Stock Market Trends - Weekend Edition 08272023

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Hello, everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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Well, it's Sunday, August 27, the last Sunday of August, and the market is still
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chasing that big shiny object, which is Nvidia.
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We did trade up just above $500 before reversing.
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It wasn't an aggressive sell off.
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We still closed higher on the day, and we're looking to see if we can hold 437.
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50 as our current level of support.
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Looking at the weekly Right Side chart, you can see that this coming Friday, we're
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looking for a close below 409 to give us a new weekly sell signal for Nvidia.
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Now looking at a weekly chart of the SPY,
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we did trade higher on the week just by a little over three quarters of a percent.
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It was an inside week for the overall stock market.
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You can see on our weekly Panic Zone chart
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the early warning signal that went off a couple of weeks ago.
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We're trading lower.
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We're still projecting lower prices here.
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Looking at the daily Fly Paper Channel chart, you can see we traded halfway down
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the Fly Paper channel before finding some support.
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So we have a nice triangle.
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So looking for a breakout or a breakdown of this triangle, we're currently oversold
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down at the bottom of the screen here, but not aggressively oversold.
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So we haven't seen any panic selling in the S&P 500 so far.
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Coming into Monday's trading action, we'll be looking for a close on Monday above
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$443.69 to give us a new daily buy signal for the SPY.
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Looking at the VIX. The VIX had an inside week.
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It's still on a weekly buy signal that is supportive for lower stock prices.
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So on a long term basis, we're still bearish on a short term basis, we're
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bullish, as the VIX has now generated a new daily sell signal that would change on
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Monday with a close above $17.40. So we've got a new sell signal in the VIX coming
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into the end of the month and coming into a three day long weekend.
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Both of those have a bullish bias to them.
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So even if we get bad news this week, it will be dampened because of the seasonal
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tendencies coming into month end and coming into a three day long weekend.
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Now, we need to do a little reality check here.
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There is two completely different markets going on in 2023.
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Of course, we know about the Nasdaq 100
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and the big cap tech stocks that are leading the market higher.
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So currently 73% of the Nasdaq 100 is actually positive for the year.
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The Nasdaq 100 is currently up 36.71%, being led higher by Nvidia and Meta.
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And of course, these two stocks are also in the S&P 500.
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So they're also propping that index up in the other direction.
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JD.Com is down 53.17%. Then we've got Moderna down 41.28%. And of course, in
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previous years, Moderna has been a big winner, but not in 2023.
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Then looking at the S&P 500, we only have
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55% of the stocks on the S&P 500 currently positive for 2023.
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Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 15.4%, so much less than the Nasdaq.
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Now the stocks that are leading the Nasdaq
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higher are also leading the S&P 500 higher, but on the downside, its
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Advanced Auto Parts is down 56.42% on the year.
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And then we've got Enphase Energy, which is down 53.17% so far this year.
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Then looking at the Dow, well, the numbers
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are a little easier here because there's 30 stocks in the Dow 30.
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And with 16 winners and 14 losers, you've
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got one stock that is tipping the scale over from the losers to the winners.
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So 53% of the Dow 30 stocks are currently positive for the year.
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Year to date, the Dow is only up 3.63%. So
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certainly, a huge difference between the Dow and the Nasdaq.
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The biggest winner on the Dow is
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Salesforce up 57.98%, followed by Apple up 37.47%. On the losing side, it's Walgreens
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Boots down 32.39%, followed by MMM, down 17.49%.
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Then looking at the Canadian market, again, similar to the
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S&P 500, we got 55% of the stocks on the TSX composite positive for the year.
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Year to date, we're only up 2.33%, so less than the Dow.
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The biggest winner on the TSX composite is Celestica up 94.43%, followed by
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SNC-Lavalin up 79.88%. Now, what hasn't been working on the TSX in 2023?
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Well, Telus International is down nearly
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55%, and Aritzia is down nearly 48% on the year.
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Then last up, we're looking at the TSX 60.
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58% of the stocks in the TSX 60 are positive for 2023, while the TSX 60 is
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only up 1.57%. So far for the year biggest winner, where we're looking at Uranium up
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61.29%, followed by online shopping with Shopify up 60.75%. What's not working?
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Nutrien down 16.13%.
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And then we've got Rogers Communications
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down 15.72%. Okay, that's all I wanted to take a look
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at this weekend going forward for the week ahead.
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I wouldn't be surprised if it was a
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positive week going into month end and the long weekend at the same time.
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It's still pretty messy out there.
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We're looking at to see what happens to Nvidia this week.
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Does it continue to pull back or does new
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money come in and push it back to retest the $500 level?
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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There was a lot of volatility on Friday
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with news out of Jackson Hole, but at the end of the day, the market was positive,
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so we could see a positive week for the week ahead.
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That's probably not going to change things on a long term basis.
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I would imagine the market's gonna make new lows in September and October, and
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then we'll get ready for the end of year rally.
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.