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00:00:02Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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00:00:04It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:06com.
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00:00:07In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board.
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00:00:11So so far, it looks like we're going to
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00:00:12see some selling at the open on Wednesday morning.
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00:00:16I don't think it's going to be enough to generate new buy signals for the major
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00:00:19indices, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:00:23Now, Tuesday was an interesting day.
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00:00:24Most of the major indices were down except the DOW and the DOW was led higher by
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00:00:29Caterpiller, which was up over $23 in closing at the high of the day.
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00:00:34So quite an incredible move for Caterpiller.
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00:00:37Now, on the back of that big move from
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00:00:40Caterpiller, the DOW was able to remain positive all day.
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00:00:43And we're looking for a close for the DOW Diamond s below $351.49 on Wednesday.
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00:00:49Not expecting that to happen.
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00:00:50And of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:00:55What didn't work on the DO?
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00:00:56Well, it was Verizon was the big loser.
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00:00:58Now, Verizon's had great recovery off the recent low.
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00:01:03The recovery was not positive enough to generate a buy signal.
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00:01:07We did run up to resistance at $34.38 and stopped.
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00:01:12And now it looks like we're going to come back down and retest the low down at
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00:01:1831.25. Notice that from the time that Verizon
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00:01:21started to recover here, that the pros showed no interest in taking control.
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00:01:26So that was a warning sign that this was
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00:01:28just a short covering rally and it has now started to fade.
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00:01:34What else didn't work on the DOW?
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00:01:35Well, Walgreens and Merck, both already on cell signals, led the DOW lower yesterday.
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00:01:42Notice Merck traded right back down to the
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00:01:44recent low, and we'll have to see if that low holds on Wednesday.
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00:01:49Also notice that we put in a high here,
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00:01:51then a lower high, and now another lower high, which of course is bearish.
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00:01:57Looking at the SPY, we need a close below
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00:02:00452.20 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal.
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00:02:03For the Triple Qs, we're looking for a
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00:02:05close below 377.36. For the IWM, we're looking for a close
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00:02:10below 194.14. And for the IWC, for the microcap stocks, we're looking for a close
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00:02:17below 112.58. Next up, let's take a look at the fear index.
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00:02:23And historically, I would tell you that a
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00:02:26close above 1426 would be negative for the stock market.
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00:02:29We saw some selling yesterday.
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00:02:31We're going to see some selling today.
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00:02:33We really need to give the VIX more room right now.
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00:02:37It's in a tight range.
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00:02:39You can see across the bottom here.
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00:02:41Yeah, we popped a couple of weeks ago, but really didn't get anywhere.
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00:02:46And so I'm really looking for a breakout above 17.
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00:02:49If that were to happen, that would probably correspond directly with new
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00:02:53daily sell signals for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, etc.
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00:02:58So we need to give the VIX a little more room at the present time.
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00:03:02Next up, looking at crypto, we're still on
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00:03:04a daily sell signal for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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00:03:08And then for the major Bitcoin stocks,
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00:03:10Coinbase and Marathon, they are still on sell signals, so that has not changed.
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00:03:17Then looking at the big cap tech stocks, we're still waiting for Apple.
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00:03:20Apple's got earnings out later in the week, and so investors may wait
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00:03:24until those earnings come out before they decide what to do next.
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00:03:28You can see the pros in the public are currently taking profits right now.
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00:03:32That has not been enough to affect the overall price.
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00:03:36They've been able to sell into some
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00:03:38strength up here, but they are liquidating at the moment.
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00:03:42Then looking at Amazon, Amazon's on a buy signal from just two days ago.
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00:03:48We had quite a wild week last week for Amazon.
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00:03:51We need to close below 129.49 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal.
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00:03:57A lot of times when you want to hold on a
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00:04:00stock longer, so let's say that you got in on the right side and now you want to
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00:04:04continue to hold for an event or quarterly earnings or dividend payment, etc.
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00:04:10It's often wise to move from the right side to the mid term chart.
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00:04:16You've been in there a while and so now
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00:04:18you want to give the stock a little more breathing room.
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00:04:20Right now, we would need a close below 127
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00:04:24on the midterm chart versus 129.49 on the right side chart.
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00:04:31Then looking at who's in control, you can
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00:04:33see that the pros gave up control last week.
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00:04:35Then they took control again, but again,
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00:04:38it does not look like they want the stock to go much higher from here.
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00:04:42Then looking at Alphabet, we had that big pop, and now I'm expecting to come back
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00:04:47and fill that gap at some time over the next couple of weeks.
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00:04:51Then looking at Meta, Meta is still on a buy signal up here.
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00:04:55It popped last week on earnings, and now we're looking for a close on net Wednesday
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00:05:00below 303.60. And you can see the pros are still in control, no change there.
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00:05:07Then looking at Microsoft, we're still on a sell signal here looking for a close
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00:05:11above 345.70 on Wednesday to give us a new buy signal.
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00:05:14Currently holding support at 328.13. If
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00:05:17that breaks, then 312.50 would be our next target to the downside.
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00:05:22Then looking at NVIDIA, still on a buy
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00:05:24signal here that would change on Wednesday with a close below 452.61. If we can take
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00:05:30out the June high, then $500 would be our next target.
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00:05:35Looking down, of course, if we break 437.50, then 406.25, and then 375 come
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00:05:42into play, and 375 is at the top of the open gap.
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00:05:47Then looking at Tesla, Tesla is still on a sell signal.
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00:05:50On Wednesday, we're looking for a close
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00:05:52above $273.04. Let's finish off this morning's
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00:05:57presentation looking at the major commodity the ETFs.
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00:06:01And the energy sector had a small pullback
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00:06:04on Tuesday, starting off with the crude oil.
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00:06:06You can see a very small pullback there.
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00:06:09A small pullback for gasoline.
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00:06:11Gasoline had an inside day or a day of indecision.
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00:06:14Natural gas, unfortunately, is still on a
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00:06:16daily sell signal, filling a gap on Tuesday.
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00:06:20We are looking to see if 6.64 will hold.
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00:06:23It is a a bearish picture here.
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00:06:25Yes, we made a higher high in June.
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00:06:28We certainly made a higher high from the May high, but now in July, we put in a
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00:06:33lower high, and now we're going to have to see if support at 6.64 holds.
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00:06:38If it breaks, then 6.25 comes into play.
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00:06:42Looking at the energy ETFs, the X LE had a small pullback yesterday.
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00:06:47Oil and gas equipment had a small
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00:06:49pullback, as did the Explorers, and as did the small cap energy stocks.
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00:06:54But certainly not concerned about possible
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00:06:56sell signals on Wednesday unless the energy sector collapses.
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00:07:02But that's not what we're seeing in the premarket this morning.
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00:07:05The GLD is still on a sell signal, no change there.
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00:07:09The SLV has come back and is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.
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00:07:14Then looking at the miners themselves, the
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00:07:17GDX is still on a sell signal, no change there.
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00:07:20No change for the junior miners.
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00:07:21And unfortunately, we've got the silver
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00:07:24miners back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.
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00:07:29Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:07:31Still looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning.
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00:07:35Have a great day.
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00:07:36Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.