Stock Market Trends- 09012023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, things are looking pretty good.

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Stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value.

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Unfortunately, we've got employment

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numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, and of course, we're in opposite land.

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Good numbers are going to be bad for the stock market.

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Bad numbers are going to be good for the stock market.

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We'll just have to wait and see how the market reacts to those numbers.

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Now, we saw a lot of bearish reversal signals on Thursday.

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We can use the Dow Diamonds as an example.

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You can see an outside reversal day.

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We actually traded higher above the previous day's high and closed below the

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previous day's low, ran up to resistance and reversed.

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That gives us a bearish reversal signal.

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Notice that the pros have not taken control in the Dow just yet.

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This is the time and place where we look for fall through to the downside.

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Now, we're not seeing that in the premarket this morning.

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Of course, it's in more important how the market closes than how it opens.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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Now, what pulled the DAO down on Thursday?

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Well, three stocks that were already on sell signals starting with

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UnitedHealthcare, followed by Boeing, followed by American Express.

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Those were the three biggest losers on the DOW.

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Now, fear is still falling.

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We saw the VIX continue to move lower yesterday.

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So yesterday's trading action isn't going to scare us too much.

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And of course, we're coming into the long weekend.

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Now, for the month of August, it was a

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negative month, but certainly no long term damage was done.

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A lot of short term damage, but not a lot of long term damage.

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The biggest winners in North America for

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the month of August were the marijuana stocks.

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Now they have lost an enormous amount of

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their value from their highs a few years ago.

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At the same time, they're extremely

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volatile, so they can often show up as the best performer or the worst performer on

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any given day, week, or month, and that will continue for quite a while.

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Here's a weekly FlyPaper channel chart, and you can see when the market started to

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really break down back in 2021, and it has not come back.

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Of course, if you're trading

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marijuana stocks, they're certainly tradable as a long-term investment.

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I think they're still extremely risky even at these price levels.

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Now, what didn't work in the month of August?

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Well, Transports were the biggest loser.

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As you can see, no major damage done there.

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Regional Banks, of course, have been in a

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downtrend for quite a while, so no joy there.

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Then last up, the TSX Global Base Metal Index was the biggest loser.

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In the Canadian market, down 7.37% for the month of August.

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Now looking at the seasonality chart, and this is a long term seasonality chart, you

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can see we get a nice run up into the middle of September, and then we get a

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pullback into late September, and then another pullback into October.

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If you look at recent performance, and this chart is from stock charts, you can

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see September is typically the worst performing month of the year, even after

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that big rally during the middle of the month.

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Now, looking at the iShares for the

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TSX 60, we're stuck here at resistance and certainly it's not permanent.

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We can certainly break out on Friday and head up towards 31.25.

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Looking at the SPY, you can see we're still stuck at resistance here.

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There's no reason why we can't break

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through it on Friday and head up towards those highs from early July.

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The Nasdaq is trying to do that so far.

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It has broken out above the 375 level, heading towards those July highs.

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Then looking at the semiconductors, we're still stuck at resistance.

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You can see if we start breaking out from

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here, 225 is our next target to the upside.

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Let's finish off today's presentation,

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taking a look at a couple of technology stocks starting with Shopify.

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Shopify gapped higher on Thursday.

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Oddly enough, I actually saw Shopify run a TV commercial during a national U.

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S. News program on Wednesday night.

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I have no idea if that's a normal thing

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and I have no idea if that was the first time they did it.

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But just oddly enough on Wednesday night, I saw a commercial.

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On Thursday, the stock popped.

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Now, if you had an order in '81.

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25 or 87.50, both of those got filled at the open on Thursday.

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Where did we open on Thursday?

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Well, we opened right at 87.50, so your order got filled.

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If you've got an order at 93.75, I would

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make it a little lower, just below where we peaked back in July.

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That would probably be a great place to

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place an order to sell and lock in some more profits on Shopify.

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Now, Shopify, gapping higher like that

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took the TSX Information Technology Index back up to just below the highs from July.

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If we can continue to move higher on

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Friday, we could be able to take out those highs.

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Then looking at ARK Innovations, 43.75 is

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our next price target, and that's where we're stuck.

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That's where we closed yesterday.

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You can see that 45.

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31 is our next target to the upside.

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Adobe is right up at the top of our projected trading range, so we could

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continue to move higher towards 625 if we break out above that on Friday.

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Then Apple stuck here at 187.50, right at the bottom of the open gap

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and looking to see if we can move higher and fill that gap on Friday.

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Then looking at BlackBerry.

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Blackberry's had a great week and has

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moved up and it started to break out above the June highs.

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And 7.81 is our next price target for BlackBerry.

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And on the weekly charts, if we want to

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keep going from here, then 9.38 would be our next target.

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If you look at what's been going on, we put in a low back in the fall of 2022.

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We've put in a series of higher lows in 2023.

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Now we're looking to see if we can break out and make a higher high.

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On a long term basis, 938 would be our next major target.

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Then looking at Salesforce, a big pop yesterday.

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But to look at what happened, the public bought up here.

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The Pros sold it all the way back down here.

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We're still a bullish day.

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Even though if it shows up as a bearish reversal day, it's still bullish because

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we certainly did not close below the previous days low.

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Then looking at price targets, if you had an order in a 225, it got filled at the

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open and then we came back down and traded through it.

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It actually opened at 228.

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That's where your 225 order would have got filled.

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237.50 is our next target, and we certainly hit that back in July.

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That is still a legitimate target to the upside.

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Looking at nVidIA, we're still up here at

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the previous high, still having trouble breaking through 500.

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If we can do that, then 531.25 would be our next target.

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And last up, Tesla. Tesla hasn't been too excitable this week.

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We are trading above the 250 level, but

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notice the pros have barely come back to take control.

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Not a lot of enthusiasm for Tesla over the

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past trading week, but maybe September will change things.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Again, this presentation is being done

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before the employment numbers come out at 8:30.

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Of course, good numbers are bad, bad numbers are good.

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We'll just have to wait and see how the market reacts.

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I think most of the volatility in the market is going to be right at the open

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and then a lot of people are going to head off for their long weekend vacation.

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That's all from me.

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The next time you hear my voice this weekend will be on Monday.

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I'll be posting a video on Monday, and

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then we'll get back to a regular schedule next week.

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Again, have a great day.

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Have a great long weekend.

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Keep safe and we'll talk to you again soon.