Stock Market Outlook - 09062023

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00:00:00

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
00:00:02

It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
00:00:06

In the premarket this morning, things are
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fairly quiet, stock index futures are down across the board.
00:00:11

Not enough to get anybody overly bearish
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on Wednesday morning, but we did see the VIX move up yesterday.
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If the VIX continues to move higher, we need to see a close above $15.71, and
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that, of course, would be bearish for the stock market.
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On Tuesday, we saw the US dollar index
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make a new high for this move, breaking out above the high from late May.
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And, of course, the corresponding move
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down from other currencies, including the euro and the Canadian dollar.
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If you were with us on Tuesday, we took a
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look at the price of gold and some of the corresponding ETFs.
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I mentioned that this sector looks fairly
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weak as we were making a series of lower highs and lower lows.
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Gold moved back in the channel yesterday,
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looking for a close below $1944.50 on Wednesday.
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Now, while we're waiting for the price of gold to generate a sell signal, the price
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of silver has already done so it was down sharply yesterday back on a sell signal.
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Now, we saw the major gold stocks roll over yesterday.
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We've got the major gold and silver ETFs back on sell signals.
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So looking at the GDX, the XGD, and the SIL all ending Tuesday on sell signals.
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Now, we also looked at the energy sector on Tuesday and in the premarket, crude oil
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was trading higher and ended the day higher.
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If you're trading the USO, our next price target was 78.13, congratulations.
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You had got orders filled yesterday.
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You should have orders in at 81.25 as our next target.
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Then look at the price of gasoline.
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It slipped a little yesterday.
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You should be anticipating that the demand
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for gasoline starts to taper off here as the summer driving season comes to an end.
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Yesterday was a bearish reversal day.
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Pros have given up control already and are heading lower.
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They're anticipating lower gasoline prices to go along with lower natural gas prices.
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Natural gas gap lower yesterday
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down to our next price target of 664 closed at 665.
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Now, if we take out the August lows and of course, that hasn't happened yet, look two
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lines down to 5.86, that would take us back to the lows from May of this year.
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Looking at energy stocks, they continue to
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move higher on Tuesday with the XEG and the XLE, both making new highs.
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Next up, let's take a look at the major
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stock market index ETFs that we follow, starting with the Ishares for the TSX60.
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This is looking pretty bearish.
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We closed below Friday's low after making a new high.
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It looks like we may have topped here.
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Of course, yesterday, the energy sector helped hold the TSX up, while mining
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stocks helped pull it down and it looks like the mining stocks won.
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Looking at the DOW Diamonds, we're trading back in the channel, looking for a close
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on Wednesday below $345.57. We had a bearish reversal signal on Thursday.
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Pros have not taking control while we've
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been on a buy signal for a few days now, so that's a bearish sign.
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Then looking at the S&P 500, fairly quiet trading on Wednesday.
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On Friday, we did hit our next target.
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Our next target was 453.13. We hit a high
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of 453.67. If you had an order in, it got filled on Friday, so congratulations.
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Looking at the QQQ's, a fairly quiet
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trading yesterday, inside day for the queues closing higher on the day.
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Then we had to pull back in
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semiconductors, still trading and closing above the upper channel line.
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Let's finish off today's presentation,
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walking through the most actives from New York and Toronto, starting in New York.
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Tesla was up on the day, but had an inside
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day, so it's really a day of indecision there.
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We're still on a buy signal, still trading and closing above the upper channel line.
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New high for a Tillray.
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And oddly enough, right at the top of the
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most actively traded US stocks yesterday, Advanced Micro Devices.
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Second day of a buy signal here, but I'm anticipating that we're going to have
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trouble at 112.50. That has held us in check for the last few weeks.
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No joy for Bank of America.
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Then we've got Apple and there seems to be
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a lot of sellers in just up here at the top of the open gap.
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We have not been able to fill that gap.
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We've been up here for the past three days
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trying and so far it looks like we've seen a wall of sellers up at this level.
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Then looking at Intel, new high for Intel.
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Unfortunately, we did not hit 37.50, got as high as 37.41 before pulling back.
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So sorry about that.
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If you had orders in at 37.50, Amazon, fairly quiet day, still on a buy signal.
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No change for NIO, still on a sell signal here.
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That would change on Wednesday with a close above $11.19. And then NVIDIA.
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Nvidia still struggling to break out above
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500, still on a buy signal that has not changed.
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Last up, let's take a look at the most
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actively traded Canadian stocks and a lot of new highs here for the energy sector,
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starting with Suncor and then Canadian Natural Resources.
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Manulife had a fairly quiet day yesterday.
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A small pullback did not close below the previous days low.
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TC Energy struggling here made a new high for this move.
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Then looking at Way, making a new high and then a new high for Baytech.
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Bank of Nova Scotia, big outside reversal day yesterday.
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It's moved up nicely over the past couple
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of days, but unfortunately, that looks like it's come to an end.
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Athabasca Oil Sands, new high there.
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No joy for the TD bank.
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It's been struggling to generate a new buy signal here.
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We need a close on Wednesday above $83.46. And then the first gold stock to
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show up on the most active list was B2gold.
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It rolled over yesterday back on a sell signal.
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And that's not much of after generating a
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buy signal, really no fall through to the upside.
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So B2gold investors just been sitting on
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their hands for the past couple of weeks, and now we're back on a sell signal.
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Last up this morning looking at Shopify.
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Shopify is still holding up at these levels.
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We're trying to get to 93.75. You had the opportunity to lock in some
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profits at 81.25 and then 87.50. 93.75 is still in reach.
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We did not close below the previous days low.
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So far it's not looking too bad, expecting
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a pullback at the open on Wednesday morning.
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If we start breaking down below 87.50,
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that'll probably be a clue that this particular move is coming to an end.
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Okay, folks, that is all for Wednesday morning.
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Still looking for a little selling at the open.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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