the US have.
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A year ago, we would have been talking about Apple and Tesla.
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Those two are not leading at the moment.
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What's leading and still leading coming
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into Thursday's trading action is meta, Microsoft and Nvidia.
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Nvidia hit a new closing high on Wednesday.
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And so unless those stocks start to break
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down, the US market is still going to hold up.
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Unfortunately, our biggest stock north of
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the border is the Royal Bank, and this is what it's doing at the present time.
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Now, looking at what worked and didn't work yesterday, well, it was infotech was
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the big winner, while utilities were the biggest loser on Wednesday.
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And if we start out looking at information
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technology, this index looks very similar to Shopify.
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There's not a lot of difference here.
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We saw some selling in Shopify last week.
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It has come back, it's back on a buy signal.
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Made a new closing high yesterday, heading towards 118.
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75. That is our next mathematical target.
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Then looking at the industrials, making a new high yesterday, being led higher by
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the railroads, which are the biggest players in this sector.
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So Canadian National trailing Canadian Pacific at the present time.
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Then real estate, no joy there.
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Still on a sell signal.
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Energy, no joy here recently, making a new
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low and series of lower highs and now maybe another lower low.
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The biggest player in this sector, of course, is Canadian Natural Resources.
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No joy there.
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The biggest winner in this sector
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yesterday was Birchcliff trading right up to the upper channel line.
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We were looking for a close above 5.
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11 and we got a close at 5. 10.
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So almost a buy signal.
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A nice big up move for Birchcliff on Wednesday.
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Now, consumer discretionary and some of
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these indices, these sectors are really strange.
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I understand why Canada Goose is in consumer discretionary.
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I understand why Restaurant Brands is in consumer discretionary.
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I don't know what Magnet International is doing in consumer discretionary.
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It's not a consumer manufacturer, it is an industrial company.
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I also don't know what Pet Value is doing in consumer discretionary.
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I haven't met anybody who will go through
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a recession and not feed their animals on a daily basis.
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So that is a consumer staple.
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Now, speaking of consumer staples, we still have Loblaws on a buy signal while
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Metro and Empire are still on sell signals.
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No change there.
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No change for financials.
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Then within financials you've got banks
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and not looking very bullish at this particular time.
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And then looking at the TD bank, heading
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down towards the January lows, then looking at communication services.
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Now, Bell's out with some big announcements this morning.
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They're laying off people.
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They're selling off some radio stations.
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It is trading slightly higher.
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It was down $0.
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39 yesterday. It's up $0.
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31 in New York trading last time I checked.
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And then looking at Telus.
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Telus trying to hold the December lows.
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If we break those lows.
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Our next mathematical target is 22. 66.
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But if you look to the left, there's an
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open gap that could act as a magnet if the stock wants to break down from here.
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Looking at materials, new closing low for materials on Wednesday.
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New closing low for Barrick.
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So no change there.
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Then looking at healthcare, there's only four stocks in this particular sector.
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I'm sure they could add some additional stocks.
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There's other players out there that could be added.
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Chartwell still on a buy signal.
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No change there.
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And Tilray still on a sell signal.
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No change there.
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And then last up, we've got utilities, the biggest loser on Wednesday.
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No change in trend for utilities.
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Let's finish off looking at a couple of stocks that have some pre market news.
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And Bombardier is out with news and it's looking pretty positive.
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So the news is positive.
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How the market reacts to it, of course, is yet to be determined.
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And Bombardier is currently on a buy signal.
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Small pullback yesterday.
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And then we've got Disney.
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Now Disney is a Dow 30 stock.
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It's up over 6% in the pre market.
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At the same time, the Dow futures are trading lower.
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So that tells you how the overall market feels this morning.
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But yeah, we've got Disney back over $100.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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So far, it looks like the market wants to head lower.
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We do have to get over those employment
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numbers at 8:30 before we get to the market open.
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So we'll just have to wait and see.
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Thank you very much for your time and
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attention, and of course, I appreciate any questions you might have.
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The next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
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And at that time we'll take a closer look at the US stock market.

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