Morning Market Outlook 01122024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board.
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While commodities are higher, gold's up $35 in the pre-market on Friday morning.
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Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a sell signal.
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That's supportive for higher stock prices.
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We've got some other things that are not
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supportive for higher stock prices going on at the moment.
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We're looking for a close on the VIX above
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1371 on Friday to turn us from being short term bullish to being short term bearish.
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Now, J. P.
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Morgan is out with earnings this morning, and the stock is up in the pre-market this
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morning, so we're still on a buy signal here.
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No change in trend.
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Then looking at the US dollar index, we
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wanted to generate a sell signal here and start trending lower.
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That hasn't started yet.
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Then looking at bond prices, we're looking for bond prices to move up.
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They closed higher yesterday, but still, we don't have a new uptrend for the bond
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market, which would equate to a downtrend for bond yields.
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Again, we don't have that just yet.
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Now, we're still looking at a very mixed market here.
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Yes, the Dow and the S&P 500 and the
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Nasdaq 100 are on buy signals, but much of the rest of the market still has not
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participated in this recent rally over the past couple of days.
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You can see the iShares for the Russell
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2000 making a new low for this move on Thursday.
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That's also true for the iShares for the Microcap Sector.
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Now, looking at semiconductors, we're still on a sell signal here.
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No change.
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It looks like that open gap acted as
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resistance, and so far, that is keeping the semiconductors in check.
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Now, banks are coming out with earnings.
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The US S&P Bank Index is still on a sell signal, so no change there.
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Then looking at the Canadian market, the
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TSX and the TSX-60 both traded down to the lower channel on Thursday.
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So certainly a mathematical possibility of a sell signal on Friday.
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Looking at the Canadian Financials, they
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rolled over yesterday, joining Canadian Banks already on a sell signal.
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And we have all of the major Canadian banks on sell signals except two.
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So there's the Bank of Montreal, the Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC.
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Then we're looking at the National Bank
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still on a buy signal, and the Royal Bank still on a buy signal.
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That would change on Friday with a close below $133.30.
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And if that were to happen, the Royal Bank would join the TD Bank already
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on a sell signal, coming down quite hard on Monday.
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Now, I think a lot of people are fairly bullish at the moment.
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They're watching some tech stocks lead the market higher.
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But as we saw, looking at the Russell 2000
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and the microcap sector, not everybody's participating in the current rally.
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And when we look at the ARK Invest ETFs, whether you're looking at the Fintech,
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we're looking at Genomics, the Innovations ETF, Industrial Innovations, the Internet
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or Space, none of these ETFs have come back on buy signals this week.
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So hopefully next week, this rally can
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start to broaden out If we get the bonds and the US dollar moving in the
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right direction, so far, that is not the case.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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I'm going to put this out a little before
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the inflation numbers come out at 8:30 30 this
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morning, so we could see some additional volatility.
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But so far, it looks like the major stock market indices want to open lower, while
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commodities want to open higher on Friday morning.
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Have a great day, folks. Have a great weekend.
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The next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.
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Good morning.

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