Stock Market Outlook 03062024
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    • 00:00:01
      Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
    • 00:00:03
      It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
    • 00:00:05
      com. While it is very early in the morning,
    • 00:00:09
      stock index futures are trading above fair value.
    • 00:00:11
      Commodities are mixed with crude oil
    • 00:00:13
      higher while gold is lower in the pre market on Wednesday morning.
    • 00:00:17
      Well, yesterday we saw a little bit of tension in the market.
    • 00:00:20
      The VIX is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday's close.
    • 00:00:25
      Things would change on Wednesday with a close below 13.
    • 00:00:28
      59.
    • 00:00:29
      Now, it was the Dow that rolled over yesterday.
    • 00:00:32
      The Nasdaq was the biggest loser, but the Dow actually generated a sell signal.
    • 00:00:36
      Now again, for people that are new, this is a short term sell signal.
    • 00:00:40
      More conservative investors are going to
    • 00:00:42
      need more evidence before they start selling.
    • 00:00:46
      The Dow Diamonds stuck up here at 390.
    • 00:00:49
      63.
    • 00:00:50
      And as you can see on the midterm chart,
    • 00:00:52
      we have a little ways to go before we actually generate a sell signal.
    • 00:00:56
      It was all about technology stocks yesterday.
    • 00:00:58
      Intel was the biggest loser on the Dow.
    • 00:01:00
      It's still on a buy signal.
    • 00:01:01
      No change there.
    • 00:01:03
      Salesforce was the second biggest loser, down over 5% on the day.
    • 00:01:07
      Trading down to the lower channel line.
    • 00:01:08
      Still looking for a close on Wednesday
    • 00:01:10
      below 296 24 to give us a new daily sell signal.
    • 00:01:15
      We do have a change in trend for Microsoft.
    • 00:01:17
      Back on a sell signal, putting in a lower high.
    • 00:01:20
      We had trouble getting over 421. 80.
    • 00:01:23
      That is still a major area of resistance for Microsoft.
    • 00:01:27
      Apple continued lower down nearly 3% on
    • 00:01:30
      the day, heading towards our next target of 168.
    • 00:01:33
      75.
    • 00:01:34
      Then we've got Unitedhealth Group making a new low for this move on Tuesday.
    • 00:01:41
      Now one stock that the market is still
    • 00:01:43
      concerned about, of course, is New York Community Bank Corp.
    • 00:01:46
      It made a low on Monday inside day on Tuesday.
    • 00:01:49
      Inside days are basically pause days, so that has not been resolved yet.
    • 00:01:55
      And then what did work on Tuesday?
    • 00:01:57
      Well, Nvidia actually closed higher on the day.
    • 00:02:00
      It is trading up in the pre market this morning.
    • 00:02:02
      Our next price target is 875, which we've previously hit.
    • 00:02:06
      It is trading below that level in the pre market on Wednesday morning.
    • 00:02:11
      Now Shopify has been on a sell signal for a few weeks now, so no change there.
    • 00:02:15
      We've got Tesla back on a sell signal on Monday, fallow through to the downside on
    • 00:02:19
      Tuesday, looking to see if it can hold the February low.
    • 00:02:23
      Let's finish off this morning's
    • 00:02:25
      presentation, taking a look at commodity stocks.
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      And we'll start off with the miners.
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      And we've got copper still on a buy signal here.
    • 00:02:32
      Copper miners traded down to the lower channel line yesterday.
    • 00:02:35
      So certainly a potential for a sell signal on Wednesday.
    • 00:02:39
      We had a lot of bearish reversal signals on Tuesday.
    • 00:02:42
      The price of gold wasn't.
    • 00:02:45
      The GLD is trading up towards 200.
    • 00:02:48
      It's trading slightly lower in the pre market this morning.
    • 00:02:51
      Now, we do have a bearish reversal signal for the gold miners.
    • 00:02:54
      It traded up to the previous high and pulled back.
    • 00:02:58
      Now, it did not close lower on the day and
    • 00:03:01
      it did not close below the previous day's low.
    • 00:03:03
      So it is a very weak bearish reversal signal for the big cap miners.
    • 00:03:08
      They were up over half a percent.
    • 00:03:10
      The junior miners were up just slightly on
    • 00:03:13
      the day, so there's not as much interest in the juniors at the moment.
    • 00:03:18
      And of course, we'd love to see more interest in the juniors than the big caps.
    • 00:03:22
      Silver reversed yesterday, closing lower on the day.
    • 00:03:26
      There's the SLV closing lower on the day.
    • 00:03:29
      After making a new high for this move, and
    • 00:03:31
      then looking at silver miners again, we made a new high for this move.
    • 00:03:35
      This is this move right here.
    • 00:03:38
      But unfortunately we closed lower on the day, so that is a bit of a concern.
    • 00:03:43
      Looking at the energy sector, starting off
    • 00:03:45
      with crude oil, we pulled back in the channel yesterday.
    • 00:03:48
      A close below 72.
    • 00:03:49
      87 would give us a sell signal for the USO on Wednesday.
    • 00:03:53
      Gasoline is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.
    • 00:03:56
      You can see we put in a lower high last Friday.
    • 00:04:00
      And then looking at natural gas, we're still on a buy signal here.
    • 00:04:05
      Moving up on Tuesday.
    • 00:04:07
      Now, looking at the major energy etfs for
    • 00:04:10
      the big caps, we're still on a buy signal here.
    • 00:04:12
      No change. No change for the small cap energy stocks.
    • 00:04:16
      We closed slightly higher on the day we've
    • 00:04:19
      closed in the channel for the past couple of days.
    • 00:04:20
      So a little concern there.
    • 00:04:22
      Looking for a close on Wednesday below 51.
    • 00:04:25
      43.
    • 00:04:26
      Now, anytime you're looking at an ETF or an index, it's a group of stocks, so it is
    • 00:04:32
      going to filter out the best performers and the worst performers.
    • 00:04:35
      In this case, the only energy stock in the Dow 30 is Chevron.
    • 00:04:40
      It's been on a sell signal for a few days now.
    • 00:04:42
      Now, the best performing energy stock on
    • 00:04:44
      the S&P 500 from Tuesday's trading action is Baker Hughes, which has barely moved
    • 00:04:50
      since generating a buy signal over a week ago.
    • 00:04:53
      On the other hand, the best performing big
    • 00:04:55
      cap energy stock is Diamondback, which is up about 20% in the last month.
    • 00:05:00
      Yesterday had an inside day and looking for a close on Wednesday below 176.
    • 00:05:07
      51.
    • 00:05:09
      Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
    • 00:05:12
      Looking for a positive open on Wednesday.
    • 00:05:15
      From what we're seeing so far, we do have some economic numbers coming out today.
    • 00:05:19
      We've got some job numbers.
    • 00:05:20
      And then, of course, we have the energy numbers coming out later in the morning,
    • 00:05:25
      which could change the direction of the market.
    • 00:05:28
      Have a great day.
    • 00:05:29
      Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
    • 00:05:31
      And at that time, we'll take a closer look at the canadian stock market.

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