Stock Market Trends 08132023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing television.

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Let's start off a little housekeeping.

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I won't be doing any premarket videos this

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week, so the next time we'll be analyzing the stock market together is going to be a

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week from today or next Sunday, Sunday, August 20th.

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Let's start off with looking at the US $ index.

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It moved up once again for the third week

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in a row, and that is not helping the stock market at the moment.

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We also bonds close lower.

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The 30-year bond had an inside week.

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The 30-year bond yield had an inside week and moved up.

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We're still looking to see if we can retest the highs from late in 2022.

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Looking at the VIX, the VIX pulled back

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this week into the channel, so certainly a possibility of a weekly sell signal this

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coming Friday if the market wants to move higher from here.

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Of course, the seasonality of August is to

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the downside, so we'll just have to wait and see how things work out.

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But this coming Friday, we'll be looking

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to see if the VIX closes below $13.72. Now, when we look at the daily charts for

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the VIX, you can see we traded down to the lower channel line two days in a row.

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We're still looking for a close on Monday below

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$14.81. Now, if you've been with us over the past month or so, we've been looking

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to see if the VIX could break out above the daily Fly Paper Channel.

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And yeah, on one day it certainly did that

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and then hit the 200 day moving average and came right back down.

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So right now we're still stuck in the

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Fly Paper Channel looking to see if we can break down, if we can break out over $18,

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that would certainly be a very bearish sign for the stock market.

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Looking at the TSX, the TSX was actually up on the week, up 1.04 % and certainly a

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big winner when you compare it against the rest of the North American market.

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For the month, we're still down on the month and still dealing with resistance

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at 31.25. So looking at a weekly price target chart, you can see we've been

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finding support for the last two weeks down to the 30.47 level.

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The market gave us a bearish reversal signal last week.

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We were looking for fall through to the downside to lock that signal in.

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So far that hasn't happened, but what also

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hasn't happened is we have not taken out the high from the previous week.

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So looking to see if we can break out above 31.25 this week and take out above

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31.25 this week and take out the high at 31.32. And if we can do that, then we

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would expect to move up to the 32.03 level.

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How are we going to be able to do that?

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Well, on the back of energy stocks.

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And if we can get crude oil to break out above resistance, we may be able to see

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energy stocks go back and retest the high from back in October of 2022.

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Looking at the US market and just looking

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at some monthly charts here, we're down on the month for the S&P 500 for the Nasdaq.

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But so far, they're still having inside months.

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So no major breakdown yet,

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unlike semiconductors, which have broken down, and technology stocks.

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So when you take those two out of the

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equation, you can see that what led the market higher, is starting to break down.

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So semiconductors were down over five %.

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The technology sector as a whole was down

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a tick under two and a half %, both back on weekly sell signals.

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Now, the energy sector in the US was the

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best performing sector, just like in Canada.

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Again, we may be able to see a move up to

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back to the highs from late 2022 if we can get crude oil to continue to move higher.

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Now, taking a look at technology stocks, not all of them have broken down just yet.

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Apple is on its second week of a sell signal, so no change in trend there.

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Amazon still holding on.

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It had the big pop.

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I didn't think it was going to be able to

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move higher from where it popped, and so far that is the case.

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But we certainly don't have a sell signal for Amazon.

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Meta still trading and closing above the

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upper channel line, so no change in trend there.

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Unlike Microsoft, which is back on a sell

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signal as of Friday's close, Amazon having an inside week, no change in trend there.

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Big down week for Invidea, and that helped push the semiconductors lower.

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On Friday, we're looking for a close below

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$400.06 to give us a sell signal for Invidea.

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Shopify on both sides of the border has

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been on a sell signal since last week, so second week of a sell signal for Shopify.

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And then looking at Tesla down 4.42 % holding just above the lower channel line,

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so looking for a close this coming Friday below

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$240.08. Now, keeping with the technology stock theme, we haven't talked about the

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ARK Invest ETFs in a while, and the best performing one this year is the Internet

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or web-related ETF, which is currently up over 50%.

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Still on a buy signal here.

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We're looking for a close this coming Friday below 57.32. As one would expect,

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we ran into the Fly Paper Channel and stopped.

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We became overbought.

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We got the Market Thermometer Indicator up

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to a 10, and now we're starting to pull back.

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I've said lots of nasty things about ARC.

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It's all related to money management, not to their stock picking skills.

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I'd still keep track of the stocks they're following.

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That is still a good thing.

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But from where we are right now, we still need to go up over 100 % to get back to

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where we started to break down below the weekly Fly Paper Channel.

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And then, of course, we can go back to the all time high.

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And that's still 200 % away from where we are right now.

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So money management skills, zero; stock picking skills, probably a 10.

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The fintech is up over 47 %.

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Again, we've run into the Fly Paper Channel.

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We were overbought. Now we're starting to pull back.

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Then the ARKInnovations ETF, their main

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ETF, barely got into the Fly Paper Channel.

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It is currently up over nearly 37 %.

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Again, we became overbought.

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Now we're pulling back.

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Looking at the industrial innovation, or

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this would be the robotics ETF, it started to break out or trade above the

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Fly Paper Channel, never broke away from it.

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I traded up to the previous high and found resistance there.

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We are starting to pull back, not by a lot.

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Then looking at the space ETF, up 18 % change so far this year.

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Then looking at the laggart of the bunch

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is the genomics ETF, which is just under 13% at the present time.

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Again, same story, ran into the Fly Paper Channel, started to pull back.

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Now we're waiting to see how low we can go and to see if there's any low risk buying

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opportunities that's set up in the not so distant future.

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Let's finish off looking at commodities and lumber.

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Nothing going on there.

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Inside week for lumber.

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Almost an inside week.

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Yeah, that's an inside week for wheat.

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Wheat still is in the news all the time.

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There's really nothing going on there.

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Copper pulled back.

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It is back on a sell signal as of Friday's close.

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That's not good for mining stocks.

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Then, of course, we had gold down $29.50

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on the week, still holding the low from a couple of months ago.

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Silver was down over 4% on the week.

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Remember, silver generated a bearish

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reversal signal a month ago and was not able to trade through it.

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Then looking at the energy sector, crude oil still stuck at resistance.

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Remember, '81.25 was the top of our

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projected trading range on the daily charts.

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Coming over to the weekly charts, '87.50 is our next target.

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If we can break away from '81.25, so far we have not been able to do that.

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Natural gas finishing the week up nearly seven and a half %.

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Hopefully, we can get some upward momentum to continue.

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And last up, we're looking at natural gas.

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Natural gas up nearly seven and a half %

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this week sitting right on the upper channel line.

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Hopefully, we can get something going on

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here with natural gas, and that would certainly help quite a few

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of the energy stocks to continue to move higher from here.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Enjoy your week.

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The next time you'll hear my voice

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to talk about the stock market is going to be next Sunday.