Magnificent Seven 09072024
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    • 00:00:00
      Hello, everyone.
    • 00:00:01
      It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.
    • 00:00:03
      com.
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      In this presentation, we're going to focus on the Magnificent Seven stocks, but we're
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      going to start off by taking a look at the VIX and then looking at the major ETF's,
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      and then we'll work our way down to the individual stocks themselves.
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      Now, we saw fear rise this week, and we've got the VIX back on a daily buy signal.
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      Of course, that's negative for stocks now coming into this week, the VIX was already
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      on a weekly buy signal, and it hadn't shrugged off the, the volatility
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      that we saw back in August.
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      And so we came into this week long term bearish on the market, certainly willing
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      to give the market the benefit of the doubt that it could continue to move
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      up into the middle of September.
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      Seasonality wise.
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      We look for some selling in September into October, and then hopefully we can
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      catch a ride up into the year end.
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      Now, what did we know and when did we know it?
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      Well, on our daily Panic Zone chart for the Nasdaq 100, you can see the last time
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      an early warning signal went off and we started to move lower from that point.
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      More significant, though, is back in the summer and for all of 2024, we were
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      looking for a move up to $500, and we got that in July and then started to sell off.
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      We came back up and only made it to the lower target, the 484.
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      38 level.
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      And so, you know, anytime you put in a lower high, that's not
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      usually pretty for the market.
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      Now, we've already broken through our first target to the downside.
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      So 437.
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      50 would be our next target to the downside for the Nasdaq 100.
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      Now, while we were up hitting resistance, we also put in a bearish reversal day, and
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      that's usually, that can usually mark the top of a move in the market.
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      Now, here we are.
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      The Nasdaq 100 is on a sell signal right now and made a new low
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      for this move on Friday.
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      I don't know what strategies you're employing, whether you're short the Nasdaq
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      itself, your long puts, short calls, or if you're short the Magnificent Seven
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      ETF itself, which was down 3.
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      89% on Friday.
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      Of course, the 2X bull ETF's are all on sell signals.
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      The 2X bears are back on buy signals right now.
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      The 3X bull ETF's are back on sell signals.
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      The 3X bears, of course, are back on buy signals.
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      There's individual sector ETF's as well.
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      For technology, it could be long the bear for that sector.
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      Of course, there's always the 3X Fang ETF, which was up nearly 12% on Friday.
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      So a nice move there.
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      Of course, for all of these ETF's we have profit targets and so you should
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      have got an order filled at 28. 13.
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      Next target to the upside is 31. 25.
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      You want to put an order in up there ahead of time, of course.
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      And if it was me, I'd probably put it at 31.
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      19 instead of the 25.
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      Put it a little less than the target itself.
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      Now, looking at the Magnificent Seven stocks, they're still heavily
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      weighted in the major indices.
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      They're still the biggest publicly traded companies in the world.
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      I think Apple is the most widely held company and the most
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      valuable at the moment.
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      Of course, it was Nvidia for the longest time.
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      And then that has recently changed as chip stocks have started to sell off.
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      I think Apple's nearly 500 times the value of American Airlines.
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      So it's quite a big force in the market and being widely held.
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      If Apple starts to sell off aggressively, it's included in just about every
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      index, ETF and mutual fund out there.
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      So it could dramatically pull the market down.
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      Now so far Apple has been holding up fairly well.
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      It's been on a sell signal for four days now.
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      It's still stuck to 225.
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      The high of the day on Friday was 225. 24.
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      If it takes out Wednesday's low, then look for a move to down to 212.
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      50 as our next target and then ultimately down to 200.
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      Now, Amazon flip flopped this week, but probably the most important thing on this
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      chart is the fact that it put in lower highs.
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      So we had a high back in the start of July, then low at the end of July, then
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      another lower low in August, and now another lower low in September.
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      Now we're looking down.
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      If we take out the recent low at 168 75, then 162.
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      50 would be our next target.
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      Then looking at Alphabet, new low for Alphabet.
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      They're heading down towards 150.
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      If that breaks, 137.
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      50 would be our next target.
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      Then looking at Meta, Meta's put in a double top here.
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      It came down aggressively on Friday, hit the $500 level and closed at $500.
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      27. If we take out 500, then 468.
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      75 would be our next target.
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      Then looking at Microsoft, Microsoft broke down below 462.
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      50 on Friday.
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      We're still stuck to it, 390.
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      63 is our next target.
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      To the downside then looking at Nvidia, Nvidia had a very bad week still
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      trading and closing above $100.
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      The low on Friday was $100. 95.
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      That's a big psychological number for the market.
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      If Nvidia starts breaking down below that, the low from a few weeks
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      ago, it is down at 90. 69.
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      If that breaks, then 87.
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      50 would be our next target and then possibly down to 75.
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      But we haven't broken 100 yet, so don't get overly excited just yet.
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      Now, this is the Magnificent Seven list.
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      But we do add shopify in to give the list a little Canadian flavor.
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      It is the fourth biggest company in Canada by market cap at the moment.
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      And it's not a company that's going to change the world.
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      It's just a shopping cart, basically.
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      But here we are looking at the New York listing.
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      It's been down sharply this week.
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      Broke down below 68. 75.
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      If we want to keep going.
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      Of course we've got 62.
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      50, but then we've got the bottom of the open gap there.
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      That could act as a potential area of support.
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      We're starting to break down below the 200 day moving average.
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      You can see we ran up and found resistance at the high from the start of March.
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      That's also true for the TSX listing.
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      And there we are starting to break down below the two to day moving average.
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      And the low from or the top of that open gap is at 87.
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      42.
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      And that could certainly be an area of support looking at Tesla.
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      Tesla had a wild couple of days after generating a buy signal on Wednesday.
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      It ran up, hit our next target of 234. 38.
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      So hopefully you got to sell 50% of your position at that level.
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      And then we came down hard on Friday.
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      We're still on a buy signal here.
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      We need a close on Monday below $210. 29.
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      We closed at $210.
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      73.
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      So just above the lower chain line.
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      If we take out the recent low there at 203.
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      13 and then the psychological number of 200, then 187.
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      50 comes into play for Tesla.
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      Well, what a difference we can make.
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      You know, a week ago we were looking at the Dow and the TSX hitting new all time
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      highs, and a week later we've got the market heading being sharply lower,
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      being led lower by the chip sector.
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      This is a seasonally weak period for the market.
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      But I thought the market, given what happened last week, that we'd probably go
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      into the middle of the month before we started to see any aggressive selling.
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      Obviously I was wrong.
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      The charts were right. I was wrong.
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      We've got the VIX on a daily and a weekly buy signal right now.
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      The first thing I'm going to be looking for is to see a sell
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      signal in the daily Vixen.
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      That would tell me that the tone of the market is about to start to change.
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      We certainly don't have that going into Monday's trading action, so we're going
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      to look for continued weakness this week.
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      Enjoy the rest of your day, enjoy your weekend, and we'll talk to you again soon.

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