Stock Market Trends- 08112023
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      Well, good morning, everyone.
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      Welcome to Friday morning.
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      It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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      com.
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      In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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      Yesterday, we were waiting for CPI numbers.
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      This morning, we were waiting for PPI numbers.
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      Just like yesterday, the volatility will expand after those numbers come out.
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      Yesterday was a rather wild day.
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      We did have the Dow up over 400 points,
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      and then it ended the day almost unchanged.
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      You can see how wide the bar was for the
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      VIX, and we were closed slightly lower yesterday.
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      Looking for a close on Friday below 14:75, that would put us back on a bullish tone
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      and we'd start looking for buying opportunities.
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      As I've mentioned several times over the
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      past month, I'm really looking for a breakout above the Fly Paper Channel.
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      The market has had times of stress over the past six months in which we traded up
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      into the Fly Paper Channel and quickly reversed.
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      And that, of course, is bullish.
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      If we can start breaking down and get a
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      new sell signal for the VIX, that would certainly be bullish.
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      If we start breaking out above the
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      Fly Paper Channel, that, of course, would add to the bearishness.
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      Looking at the bond market, the 30-year
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      bond had a wild day, traded right up to the upper channel line, then came right
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      back down and closed below the lower channel line.
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      We saw just as much volatility in the yield, and the yield came up, filled an
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      open gap, and looks like it wants to go back up and retest the recent high.
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      Of course, that's not good for the stock market if that happens.
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      A couple of stocks in the news yesterday,
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      both Ford and GM were down sharply yesterday and made new lows for this move.
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      Then we had Disney.
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      Disney was the big winner on the DAO and the S&P 500 yesterday.
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      Nice big update.
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      I don't think there's much left to go on the upside for Disney.
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      93.75 is our first mathematical price
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      target, and that's where we topped out back in June.
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      Just above that is the bottom of the open gap at 95.11. That is certainly a
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      possibility that we go up and retest that area.
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      You can see that Disney has been following the moving averages quite well.
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      The 50 day moving average acted as a
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      resistance here and here and now we've moved up to the 100 day.
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      Is the 200 day, is that going to be resistance?
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      Well, it certainly was back in May.
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      The 95.11 area is certainly a legitimate
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      target to the upside and a legitimate area of resistance.
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      Looking at what worked on the TSX, well, it was the Brookfields were the big
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      winners on the TSX yesterday, followed by Shopify.
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      Shopify can't really notice what happened there, up nearly two and a half %.
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      Of course, Shopify is a very volatile
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      stock and had an inside day yesterday, so we're really not going to notice
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      yesterday's price action unless we break out above the previous day's range.
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      What didn't work on the TSX?
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      Well, it was Canadian Tire, gapping sharply lower yesterday.
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      Looking at the major ETFs that we follow, there's the Dow Diamonds trading up
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      through the upper channel line, then closing down at the lower channel line.
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      Certainly, a possibility of a buy signal
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      on Friday if the market wants to turn around.
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      There's the S&P 500 closing almost unchanged on the day.
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      Similar situation for the Nasdaq-100.
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      Probably the biggest headline from Thursday's trading action, the SOX or the
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      semiconductors making a new low for this move on Thursday.
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      Looking at the TSX, it had a wild day
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      traded up through the upper channel line, then closed just below where it opened.
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      I guess the big headline from the Canadian
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      market on Thursday was we filled the open gap.
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      Now we're going to have to see how the market moves next.
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      We certainly have a possibility of a buy signal on Friday, but also the fact that
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      we filled the gap may be the last move to the upside at this point.
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      What worked on the TSX? Well, it was Telecom.
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      Stocks were the big winners.
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      The big losers was healthcare.
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      There's only a couple of stocks in the healthcare index.
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      When I first started, before I had the
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      Uptrend, I had a website called Just Biotechs, and I think we had 40 Canadian
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      biotechs that we were following at that time.
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      All of those companies are basically gone.
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      There's just a couple left.
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      The biggest stock by percentages from Thursday's trading
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      action was Tillray, which is down over eight and a half % on the day.
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      Then, of course, the biggest company is
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      Bausch, which was down two and a half %, making a new low for this move.
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      Looking at commodities, we saw a small pullback in crude oil yesterday, small
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      pullback in gasoline, and a bigger pullback in natural gas.
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      If you were trading natural gas, if you had an order in at 7:81, well, guess what?
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      That got filled at 8:05.
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      That was the opening price on Wednesday,
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      and then we had a nice big pullback on Thursday.
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      We're still on a buy signal here that
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      would change on Friday with a close below 7:10.
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      Then looking at energy stocks on the TSX,
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      very small pullback there, very small pullback in New York.
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      So no change in trend for the energy sector.
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      Looking at the precious metals, we had a gold move lower yesterday.
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      Silver closed slightly higher on the day, but you wouldn't really notice it.
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      And then looking at the stocks, the GDX was up slightly yesterday.
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      We had the XGD
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      up slightly yesterday and the SIL, Silver Miners down slightly on Thursday.
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      Let's take a look at those most actively traded stocks.
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      We'll use the same list we used yesterday morning just for comparison, and we'll
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      start off by looking at the US most actives.
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      Let's do a little chart workshop this morning.
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      For each symbol in our database, we have 15 charts.
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      When you're first investigating a symbol,
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      you probably want to look at all 15 charts.
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      Start with the monthly, work through the
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      seven weekly, and get to the seven daily and decide whether you want to trade this
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      stock, invest in this stock, hold it for the long term, short term, whatever you
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      want to do, you need to do that research ahead of time.
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      Then when it's in your portfolio, if
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      you're actively managing it, then you want to look at as few charts as possible
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      because you don't want to have analysis paralysis.
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      I have a custom view that includes three
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      charts for when I'm analyzing my particular portfolio.
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      We start off with a Panic Zones chart.
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      What we're looking for is either low risk buying opportunities where the stock is at
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      the bottom of the Panic Zones and a Pressure Zone is starting to form.
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      Or in this case, the market is coming off an overbot situation, and we know it's
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      overbot when it trades up to the top of the Panic Zones.
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      So that's overbot.
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      Then you're looking for early warning
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      signals, and that's how most symbols look right now.
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      They're coming off the top of the
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      Panic Zoness and you've got new early warning signals.
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      And so when I bring up my portfolio, the first thing I'm going to do is just hit
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      the down arrow key and walk through all of my stocks.
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      I'm going to spend a split second on each one because I'm looking for major changes.
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      Here's a stock that's had a major change this week.
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      Here's the early warning signal.
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      The chart started to turn red, which would have meant sell signal.
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      Here's where the first sell signal came
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      in, or the most recent sell signal, excuse me.
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      You would have sold there.
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      If you shorted the stock, you would have shorted it at the open the next day.
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      Otherwise, you're out of this stock and
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      now you're watching it continue to move lower.
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      Wednesday, we saw panic selling.
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      Yesterday was an inside day.
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      Two things have worked out here.
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      We are below the bottom of the Panic Zones, so that's panic selling.
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      And we have a new Pressure Zone forming.
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      Now, the third part of the equation, of course, is now we need to see money come
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      back into this stock and for it to start to move back up.
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      We're certainly not seeing that on Friday morning.
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      Now, to generate a buy signal on Friday, we're looking for a close above 37.70.
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      Since we had a huge gap down, we're nowhere near that at the moment,
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      but that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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      So to get a new buy signal in this stock, unless something amazing happens like
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      somebody offers to buy the company today, we're not going to see any upward momentum
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      that would be enough to generate a buy signal for some time.
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      That may take several weeks, it may take a month.
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      We'll just have to wait and see or it may never happen.
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      So maybe the stock is heading towards bankruptcy.
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      I have no idea.
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      It's still a $30 stock, so people aren't thinking that way at the moment.
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      But what I can tell you is we made a high
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      here, then we made a recently a lower high.
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      We made a low here, and now we're making a lower low.
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      So I would expect that pattern of lower highs and lower lows to continue.
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      Advanced micro devices, this one's a
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      little interesting and it's one I follow, and so I'm not happy about it.
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      But the stock is currently broken.
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      Typically, you see selling and you get down to the bottom of the Panic Zoness and
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      it pressures on forms and the stock starts to move back up.
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      Of course, there's no guarantee just how
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      far the stock is going to move after you have a low risk buying opportunity.
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      For Advanced Micro Devices, we had a high here.
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      We pulled back, Pressure Zone started to form.
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      We were expecting it to move back up and retest the recent highs.
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      The rally failed very quickly.
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      Then we set up another opportunity where we should have moved up.
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      That has failed so far.
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      We've been treading water for the past month.
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      That open gap was filled, but people still
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      are sorry or have memories of that open gap.
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      It's acting as a magnet at the moment, even though it's filled.
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      It's no longer an open gap.
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      We looked at the pros in the public the
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      other day, and they've been intertwined for weeks now.
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      Nobody has any real conviction of where
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      Advanced Micro Devices is going to go next.
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      Lucid, nothing going on with this stock at the moment.
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      Pen, interesting.
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      We popped, ran up into the open gap and have pulled back.
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      That looks like it was a one day event, not something I would have chased.
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      We need to close on Friday below $25.01, and that's probably likely to happen.
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      We came down, looks like want to fill that gap.
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      We may see a sell signal for Pen on Friday.
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      Tillray had a big up move.
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      Hopefully, you've taken some money off the
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      table on the way up, and now you're watching it come back down.
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      On Friday, we need to close in New York below $2.27, and that could happen.
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      The stock has been very volatile over the
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      past couple of days, so we'll just have to wait and see.
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      Then Amazon popped last week.
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      It's up through the top of the Panic Zoness.
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      I said I wouldn't chase it, and it hasn't come back down to fill the gap yet, but
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      I'm really not expecting it to be able to move past last week's high anytime soon.
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      Then if we go back up, there was no trend changes from Thursday's trading action.
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      We just continue to scan up till we get back up to Palantir.
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      Fairly quiet trading day for Neo, still on a sell signal, no change there.
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      Inside day on Thursday for Apple, no change there.
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      Then looking at NVIDIA, we made a lower-low yesterday,
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      certainly not as aggressive as the selling we saw on Wednesday.
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      Rivian made a new low yesterday, no change there.
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      Fairly quiet trading on Thursday for Tesla.
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      Then looking at Palantir, fairly quiet trading for Palantir on Thursday with an
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      inside day looking to see if we can hold the $15 level on Friday.
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      Next up, let's walk through the TSX most
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      actives, and we're going to use the same list that we used yesterday morning.
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      Now, as I mentioned earlier, we're going
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      to use the same stocks that we looked at yesterday morning.
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      Again, I'm using a custom view of my portfolio here.
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      You can create a custom view using any charts that you want.
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      I just like to look at three.
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      Remember, I'm managing a portfolio, I'm not doing analysis.
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      This is just an example.
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      We're using the most actively traded stocks from Wednesday's trading action.
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      The first thing I'm looking for, of course, is an early warning signal.
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      There's only three charts in this particular view.
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      Just hitting the right arrow key moves me
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      through the charts for this particular symbol.
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      And of course, hitting the down arrow key is going to take me from symbol to symbol.
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      Looking at B2gold, there was the last early warning signal.
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      Then the chart started to turn from blue to red.
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      We are down at the bottom of the
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      Panic Zoness, currently ranked as zero, and there's a Pressure Zone forming.
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      As you can see, the stock is not held in high regard at the moment.
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      The elongated Pressure Zone across the
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      bottom of the screen tells us that the stock is broken.
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      It's making a series of lower highs and lower lows.
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      Now, if you want to own this stock, well, we've got a ways to go.
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      On Friday, we're looking for a close above $4.47. That's not likely to happen and
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      that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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      Where is our next price target?
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      391 is our next price target.
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      Now, as I continue to scroll down, what
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      I'm looking for, of course, is new early warning signals.
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      Close below the previous days low is not a
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      healthy sign, but it is not a sell signal by itself.
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      We're just going to scan down.
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      No new early warning signal for Crescent Point.
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      We had an inside day yesterday.
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      11:33 was our next price target.
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      Then if we continue to move higher, the
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      top of our projected trading range is 11.72. There's Manulife.
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      We're back on a buy signal as of Thursday's close.
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      If we can get out above resistance,
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      that would be 26.56. This is not a trade I'd be that interested in taking.
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      We're already up at the top of the Panic Zoness.
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      We're coming up to resistance
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      at 26.56. That held us in check last couple of weeks ago.
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      It also held us in check back in April, so that's a major area of resistance.
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      Not sure we're going to be able to get through it in the month of August.
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      If we were coming into this and the overall market momentum was up, if the VIX
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      was on a sell signal, I'd be more bullish about some of these opportunities.
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      But when you look at manual life, we're already up at the top of the Panic Zones.
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      So not something I would want to chase.
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      Again, no new early warning signal.
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      Canadian Natural Resources currently
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      ranked at 10, very quiet trading yesterday.
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      Our next price target is $84.38.
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      Then looking at Athabasca, there's a new early warning signal up there.
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      We made a high, had a pullback yesterday,
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      so looking for a close below $3.51 on Friday, not expecting that to happen.
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      We were trying to get up to 391.
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      So far, we have not been able to do so.
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      Then, that tillray has pulled back over the past couple of days, so hopefully,
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      you've been able to lock in some profits along the way.
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      We've had two early warning signals
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      recently and it looks like we want to pull back.
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      There's an open gap way down here and there's no indication.
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      We're going to head back down to that level at this particular time.
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      On Friday, we're looking for a close below
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      $3.01 to give us a sell signal for till rate.
    • 00:15:34
      Then let's finish off with Enbridge.
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      It's the second day of a buy signal here,
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      so not expecting to be able to break out above $50.
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      That acted as resistance back in July, and
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      I would expect that to continue to act as resistance going forward.
    • 00:15:50
      Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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      Ppi numbers just came out.
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      They were a little hotter than expected.
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      Stock index futures first reaction is to the downside, but not by much.
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      Dao future is currently down 50 points,
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      so not a lot of reaction from the numbers so far.
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      But just like yesterday, we're expecting volatility to expand throughout the day.
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      Enjoy the rest of your Friday. Enjoy your weekend.
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      Next time you'll hear my voices on Sunday.
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      Next week, I won't be doing any premarket videos.
    • 00:16:20
      I will be working on some new tutorials, and we won't be posting those publicly.
    • 00:16:26
      Again, enjoy the rest of your day, and we'll talk to you again on Sunday.

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