Stock Market Timing Television - 05112023

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Hello everyone and welcome to Thursday Morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from

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theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning things are rather mixed.

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We've got the Dow down 130 points while the Nasdaq is higher in the pre market.

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So we are looking for a mixed open on Thursday morning.

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Now I've recently mentioned that the stock

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market was looking very sloppy and the reason I say that is that we've seen an

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enormous amount of gaps either to the upside or to the downside, much more than

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you would normally see during an earnings season.

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And the reason for that is that investors

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are just keeping things on a very tight leash.

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They are waiting for confirmation, they're

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waiting for the earnings to come out before they take action.

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I don't know if that's going to be profitable or not to rush in after the

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fact, but a lot of investors are doing that.

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And there is an underlying current of fear in the market that is not necessarily

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reflected in the stock market, but we can see it in other places.

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So fear is not reflected in the VIX.

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We're not seeing the major stock market indices sell off just yet.

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Now, while you and I watch the stock

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market every day, of course there are other financial markets going on around

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the world and we're seeing that the smart money has been spending billions of

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dollars getting prepared for an upcoming financial crisis.

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Of course, we've all been watching

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inflation and the Fed fighting inflation by raising rates and that of course has

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put downward pressure on the regional banking sector.

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We've been watching that unfold for the past couple of months.

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But there are other financial markets that we don't necessarily watch on a daily

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basis and one of them of course is the debt market.

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You and I do not watch it that closely,

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but institutions and governments certainly do.

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And right now the cost of insuring US debt

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has gone up dramatically over the past few months.

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Now here's a table of what the cost of what are called credit default swaps.

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This table shows some of the different countries.

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I couldn't put all of them on this

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particular page, but we can start off by looking at the US and currently costs 65.

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30. Right below that is the UK.

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That's what it usually costs to insure US debt and that has gone up dramatically.

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Canada, which usually costs more than the

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US and the UK to insure, currently trading just under 40.

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Mexican debt much more expensive to insure.

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But then if you go down to the bottom of

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the page or the top of the page, you can see what it costs.

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If you are not one of the big

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industrialized countries of the world, debt is much more expensive to insure.

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Now, if we look at what's been going on in the last year, mexico has actually come

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down in price to insure their debt by nearly 20%.

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Canada has risen just 1.23%, while the US.

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The cost of insuring US debt has gone up 337%.

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That is a huge number, and that's what it looks like on a chart.

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And where does it go back to?

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Well, the financial crisis of 2008.

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Now, while you and I are watching the VIX

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down at recent lows and the Nasdaq up at new highs, there is a part of the

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financial world that is getting ready for a major financial crisis.

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Now, this crisis, of course, could be averted if the Republicans get their act

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together and come up with a solution for raising the debt ceiling.

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But so far that has not happened.

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So while we've been dealing with the

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regional bank crisis, the US banks in general still not doing well.

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That, of course, is part of the financial sector.

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And holding that down, we've got broker dealers still in pain at the moment.

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Insurance companies holding up fairly well right now, still treading water.

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Canadian banks, Canadian financial institutions not doing well again, outside

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of the insurance industry, banks and regional banks are still being dragged

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down by, first of all, the raising of rates.

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But then, of course, now we have the problem with the US debt ceiling.

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Looking at the Nasdaq, it is continuing to make higher highs.

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It stocks, tech stocks in Canada also making higher highs.

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But the rest of the market is in a pretty tight range.

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Here we've got the VIX, we made a recent low, recent high over the past two weeks,

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and we're still on a buy signal at the moment.

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Looking at the US dollar index, it's trapped in the middle of a range.

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We've got Bonds trapped in the middle of a range.

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We've got Copper trading right down at the bottom of the range.

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So Dr. Copper not doing well at the moment.

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Gold is still on a buy signal here, still

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trading above $2,000, but stuck in the middle of a range from the last two weeks.

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Then we've got crude oil.

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Crude oil trading up in the channel for the past three days, looking for a close

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on Thursday above 72.03 to give us a buy signal.

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Natural gas still on a sell signal.

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No change there.

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Then looking at the dow.

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DOW right in the middle of a range from the recent high to the recent low.

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Looking at the S&P 500, you can see that

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we may have put in a double bottom there, but we are stuck in the middle of the

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range and looking for a close on Thursday above 412.

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99.

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Then looking at the chip sector, we went up, filled the gap and pulled back.

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We're right in the middle of the range.

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Looking for a breakout of that range.

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Then looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60.

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Again, we're right in the middle of the range.

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We did generate a buy signal the other day.

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We talked about waving that off, waiting

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for the next close above the upper channel line before jumping in.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Looks like we're going to get a lower open on Thursday morning.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.