Stock Market Timing 09282023

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00:00:00

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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com.
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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are fairly quiet.
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They're slightly above fair value.
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Commodities are mixed with crude oil
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lower, while gold is slightly higher on Thursday morning.
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Well, things are pretty quiet right now.
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We've got economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.
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We've got jobless claims and GDP numbers.
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They, of course, could both add to the premarket volatility this morning.
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Yesterday was an interesting day.
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We made a new low for this move and then saw some buying going into the close.
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For the most part, we ended the day flat.
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Of course, the first thing I'm looking for
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is the first close above the previous day's high.
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When the stock market was moving up, the
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first thing I look for is the first close below the previous day's low.
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You can see when that happened and the market continued to move lower.
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Then once it moved up, you can see we
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closed below the previous days low and things continued lower from there.
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Now, the VIX made a new high yesterday before reversing.
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It did not close below the previous days low, so not overly concerned just yet.
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At the same time, bond yields continue to move higher.
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Bonds themselves continue to move lower.
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Whether you're looking at the TLT or the XBB, then the US dollar continued to move
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higher, and of course, the euro continued to move lower.
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So none of those major trends have
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changed, even though we saw a little buying in the stock market on Wednesday.
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Looking at the world of commodities, we'll
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start off with the energy sector, looking at the major US energy ETFs.
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Starting with the USO, new high for the
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USO on Wednesday, gasoline moved up into the channel.
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A close above $73.21 would give us a buy signal on Thursday.
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Natural gas is struggling here, and it's
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got a similar chart pattern to a lot of other symbols: lower highs, lower lows.
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If we need a buy signal on Thursday for
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natural gas, we need to close above $6.88 cents.
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Then looking at the stocks, the energy
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sector on both sides of the border generated buy signals on Wednesday.
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There's the XEG on the TSX and the XLE in New York, both back on buy signals.
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Of course, both of these would be considered high risk buy signals.
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You're up at the top of the Panic Zone.
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The easy money has been made, and we're looking for crude oil to
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continue to move higher from here to help pull these energy stocks higher.
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Looking at the mining sector, starting off
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with the metals, they're all on sell signals at the moment.
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There's the GLD breaking down below the
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August lows on like silver, which is still holding on to those August lows.
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Then we've got palladium and platinum both
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struggling, and then copper is still on a sell signal.
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New low for copper on Wednesday.
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Then taking a look at the miners, copper
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miners making a new low for this move, gold miners on both sides of the border.
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There's the GDX, there's the XGD.
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Then Silver Miners also making a new low for this move on Wednesday.
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Next up, let's take a look at the major
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stock market index ETFs that we love to follow starting in
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Toronto, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60.
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New low for this move.
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We've obviously taken out the August lows.
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Now we're trying to find support from back in June.
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Then we had a new low for the Dow.
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Again, we recovered going into the close.
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We still closed lower on the day, so no change there.
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Then there's the SPY slightly higher on the day after making a new low.
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That's a similar situation for the Nasdaq-100, closing a little higher than
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the S&P 500 on the day, but again did not close above the previous day's high.
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Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, a lot of people commented
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about the fact that there seemed to be an interest in small cap, micro cap stocks on
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Wednesday, but not enough to close above the previous day's high.
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That's also true for the iShare's microcap ETF.
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Let's finish off this morning's
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presentation, taking a look at the Stock House Bullboards for the energy sector.
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The most watched stock is Baytex, followed by Athabasca and then Pipestone.
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The energy sector itself is back on a buy signal.
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Here's the iShare for the TSX energy sector.
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Of course, a lot of these trades are extension trades.
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They're high risk trades.
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We're already starting up at the top of the panic zones.
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We're very overbought.
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So this isn't something you want to jump in on if you're new to the energy sector.
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We are stuck here at 17.19. If we can keep going higher then 17.58 17.97 are the next
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two targets, and they're also the top of our projected trading range.
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Now, there's Baytex back on a buy signal as of Wednesday's close.
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If we can take out the recent high, then 6.25 and 6.64 come into play.
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Then looking at Athabasca, it's the second
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day of a buy signal, new high for this stock.
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If we can break away from 4.10, then 4.49 and 4.88 are the next targets.
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Pipestone, on the other hand, is on its
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fifth day of a sell signal, new low for this move on Wednesday.
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Then looking at Uranium Energy, the stock is still on a buy signal, no change.
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On Wednesday, things would change.
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On Thursday, if we close below $4.97. If
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we can take out the recent high, which is at resistance at $5.47, then $6.25 and
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703, $7.03 would come into play if we can take out that recent high.
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Then looking at the Tamarack Valley, we're
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sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal.
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Any higher close on Thursday would give us a new buy signal.
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Again, we're up here trying to deal with recent resistance.
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If we can take out 4.10, then 4.30, and 4.49 come into play.
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Then last up, the most actively traded
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energy stock on the TSX was Canadian Natural Resources.
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Second day of a buy signal traded right up to the recent high.
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Then we've also got Suncor back on a buy signal as of Wednesday's close.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Wait for those economic numbers to come out at 8:30.
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No major trend changes from Wednesday's
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trading action, except we've got the energy sector back on a buy signal.
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Again, this is a high risk buy signal.
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You're already very overextended, and we'll just have to see if
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the price of crude oil can continue to move higher from here.
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Of course, the price of crude oil continuing to move higher is inflationary,
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and it's probably not good for the overall stock market.
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Enjoy the rest of your Thursday.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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