Stock Market Trends- 09152023
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    • 00:00:00
      Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.
    • 00:00:02
      It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
    • 00:00:06
      In the premarket this morning, stock index
    • 00:00:08
      futures and commodities are trading above fair value.
    • 00:00:10
      So far, it looks like we're going to see
    • 00:00:13
      some buying at the open at 9:30 Friday morning.
    • 00:00:15
      Now, today is a quadruple witching day, which means the stock index futures and
    • 00:00:20
      options expire today for the month of September.
    • 00:00:23
      This happens once a quarter where everything lines up on the same day.
    • 00:00:29
      It used to be a huge event back in the
    • 00:00:31
      90s, but since a lot of traders got caught on the wrong side of this day, they've
    • 00:00:38
      learned to unwind their positions ahead of today's event.
    • 00:00:42
      It is happening.
    • 00:00:44
      It is an event, but it's not as big an event as it used to be back in the 90s.
    • 00:00:50
      Now, so far this week, we are still
    • 00:00:52
      trading within last week's range for the S&P 500 and for the NASDAQ.
    • 00:00:58
      That means that if we end this week within
    • 00:01:01
      the range, that this will be the second inside week in a row.
    • 00:01:05
      Overall price action has been contracting over the past couple of weeks, which
    • 00:01:10
      when volatility contracts, and we're talking about price volatility, not
    • 00:01:15
      options pricing, but when price volatility contracts, it will expand at some point
    • 00:01:21
      and we'll have to wait and see whether it expands to the upside or to the downside.
    • 00:01:27
      Now looking at options pricing, we can see the VIX has made a new low yesterday
    • 00:01:32
      and the upper channel line has also moved lower.
    • 00:01:35
      And so on Friday, we're looking for a
    • 00:01:36
      close on the VIX above $14.81 to give us a buy signal.
    • 00:01:41
      And if that were to happen, that would be very negative for the stock market.
    • 00:01:44
      But so far, it does not look like that's going to happen on Friday.
    • 00:01:48
      Now we've got the major US auto companies
    • 00:01:50
      in the news this morning due to strike action.
    • 00:01:54
      And there's a Ford on a buy signal coming into Friday.
    • 00:01:57
      General Motors is also on a buy signal.
    • 00:02:00
      As you can see, the market wants Ford more than they want GM right now.
    • 00:02:04
      Now, compare those two charts to their Japanese counterparts, whether we're
    • 00:02:08
      looking at Honda or Toyota, it's a totally different world.
    • 00:02:12
      Then, of course, we've got Tesla.
    • 00:02:14
      Tesla made a new closing high for this move on Thursday.
    • 00:02:18
      Now the world is still focused on inflation and crude oil is still not
    • 00:02:22
      helping with crude oil making a new high once again on Thursday.
    • 00:02:26
      That helped energy stocks move up on both sides of the border.
    • 00:02:30
      On the TSX, it was a Tamarack.
    • 00:02:33
      On the US, Diamondback Energy had a great day making a new high for this move.
    • 00:02:39
      Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60,
    • 00:02:41
      they popped yesterday and ran right up and made a new closing high for this move.
    • 00:02:49
      31.25, of course, is resistance for the iShares for the TSX60.
    • 00:02:54
      Now, the big move that we saw yesterday
    • 00:02:55
      was led by real estate, which is rather unusual.
    • 00:02:59
      That doesn't happen very often, followed
    • 00:03:01
      by industrial materials, and then utilities.
    • 00:03:03
      Utilities, of course, is a defensive play.
    • 00:03:06
      Then we see energy down the bottom there.
    • 00:03:09
      Everything was up yesterday, which is also
    • 00:03:11
      something unusual, but that's exactly what happened.
    • 00:03:15
      There's real estate popping.
    • 00:03:16
      Not only was it a big day, but the sector
    • 00:03:18
      is back on a buy signal, being led higher on Thursday by Interrent,
    • 00:03:23
      which actually traded out and closed above the July highs, which is a bullish sign.
    • 00:03:28
      Then looking at industrial, which also popped and is also back on a buy signal,
    • 00:03:33
      and that sector was led higher by Ballard Power.
    • 00:03:36
      Then in the materials world, it was Mag Silver was the big winner on Thursday.
    • 00:03:42
      Now, what happened yesterday to the
    • 00:03:44
      commodity stocks didn't really reflect what the commodities were actually doing.
    • 00:03:49
      Their silver making a new low yesterday before coming back up to the $23 level.
    • 00:03:55
      You can see that gold made a new low for
    • 00:03:57
      this move yesterday before coming back and closing slightly higher on the day.
    • 00:04:02
      It is trading higher in the premarket this morning.
    • 00:04:05
      Now looking at the gold and silver stocks, the GDX is back on a buy signal as of
    • 00:04:09
      Thursday's close, while the XGD is still waiting for close above $17.08.
    • 00:04:15
      Then looking at the SIL, we're looking for a close on Friday above $25.81.
    • 00:04:22
      Then looking at the DAO, it is back on a buy signal as of Thursday's close, joining
    • 00:04:27
      the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq still on buy signals.
    • 00:04:30
      Both are still waiting to take out the recent highs.
    • 00:04:34
      And then looking at the semiconductors,
    • 00:04:36
      chips traded back into the channel on Thursday.
    • 00:04:39
      There's an open gap to get through.
    • 00:04:41
      And then we're looking for a close above 207.64 on Friday to give us a buy signal.
    • 00:04:47
      Now, Apple still on a sell signal, no
    • 00:04:49
      change in trend there, and then no change in trend for NVIDIA, still
    • 00:04:53
      on a sell signal closing slightly higher on Thursday.
    • 00:04:57
      Now, what worked in the US?
    • 00:04:58
      Well, just like in Canada, it was real
    • 00:05:00
      estate followed by utilities and then materials.
    • 00:05:03
      Those were the big winners.
    • 00:05:05
      For real estate, we are back on a buy signal as of Thursday's close.
    • 00:05:09
      The big winner was Boston Properties, still not on a buy signal.
    • 00:05:13
      We need to close above 66:65 on Friday to give us a buy signal there.
    • 00:05:18
      Then looking at utilities, what we're on our fourth day of a buy signal for
    • 00:05:22
      utilities and the big winner on Thursday was Consolidated Edison.
    • 00:05:26
      Then looking at materials, we are back on a buy signal as of Thursday's close.
    • 00:05:30
      The big winner there was Mosaic,
    • 00:05:32
      which is also back on a buy signal as of Thursday's close.
    • 00:05:36
      Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
    • 00:05:39
      Have a great day. Have a great weekend.
    • 00:05:41
      I will not be doing a presentation over the weekend.
    • 00:05:44
      Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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