Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 04302023

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Sunday evening.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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While stock index futures have opened on
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Sunday night and they are trading right around fair value.
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So the market is waiting to hear what's
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going to happen with the regional bank, First Republic.
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That news should come out sometime in the next 24 hours.
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Now, we always talk about the end of month
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bias being bullish, and this month it was overly bullish.
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We saw the market up on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
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In fact, we saw the Nasdaq 100 make a new high on Friday.
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And so we can't rely on that every single month.
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But we do acknowledge that there is a bullish bias going into month end, and
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typically that will stop us from getting sold off aggressively.
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This month it turned out to be a very bullish time for the market.
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Big winner on Friday was Charter
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Communications, gave a buy signal on Thursday.
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Big fall through to the upside on Friday.
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And the big loser on Friday was First
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Republic Bank, and it was down over 43 %, down over 75 % for the week.
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And then after the markets closed on Friday, it was down another 33 %.
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So I think the stocks go into zero, even if the bank actually gets saved at all.
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I think stock investors are going to get
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totally wiped out here, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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Now, looking at monthly charts for the
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DOW, we're up 2.48 % for the month, up over 5% year to date.
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The DOW is still on a monthly buy signal.
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Looking at the S&P 500, we're only up 1.46 %, up 8.59 % on the year so far.
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So still trying to deal with the upper channel line.
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Now, the Nasdaq 100 was up just under half
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a % on the month and up over 21 % year to date.
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So a big up move in March and very little movement in April.
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Now, you've probably heard me mention before that most of the gains in the US
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stock market this year can be attributed to a handful of stocks.
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And we've currently got Apple responsible for 25 % of the gains in the S&P 500.
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And you've got similar results for the Nasdaq.
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Then Microsoft, responsible for a little over 20 %.
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Then NVIDIA and Meta, above 10 % each.
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And similar situation for Amazon.
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And then Alphabet is just below 10 %.
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Those are most of the gains in the stock market.
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It has not been a broad rally in 2023.
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Now, looking at those stocks, Apple made a new high this week, so that's good.
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We've got Meta making a new high.
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Microsoft had a huge up week, making a new high.
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Then NVIDIA did not make a new high, but it was up 2.32 % on the week.
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Then Amazon pulled back 1.41 %, still trading above the upper channel line.
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Then Alphabet was up 1.83 %, did not make a new high for this move, but still
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trading and closing above the upper channel line.
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Now, what's not working?
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Well, the ARK Innovation ETF was down nearly 11 % on the month.
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It was actually an inside month for them.
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So a month of indecision looking for a
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breakout or breakdown of the previous month's high or low.
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Then looking at Berkshire Hathaway up 6.41 % for the month.
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So just two interesting options to look at.
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Then we're looking at the Nasdaq composite, which of course is much broader
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than the Nasdaq 100, has over 3,000 stocks.
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It was up just a couple of ticks over unchanged.
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Still on a monthly sell signal here, that
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hasn't changed, even though we're up over 16 % for the year so far.
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Then another broad look at the market,
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midcap, smallcap stocks down 1.86 % on the month and year to date, we're up 0.44 %.
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Then looking at semiconductors, big reversal, we're down 7.3 % for the month.
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So a complete reversal of last month's trading but did not close below the
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previous month's low, up over 18 % so far this year.
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Now looking at the Canadian market, the broad TSX Composite, which has over
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200 stocks, closed up 2.67 %, up 6.46 % for the year so far.
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And then the TSX 60,
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so a much more focused look at the Canadian stock market with those 60 big
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cap stocks up a little more on the monthly basis and a little more year to date.
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Looking at the VIX, the VIX continued to move lower this week.
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It had a very wide bar.
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We're going to remain long term bullish on
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the market as long as the VIX does not close above $22.84 this coming Friday.
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Looking at a daily chart, you can see on Tuesday we generated a buy signal, had an
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inside day on Wednesday, and then Thursday and Friday the VIX came down.
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We need to close on Monday above $18.56 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX.
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And we came down to our next price target, 15.63. We closed at 15.78 on Friday.
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Let's finish off with a quick look at commodity, starting with copper.
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Copper is down on the week, did not close below the previous low from back in March.
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That's still acting as support.
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We are still on a weekly sell signal here, no change there.
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The price of gold was actually up on the
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week, $9.60. We do have that early warning signal in there.
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We have closed below $2,000 for the second week in a row.
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We are still closing above the upper channel line, so we need to close below
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1929.80 this coming Friday to give us a sell signal for gold.
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Silver, on the other hand, is performing much better.
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No early warning signal.
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We've closed above $25 for the last four weeks in a row, so that has not changed.
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We certainly traded below $25 this week.
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We've got some little white space between the upper channel line and the bar.
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We did not close below the previous week's
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low, so things are looking a little stronger for silver.
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But if they're going to go down, they're both going to go down at the same time.
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Looking at crude oil, we're in the channel
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at the moment, and so we've been there for the last couple of weeks.
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We need to close this coming Friday below $71.73 to give us a new sell signal.
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Then, of course, we'll be looking to see
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if we can hold the lows from back in March.
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You can see we're stuck in the Fly Paper channel.
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We've been stuck in or attached to the Fly Paper channel for a few months now.
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We'll be looking to see if we can break away or break down below the March lows.
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Then looking at natural gas, you can see we've got a nice
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area between where we are right now and the Fly Paper channel.
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That would be a very profitable trade.
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If it ever got started, it still hasn't got started.
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So we're looking for a close as coming
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Friday above $3.15 to give us a weekly buy signal for natural gas.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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Waiting to see what happens to First Republic.
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That'll probably be a clue to tell us which way the market wants to go next.
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We got some Chinese economic numbers out yesterday which were bearish, but nobody
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seems to be too concerned about that on Sunday evening.
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. you..