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00:00:00Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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00:00:06In the premarket this morning, stock index
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00:00:07futures are down across the board and around the world.
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00:00:12That could possibly change at 8:30 this morning.
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00:00:14There's a whole bunch of economic numbers
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00:00:16coming out, but I find that unlikely this morning.
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00:00:20But we'll just have to wait and see how the market reacts.
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00:00:23A one stock that is not part of the
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00:00:25Magnificent Seven that is out in the premarket is UPS.
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00:00:29UPS was coming into today's trading action, making a new low yesterday.
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00:00:33It's down another three and a half % in the premarket.
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00:00:36And of course, UPS is part of the transports and the Dow Transports were
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00:00:40down sharply yesterday, also making a new low.
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00:00:45Now, 2023 has been the year of AI.
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00:00:48Typically, when a CEO has mentioned AI in
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00:00:52their call, it's usually helped their stock.
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00:00:54It may have helped Microsoft, certainly didn't help Alphabet.
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00:00:57But yeah, there's something I saw off a CMBC yesterday that
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00:01:03between the two of them, they mentioned AI 145 times during their calls.
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00:01:09Now, the Magnificent Seven stocks are in
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00:01:12the Nasdaq 100, and that's been able to hold the Nasdaq up fairly well in 2023.
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00:01:18It's currently still up over 30 % for the year.
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00:01:22Now, the Magnificent Seven have not been the best performing stocks of 2023, but
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00:01:26because of their size and performance, they've been able to hold the Nasdaq up.
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00:01:32Compare that to the Russell 2000, which is currently down over six %, and the TSX,
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00:01:37even with the added performance of the energy sector, the TSX is down 2.25 % year
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00:01:44to date coming into Thursday's trading action.
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00:01:47Now, we're going to walk through these charts fairly quickly.
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00:01:50Two of the seven are still performing fairly well.
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00:01:52The rest of them are heading lower.
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00:01:54Here's the Nasdaq-100, you can see the last early warning signal.
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00:01:58We had an early warning signal here.
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00:02:00We drove down, pressure's on form.
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00:02:02That is the time and place you look for a buy signal.
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00:02:04We drove up.
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00:02:05Unfortunately, early warning signal came back down.
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00:02:08Now, what we were looking to see was, does
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00:02:11the Nasdaq-100 make a new lower-low for this move?
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00:02:15Not for 2023, but just for this move.
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00:02:17If it starts to break down below the
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00:02:20Flypaper channel, that would be very bearish.
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00:02:22Here we are making a lower-low yesterday, starting to break down, but we haven't
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00:02:27broken away from the Flypaper channel just yet.
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00:02:29Our next mathematical target for the triple Qs are 343.75 is our next target.
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00:02:35That comes in line with the 200-day moving average.
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00:02:38The financial world will be watching that very closely.
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00:02:43Now, you can see the last time we had a bearish reversal signal.
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00:02:46We ask you to watch these signals closely.
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00:02:48They don't always work.
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00:02:49But if you're going to line that up with an early warning signal on the Panic Zone
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00:02:54chart, it's probably the time and place to at least stop buying.
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00:02:58A bearish reversal signal does not generate a sell signal
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00:03:02or bearish engulfment signal does not generate a sell signal, but it should be
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00:03:07enough to just stop you from buying and looking for selling opportunities.
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00:03:12You're coming into Thursday's trading action.
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00:03:14You're either short the queues or long the
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00:03:15bear ETFs, so you should be making lots of money on Thursday.
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00:03:20Now, the Magnificent Seven contains these stocks.
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00:03:22We'll walk through them as quickly as possible, starting off with Alphabet.
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00:03:27There's the early warning signal at the top of the screen.
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00:03:29It actually struggled to move up on
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00:03:34Wednesday, excuse me, and traded right up to the upper channel line.
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00:03:38Then yesterday, just gapped down sharply.
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00:03:41We were looking to see if the recent low would act as support.
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00:03:44Guess what? We cut right through that and we're
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00:03:47starting to move down below the bottom of the Flypaper channel.
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00:03:51Of course, we're looking to see if the 200 day moving average is going to hold us.
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00:03:56There's a nice open gap over there to the
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00:03:59left and you can see that that open gap, the bottom of it is at the 123.69 level.
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00:04:06That could be a potential target and area of support.
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00:04:09If that doesn't hold, of course, 118.75 is going to be our next target.
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00:04:15Next up, we're looking at Amazon.
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00:04:17Amazon struggled.
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00:04:18We had the early warning signal.
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00:04:20We had the decline.
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00:04:21Pressure Zone started to form.
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00:04:23We started to move up that the open gap was a potential area of resistance.
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00:04:28Guess what? That's what it ended up being.
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00:04:30And so now we're coming down.
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00:04:32And did the recent low hold?
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00:04:33Nope, we broke that yesterday.
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00:04:36Amazon struggled to move up above the FlyPaper channel.
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00:04:40We call the FlyPaper channel because we expect stocks to get stuck there.
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00:04:44And here we are coming down, making a new
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00:04:47low on Wednesday, hitting the 200 day moving average.
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00:04:50If you look down to the left there, you'll see a nice open gap way down there.
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00:04:54I don't know if we're going to get that
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00:04:55far, but you only worry about gaps if they're in front of you.
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00:04:59So if the stock is going down, if there's a gap above you, doesn't matter.
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00:05:03If the stock is going up and there's a gap below you, doesn't matter.
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00:05:06It only matters when it's ahead of you.
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00:05:09Here we are, mathematically speaking, our next target is 118.75 and then 112.50.
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00:05:15I'm not going to talk about any potential buy signals today.
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00:05:18It's just not the day to do that.
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00:05:21Then Apple, well, Apple had an early
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00:05:23warning signal there at the top of the screen.
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00:05:25We're coming down.
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00:05:26There has not been aggressive selling.
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00:05:28Earnings come out next week, maybe
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00:05:29investors are waiting to for those earnings to come out.
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00:05:33The next big tell, of course, is going to be if we can hold the recent low from
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00:05:39September at the other end, what are you looking at here?
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00:05:42You're looking at a high, lower, high, lower, high, and...
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00:05:45And now the recent rally
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00:05:46struggled and could not get out of the Flypaper channel.
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00:05:49So that is a bearish sign.
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00:05:51We are sitting on the 200 day moving average.
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00:05:54You can see there's an open gap below us,
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00:05:56not too far below us, but at 167.04, that could be a potential target.
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00:06:01And if we break down below that open gap, then 162.50 would be our next target.
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00:06:07And again, no reason to talk about potential buy signals on Thursday.
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00:06:11Looking at Meta, Meta coming off the top of the Panic Zones there, you see the
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00:06:16early warning signal, but the stock is still holding up incredibly well.
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00:06:21The FlyPaper channel has done what it's supposed to do, which in a bullish
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00:06:26situation, people are going to be willing to buy the dips.
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00:06:28That has been happening over the past couple of months, August, September.
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00:06:33Now we're into October.
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00:06:34Does that continue or do we break down from here?
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00:06:37Now looking at moving averages, we're just sitting at the 50 day.
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00:06:42The 100 and the 200 day are below us and
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00:06:44the 200 day is way down there just above 250.
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00:06:48Now looking at our price targets, you can
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00:06:50see that we're far away from that 200 day moving average.
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00:06:54It's going to take a lot of selling to get down from here.
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00:06:58You can see that in August, we traded below the 281.25 level.
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00:07:03That could certainly be a reasonable
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00:07:04target if the market wants to continue to stay bullish on Meta.
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00:07:09The pros are just about to give up control on the stock.
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00:07:13We'll just have to wait and see if that continues.
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00:07:15What we're seeing in the premarket this
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00:07:17morning is Meta trading down $9.10 in the premarket down towards the 290 level.
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00:07:24Now looking at Microsoft, Microsoft is still on a buy signal right now.
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00:07:28We came into yesterday's trading action on a buy signal.
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00:07:32We've been there for a few weeks.
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00:07:34If you were looking at price targets, if
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00:07:36you were long Microsoft going into yesterday's trading action, you had an
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00:07:41order up there at the 343.75 area andtoching.
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00:07:45It got filled yesterday, so congratulations.
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00:07:48That might be as high as Microsoft can go for this particular move.
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00:07:53We saw it pull back in today, and wouldn't
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00:07:56be surprised if it continued to pull back on Thursday.
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00:07:59Last up, Tesla. Tesla.
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00:08:02You'll look across the top of the screen, you'll see a series of lower highs.
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00:08:05Then we were looking to see if the recent low in September was going to hold.
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00:08:09That didn't.
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00:08:10We were also looking at this nice triangle.
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00:08:13It was looking, it could go either way, but it went to the downside.
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00:08:17The August low did not hold.
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00:08:19That's bearish.
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00:08:20We're looking for lower prices from here.
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00:08:24Looking at our price target chart, if
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00:08:25you're shorting Tesla, you want to take some money off the table at 187.50, and
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00:08:29then have another order in at 156.25. As I always say, when you're
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00:08:36shorting or long a stock, you want to take profits at the price targets.
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00:08:40At the same time, you don't want to completely liquidate a position.
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00:08:44Tesla is already on a sell signal, of course.
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00:08:47Now, I would normally tell you that we'd get a buy signal if we had a close on
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00:08:52Thursday above 2:39.38. That's highly unlikely to happen today.
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00:08:56There's a nice open gap on the way up.
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00:08:59And, of course, years, we're already heading in the wrong direction.
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00:09:02And, of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:09:07Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:09:10Looking for some selling at the open on Thursday morning.
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00:09:13Unless those economic numbers coming out
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00:09:16at 8:30 this morning totally shock the market.
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00:09:19That's probably not going to be the case, but it could happen.
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00:09:22There is always a mathematical probability
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00:09:25that the strangest things could happen, highly unlikely.
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00:09:28But yeah, it's possible.
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00:09:30Have a great day, folks.
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00:09:31Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
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00:09:33And on Friday morning, I have a blood donors appointment.
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00:09:37I hope you have a blood donors appointment booked in the not so distant future.