Monday Market Outlook 02262024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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com.
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In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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Stock index futures and commodities are slightly below fair value, but there's
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certainly no sign of aggressive selling coming into Monday morning.
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Hey, I've been off a couple of days. I've been sick.
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That hasn't changed much.
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But last week, you couldn't have heard me speak.
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So the first time I've had a cold since before COVID.
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So hopefully this won't continue for very long.
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We've got Bitcoin and Ethereum both
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hitting new highs last week with the overall stock market.
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The VIX on a weekly basis is still on a sell signal.
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That's supportive for higher stock prices.
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On a daily basis, we're back on a sell signal as of Friday's close, and of
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course, that can be supportive for higher stock prices going forward.
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Now, the VIX did trade up through $15 as
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we were expecting, and we did get some gyrations in the market.
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Remember, we had a daily sell signal in the Dow, then we had a daily signal in the
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Nasdaq, and both of them flipped back during the week.
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And so we're fully back on daily buy signals for all the major indices.
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Looking at the S&P 500, it has broken through 5,000.
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It is still closing above it.
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It certainly dipped through it last week, so it's not a huge area of support.
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It's just we are trading above a psychological number.
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We'll have to see how long we can stay
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above it, but we certainly closed above the previous week's high.
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That had a lot to do with NVIDIA, which came out with earnings, and we got a sell
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signal going into earnings, and then the next morning, we woke up and
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saw that after the earnings announcement, traders traded the stock sharply higher,
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and so there was no reason to take that sell signal.
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So far in 2024, NVIDIA is up another 59% leading the S&P 500 higher for the year.
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Then we've got Metta up 36.
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37%, and then we've got Eli Lilly up 32.
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01 %.
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Tapestry up 33.
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89 %.
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Catalent up 30.
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8 % so far in 2024.
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Now, what hasn't worked on the S&P 500?
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Well, I'm not going to go through too many
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of them, but MarketAxess is the big loser, followed by Arthur Daniels Midland.
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And then the only gold mining stock in the
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S&P 500 Newmont down over 24% year to date.
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And that's, of course, not a good sign for
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a Canadian investor who follows a lot of gold stocks.
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Now, looking at the TSX, the TSX is also making new highs right now.
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And as you can see, we still have a ways to go before we hit the all-time high, but
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we are certainly clearing the highs from 2023.
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2023 was a very rough year for the TSX.
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We couldn't get everybody lined up at the same time.
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Information technology did well throughout the year.
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Now, we've got financials back in sync with the rest of the market.
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We've got energy stocks moving higher.
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That can help the TSX.
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Then, unfortunately, gold stocks made a new low last week.
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Even though the price of gold was up on
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the week, gold stocks are not in favor at the moment.
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Now, so far in 2024, Celestica has been
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the big winner up over 40%, looking at Aritzia up over 32%, and then we've
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got Trisura, up over 27%, and then we've got Tricon, up nearly 25%.
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That stock looks like it's going to be taken out.
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Then SSR mining is the big loser on the
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TSX, down over 55%, followed by a NovaGold, down over 34% year to date.
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Let's finish off with a quick look at commodities.
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Crude oil is down on the week, still holding We have it in there.
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We did not close below the previous week's low.
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Natural gas up 1% in change on the week.
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No change in trend there.
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Then looking at a couple of the inflation
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components, we've got corn making a new low.
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We've got soy beans down at the previous low from last year.
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Then we're looking at wheat, and wheat's
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holding the low that it hit a couple of months ago, so no change in trend there.
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Then looking at copper.
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Copper is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close.
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Gold was It's up on the week, up over $25, closing just above the previous week's
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high, which could turn out to be bullish for the price of gold.
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Then we've got the price of silver,
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unfortunately, going the opposite direction.
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So we're still on a weekly sell signal for silver.
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They And then, Coco hit a new high.
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Look for upward pressure on the price of chocolate bars or the
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quality of those chocolate bars is going to continue to deteriorate.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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So far, it It looks like we're going to
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have a fairly quiet open on Monday morning.
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Have a great day.
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Next time, you'll hear my voice, hopefully on Tuesday morning.
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Good morning.