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00:00:01Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:05pre-marketcom.
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00:00:06In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value.
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00:00:09DOWare two-day futures currently up 250 points.
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00:00:12So we are adding to yesterday's gains in the premarket this morning.
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00:00:17Today is the first day of the two day Fed
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00:00:19meeting, so we're expecting to hear about interest rates on Wednesday afternoon.
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00:00:25I'm betting, of course, that the Fed continues to raise rates.
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00:00:28If they don't, if they stop at this point
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00:00:30without defeating inflation, that's going to tell the market that the financial
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00:00:35crisis is much worse than it is, and that'll probably crash the market.
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00:00:40But we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:00:42Now, while the overall financial markets
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00:00:45recovered a bit on Monday, the stocks in question continued to move lower.
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00:00:49We've got First Republic, remember they
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00:00:51got that big influx of money last week, down in another 47 % and change.
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00:00:56And then Credit Suisse, which is getting
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00:00:58bought out by UBS, was down another 53 % and change.
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00:01:03There's UBS going up, filling the open gap and then pulling back.
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00:01:08Was up yesterday, over 3 % on the day.
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00:01:11It's up about the same amount in the premarket this morning.
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00:01:15We are trading slightly higher this
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00:01:17morning in the premarket with the rest of the market.
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00:01:20Regional banks, you can see we closed slightly higher on the day yesterday.
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00:01:25Us banks closed slightly higher yesterday.
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00:01:29Canadian banks also closed slightly higher yesterday after having an inside day.
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00:01:34So no definite change in trend for any of those symbols.
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00:01:39And then looking at the S&P 500 SPY ETF,
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00:01:43we just had an inside day of an inside day.
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00:01:46So we're going back to Thursday's high and low.
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00:01:49We are trading up near that high in the
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00:01:52premarket this morning, so we'll have to see if we can break out above it.
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00:01:55And of course, if we start breaking out above it, we are going to close above the
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00:01:59upper channel and giving us a new daily buy signal.
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00:02:02But those are the most important numbers
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00:02:04I'm going to be watching on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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00:02:07Now, we are technically very oversold on all the major indices.
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00:02:12So just from an oversold position, this is the time and place to look for buying
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00:02:16opportunities outside of the technology sector.
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00:02:20This is the percentage of stocks
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00:02:22currently trading above their 50 day moving average on the S&P 500.
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00:02:27And we had a couple of extremes last
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00:02:29year each year, which made for good low risk buying opportunities.
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00:02:33We're getting down to that area.
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00:02:35There's nothing to stop the market from turning around at this point.
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00:02:39But as you can see from just an oversold point of view, this is the time and place
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00:02:44where you can look for new buying opportunities.
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00:02:47And we'll be watching the VIX to see if it comes back down.
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00:02:51If we get the VIX down below 21.77 on
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00:02:53Tuesday, that would certainly be bullish for the market.
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00:02:57Not expecting that to happen until after the Fed meeting.
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00:03:00And of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:03:05Now, of course, through this financial
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00:03:07crisis, a lot of the market has been hiding in bonds, and that'll be another
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00:03:11indication the market wants to start going back up is when the market starts getting
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00:03:17out of bonds and moving that money back into the stock market.
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00:03:21Now, gold has had a great run over the past couple of days.
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00:03:24It popped out above 2,000 and it's now starting to pull back.
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00:03:28That doesn't mean that it's the end of the
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00:03:30move for gold, but gold might be taking a break.
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00:03:33And of course, if the market is going to
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00:03:35reverse and start heading higher, then gold might start coming back down.
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00:03:40Now, crude oil made a new low for this
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00:03:42move yesterday before recovering and closing higher on the day.
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00:03:46Certainly no change in trend just yet, but could be the start of something if we can
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00:03:51get crude oil to continue to move higher over the next couple of days.
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00:03:55And natural gas made a new low yesterday, so no change in trend for natural gas.
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00:04:00Now, the queues are still holding up.
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00:04:02Apple is still holding up, making a new high yesterday.
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00:04:05Unfortunately, Microsoft pulled back.
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00:04:08We still have Shopify on a buy signal.
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00:04:11A close for Shopify on the TSX below 57.58 on Tuesday would give us a sell signal,
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00:04:17and we're still waiting for Tesla to give us a buy signal.
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00:04:21That could certainly be bullish for the
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00:04:23market if we see Tesla close above 186.70 on Tuesday.
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00:04:29Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:04:32This is not the time and place to be bold.
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00:04:34We need to wait and see what the Fed does
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00:04:37and of course, how the market reacts to what the Fed does.
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00:04:42Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:04:43Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.