Stock Market Outlook 10022023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.

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com. In the premarket this morning, things are

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fairly quiet, stock index futures are flat.

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Little more activity in the commodity sector.

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We do have crude oil trading higher, while

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gold is down another $15 in the premarket on Monday morning.

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Now, as expected, the month of September turned out to be a down month.

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Let's do a quick review.

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The iShares for the TSX 60 closed down only 3.23 %.

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But the TSX hasn't gone anywhere this year.

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In fact, the year to date is up a little less than 1 %.

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And so the iShares for the TSX 60 closed just below the lower channel line.

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But again, we've been just treading water in 2023.

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Now the Dow was down 3.7 %, the S&P 500 was down 5.08 %, the Nasdaq 100 was down

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5.22%. Now we saw a pullback in most of the big cap tech stocks that we follow and

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Apple being the biggest one was down nearly 9 % for the month.

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Tesla held up fairly well, down 3.05 %,

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while Shopify was down over 17 % for the month.

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Now, it's hard to notice that big a move on this chart considering that

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Shopify has been so volatile over the past couple of years.

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Now, a couple of stocks to watch in October, Meta had an inside month and

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actually closed slightly higher on the month.

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On the other hand, we saw NVIDIA, which

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also had an inside month, was down nearly 12%.

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Again, still having trouble up at the $500

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level that is continuing to act as resistance.

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The high for the month was $498.

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The second month in a row, we haven't been able to break through $500.

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It was a fairly volatile month.

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It was an inside month.

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In both cases, both stocks had inside months or months of indecision.

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It's going to be very important in October

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to see which way these particular stocks break either to the upside

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or if October is going to be a bad month, they're going to break to the downside.

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Now, what didn't work in September?

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Well, the price of gold had a hard time

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and was down over 5%, down nearly $100 for the month.

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The price of silver was down to $2.36 for the month, down nearly 10 %.

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So both of those commodities put pressure

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on the commodity related stocks and silver miners were the big losers down nearly 10

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% for the month, while gold stocks on the TSX were down

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7.69 %, and gold stocks in New York were down 8.03 %.

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That's where we saw a lot of weakness in the month of September.

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With what's going on in the premarket this morning, that doesn't look like it's going

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to change on the first trading day of October.

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Now moving on from monthly charts to daily charts, let's take a look at the

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opportunities that are in front of us on Monday.

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Still short the iShares for the TSX60, that would change on Monday with a close

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above $30.31, not expecting that to happen.

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Of course, if it doesn't happen, that

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upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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If we take out last week's low then 28.91

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and 28.52 are the next targets to the downside.

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Looking at the SPY, looking for a close on Monday above

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$435.91. If we take out last week's low then 414.06 and 406.25 come into play.

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Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, we were

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able to drive up into the channel on Friday, but not close in the channel.

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Looking for a close on Monday above $364.06 to give us a buy signal.

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Potential area resistance is the top of the open gap there at 364.46 that could

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act as a price magnet and a level of resistance.

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Now, if we take out last week's low, then

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I move down to 343.75 and 335.94 come into play.

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Looking at the TSX most active starting with Baytex, made a new high on Friday.

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A close below $5.62 on Monday would give us a sell signal.

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Our next price target is 6.25. Tc Energy, nothing going on there, stuck

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at 46.88. If we start to continue to move lower this week, then 43.75 would be our

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next target, which would be the low from July.

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Then looking at the TD bank, still the strongest bank of the group, looking for a

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close on Monday above 82.77. This is looking pretty bullish.

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In August, we made a high.

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In September, we made a higher high.

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In August, we made a low, then a series of higher lows.

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So it's looking pretty bullish for the TD Bank.

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Then looking at the Canadian Natural Resources.

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As I mentioned last week, we are up the top of the Panic Zones here.

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These continuation trades are very risky and you don't want to be jumping in up at

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these levels if you weren't in from the start back here.

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Now on Monday for Canadian Natural

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Resources, we're looking for a close below 85.63 to give us a new sell signal.

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Looking up our next target, if we take out last week's high, is 93.75. Then

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looking at Athabasca Oil Sands, a new high for this move.

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Our next target to the upside is $4.69. Looking at the most actives from Friday's

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trading action in New York, we're starting off with Tesla, looking for a close on

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Monday above $257.17. We're working ourselves into a corner here.

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The market is going to be looking to see

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if we break out or break out of this nice triangle that's forming.

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You can see that we're in the middle

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exact middle of the trading range we've been in for the last month.

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We closed at $250.22, so not a big

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bias to the upside there, $0.22 over $2.50, no big deal.

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Then looking at Carnival, wild day on Friday, trading up through the upper

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channel line before closing lower on the day.

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We're looking for a close above $14.75 on Monday to give us a buy signal.

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Otherwise, 12.50 is our next target to the downside, followed by 10.94.

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Then looking at Palantir, Wild Day on Friday made a new high for this move and

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then reversed and actually closed higher by just 23 cents.

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We're trying to get to 17.19, that's our next mathematical target for Palantir, and

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then 18.75. Looking at Ford, Ford is still on a sell signal here.

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It's treading water.

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A close above 12.61 would give us a buy

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signal on Monday, and our next price target to the is $13.28, otherwise, we'd

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be looking for support once again down at the $11.72 level.

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Then last up this morning is Amazon.

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Amazon traded up on Friday, looking for a

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close on Monday above $133.24. Again, if that doesn't happen, that upper

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channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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If we take out last week's low, then

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118.75 would be our next target to the downside for Amazon.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Still looking for a quiet open on Monday morning.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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